Ethnic cleavages and electoral volatility in Latin America

Comparative Politics

Volumn 38, Issue 1, 2005, Pages

  Madrid, Raúl ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 29044449640     PISSN: 00104159     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/20072910     Document Type: Review

References (73)

1. J. Mark Payne, Daniel Zovatto G., Fernando Carrillo Flórez, and Andrés Allamand Zavala, Democracies in Development: Politics and Reform in Latin America (Washington, DC.: Inter-American Development Bank, 2002), p. 133.
2. The standard measure of electoral volatility is known as the Pedersen index. See Mogens N. Pedersen, "Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility: Explorations in Explanation," in Hans Daalder and Peter Mair, eds., Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1983), pp. 29-66.
3. Payne, Zovatto, Flórez, and Zavala; Michael Coppedge, "Freezing in the Tropics: Explaining Party-System Volatility in Latin America," paper presented at the 1995 meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 6-8, 1995;
4. Kenneth M. Roberts and Erik Wibbels, "Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations," American Political Science Review; 93 (September 1999), 575-90.
5. Stefano Bartolini and Peter Mair, Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885-1985 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990);
6. Johanna Kristin Birnir, "Party System Stabilization in New Democracies: The Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on Volatility of Electoral Preferences" (Ph.D. diss., University of California, Los Angeles, 2001).
7. Coppedge; Roberts and Wibbels; Karen L. Remmer, "The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s" American Political Science Review, 85 (September 1991), 777-800.
8. Deborah J. Yashar, Contesting Citizenship: Indigenous Movements, the State, and the Postliberal Challenge in Latin America (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, forthcoming);
9. David Maybury-Lewis, ed., The Politics of Ethnicity: Indigenous Peoples in Latin American States (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University, David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, 2002);
10. Kay B. Warren and Jean E. Jackson, eds., Indigenous Movements, Self-Representation, and the State in Latin America (Austin: University of Texas Press, 2002).
11. Donna Lee Van Cott, "Party System Development and Indigenous Populations in Latin America: The Bolivian Case," Party Politics, 6 (2000), 155-74.
12. Donna Lee Van Cott, "Party System Development and Indigenous Populations in Latin America: The Bolivian Case," Party Politics, Ibid.., 6 (2000), p. 159.
13. Scott Mainwaring and Timothy R. Scully, "Introduction: Party Systems in Latin America," in Scott Mainwaring and Timothy R. Scully, eds., Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1995), pp. 6-9.
14. Bartolini and Mair; Remmer; Coppedge; Roberts and Wibbels; Birnir.
15. Remmer; Edward Tufte, Political Control of the Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1978);
16. Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1988).
17. Bartolini and Mair; Remmer; Roberts and Wibbels; Birnir; Pedersen.
18. Bartolini and Mair; Roberts and Wibbels.
19. Ibid.
20. Seymour Martin Lipset and Stein Rokkan, eds., Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives (New York: Free Press, 1967).
21. Bartolini and Mair, p. 212.
22. Birnir.
23. Birnir also notes that, where the party system does not represent key ethnic groups, ethnic diversity is not likely to reduce electoral volatility. See Johanna Kristin Birnir, "The Ethnic Effect: The Effect of Ethnic Electoral Behavior on the Political Development of New Democracies" (unpublished book ms., 2004).
24. Robert H. Dix, "Cleavage Structures and Party Systems in Latin America," Comparative Politics, 22 (October 1989), 23-37;
25. Kenneth M. Roberts, "Social Inequalities without Class Cleavages in Latin America's Neoliberal Era," Studies in Comparative International Development, 36 (Winter 2002), 3-33.
26. Yashar; Birnir, "Stabilizing Party Systems and Excluding Segments of Society," Studies in Comparative International Development (forthcoming);
27. Van Cott, "From Movement to Party: The Transformation of Ethnic Politics in Latin America." (unpublished book ms., 2003).
