A general method of incorporating forecast cost and loss in value scores

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 133, Issue 11, 2005, Pages 3393-3397

  Briggs, William ^a  

^a WEILL CORNELL MEDICAL COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION; PARAMETER ESTIMATION; PROBABILITY; STATISTICAL TESTS;

BRIGGS-RUPPERT STATISTICAL TESTING; COMPLETE VALUE SCORE (CVS); FORECAST COST; FORECAST LOSS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

NUMERICAL METHOD; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 28944455601     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR3031.1     Document Type: Article

References (8)

1. Briggs, W. M., and D. Ruppert, 2004: Assessing the skill of yes/no forecasts for Markov observations. Preprints, 17th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, AW, Amer. Meteor. Soc, CD-ROM, 2.2.
2. Briggs, W. M., and D. Ruppert, 2005: Assessing the skill of yes/no forecasts. Biometrics, 61, 799-807.
3. Briggs, W. M., M. Pocernich, and D. Ruppert, 2005: Incorporating misclassification error in skill assessment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 3382-3392.
4. Hamill, T. M., 1999: Hypothesis tests for evaluating numerical precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 155-167.
5. Richardson, D. S., 2000: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 649-667.
6. Self, S. G., and K. Y. Liang, 1987: Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests under nonstandard conditions. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 82, 605-610.
7. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.
8. Wilks, D. S., 2001: A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts. Meteor. Appl., 8, 209-219.