28. Martin Hopenhayn and Alvaro Bello, "Discriminación étnico-racial y xenophobia en America Latina y el Caribe," Serie Politicas Sociales, 47 (May 2001);
29. George Psacharopoulos and Harry Anthony Patrinos, eds., Indigenous People and Poverty in Latin America: An Empirical Analysis (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1994).
30. Psacharopoulos and Patrinos.
31. Hopenhayn and Bello; Anne Deruyttere, "Nativos en números," Revista BID América (September-October 1999), 15;
32. Europa World Yearbook (London: Europa Publications, various years);
33. Alexia Peyser and Juan Chackiel, "La identification de poblaciones indigenas en los censos de América Latina," in América Latina: Aspectos Conceptual de los Censos del 2000 (Santiago: CEPAL/CELADE, 1999).
34. To calculate the Pedersen index, the absolute value of the change in each party's share of the total vote (or total seats) between elections is summed, and this figure is divided by two.
35. Roberts and Wibbels.
36. Roberts and Wibbels excluded Guatemala and El Salvador on the grounds that the left had not been permitted to compete for power in these countries. However, center-left parties participated in elec lions in Guatemala and El Salvador as early as the 1980s, and by the mid 1990s the far left was also fielding candidates in these countries.
37. Data on the proportion of the population that is indigenous come from Peyser and Chackiel. Data on the effective number of ethnic groups, which is calculated as the inverse of the sum of squares of each ethnic group's share of the total population, come from Gary Cox, Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems (New York: Cambridge University Press 1997); and the Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook (Washington, D.C.: GPO, various years). Where necessary, I used interpolation to derive estimates for missing years.
38. Data on unionization rates come from the International Labour Organisation (1999);
39. Roberts and Wibbels; and the International Labour Organisation, World Labour Report 1997-98: Industrial Relations, Democracy and Social Stability (Geneva: ILO, 1997). I used interpolation to come up with estimates for missing years.
40. Data on these variables come from the World Bank, World Development Indicators on CD-Rom (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 2002);
41. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (Washington, D.C.: IMF, various years); and Roberts and Wibbels.
42. The measurement of these variables follows Roberts and Wibbels. I measured party system fragmentation as the percentage of the vote captured by the largest two parties (subtracted by one hundred) and party system polarization as the dispersion of the vote from the center of the party system, and the age of the party system was measured as the average age of the parties that captured more than 10 percent of the vote in the previous election. I used the index constructed by Roberts and Wibbels, p. 581, to measure the degree of institutional discontinuity. Their index, which ranges from zero to three, assigns one point for each of the following types of discontinuities: the adoption of a new constitution; an irregular change in executive authority; and an increase in voter turnout of more than 25 percent due to the enfranchisement of a large group of new voters. Data on these variables come from Europa World Yearbook; Mainwaring and Scully; Roberts and Wibbels; Payne, Zovatto, Flórez, and Zavala; and Michael Coppedge, "A Classification of Latin American Political Parties" (Notre Dame: Working Paper Series, Kellogg Institute of International Studies, University of Notre Dame, 1997).
43. See K. Y. Liang and S. L. Zeger, "Longitudinal Data Analysis Using Generalized Linear Models," Biometrika, 73 (1986), 13-22;
44. Mark P. Jones, "Electoral Institutions, Social Cleavages, and Candidate Competition in Presidential Elections," Electoral Studies, 23 (2004), 73-106;
45. Timothy Power, James Garand, and Caroline Fornos, "Explaining Voter Turnout in Latin America, 1980-2000," Comparative Political Studies (October 2004).
46. Mark P. Jones, "Racial Heterogeneity and the Effective Number of Candidates in Majority Runoff Elections: Evidence from Louisiana," Electoral Studies, 16 (1997), 349-58.
47. Instituto Nacional de Estadística (Bolivia), Censo de Población y Vivienda 2001, http://www.ine.gov.bo.
48. Bolivia uses a single (fused) ballot for both presidential elections and the proportional representation tier of the legislature. The data come from Fundemos, "Datos Estadisticos Elecciones Generales, 1979-1997," Opiniones y Análisis, 31 (February 1998);
49. and Corte Nacional Electoral, www.cne.org.bo.
50. I constructed the data on the effective number of ethnic groups by treating each indigenous category as well as the residual category as a distinct ethnic group. The ethnicity data come from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica.
51. The provincial-level data on the literacy and urbanization rate come from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística. The income data come from the Unidad de Análisis Politicas Económicas y Sociales (UDAPSO), Indices de Desarrollo Humano y Otros Indicadores Sociales en 311 Municipios de Bolivia (La Paz: UDAPSO, 1997).
52. The electoral data used to construct the variables on party system fragmentation, party system polarization, and the net change in total votes at the provincial level come from Fundemos and the Corte Nacional Electoral and represent mean figures for national elections between 1985 and 2002.
53. Bartolini and Mair, p. 73.
54. Eduardo A. Gamarra and James M. Malloy, "The Patrimonial Dynamics of Party Politics in Bolivia," in Mainwaring and Scully, eds.; René Antonio Mayorga, Antipolitica y Neopopulismo (La Paz: Centro Boliviano de Estudios Multidisciplinarios, 1995).
55. See Xavier Albó, "Bolivia: From Indian and Campesino Leaders to Councillors and Parliamentary Deputies," in Rachel Seider, ed., Multiculturalism in Latin America (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002), p. 95. Eight indigenous deputies from the MIR, but none from the MNR and ADN, were elected for the 2002-2007 legislative session.
56. See Wigberto Rivero Pinto, "Indigenas y Campesinos en las Elecciones: El Poder de la Bolivia Emergente," Opiniones y Análisis, 60 (2002), 36.
57. The MNR, for example, elected seventy-one indigenous council members, and the MIR elected thirteen indigenous council members in the 1995 municipal elections. See Albó, p. 84.
58. Donna Lee Van Cott, The Friendly Liquidation of the Past: Democralization and Constitutional Transformation in Latin America (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2000); Yashar.
59. Javier Hurtado Mercado, "Comportamientos Politicos del Campesinado 1978/1995." Opiniones y Análisis, 21 (May 1995), 127-54; Yashar.
60. Institute Nacional de Estadistica (Bolivia), Programa de Mejoramiento de las Encuestas y la Medición de las Condiciones de Vida (MECOVI), http://www.ine.gov.bo/mecovi/index.htm.
61. In surveys the indigenous population has expressed lower support for political parties, the legislature, and the political system in general than the nonindigenous population. See Mitchell Seligson, Auditoria de la Democracia: Bolivia, 2002 (La Paz: USAID, 2002), pp. 154-56;
62. and Gonzalo Rojas Ortuste, "Las Varias Caras de la Representation y la Legitimidad Democrática," in Democracia y Cultura Política en Bolivia (La Paz: Corte Nacional Electoral, 2001), p. 167.
63. See Rivera Pinto, p. 36. Populist and leftist parties have also recruited significant numbers of indigenous candidates for municipal elections. In the 1995 municipal elections the Movimiento Bolivia Libre elected ninety indigenous municipal council members, more than any other party. See Albó, p. 84. UCS and CONDEPA, meanwhile, elected thirty-four and twenty-four indigenous council members, respectively, in these elections, which placed them in third and fourth place in this category.
64. Stéphanie Alenda Mary, "CONDEPA y UCS, Fin del Populismo?," Opiniones y Análisis, 60 (2002);
65. Salvador Romero Ballivián, Reformas, Conflictos. y Consensos (La Paz: Fundemos, 1999);
66. Carles Ivan Degregori, "Movimientos étnicos, democracia y nación en Perú y Bolivia," in Claudia Dary, ed., La Constructión de la Nación y la Representación Ciudadana en México, Guatemala, Perú, Ecuador y Bolivia (Guatemala: FLACSO 1998), p. 206.
67. See Albó, p. 89.
68. Mayorga; Alenda Mary.
69. Mayorga, "La Metamorfosis del Sistema de Partidos," Opiniones y Análisis, 60 (2002), 81.
70. Seligson, pp. 48-61.
71. See Romero Ballivián, "La Eleccion Presidencial 2002: Una Vision de Conjunto," Opiniones y Análisis, 57 (2002), 191;
72. Van Cott, "Bolivia's 2002 Elections: From Exclusion to Inclusion," Journal of Latin American Studies, 35 (November 2003), 751-75.
73. Ibid.