Value-at-risk analysis for Real Options in complex engineered systems

Conference Proceedings - IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics

Volumn 4, Issue , 2005, Pages 3697-3704

  Hassan, Rania ^a   De Neufville, Richard ^a   McKinnon, Douglas ^b  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^b LOCKHEED MARTIN   (United States)

Author keywords

Fleet Architecture; Flexibility; Genetic Algorithm; Real Options; Spacecraft Design

Indexed keywords

FLEET ARCHITECTURE; FLEXIBILITY; REAL OPTIONS; SPACECRAFT DESIGN;

DECISION MAKING; GENETIC ALGORITHMS; INVESTMENTS; PROJECT MANAGEMENT; REAL TIME SYSTEMS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SATELLITES;

LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS;

EID: 27944493946     PISSN: 1062922X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (7)

1. Dixit, A., and Pindyck, R., Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N., 1994.
2. Schwartz, E. and Trigeorgis, L., eds., Real Options and Inversements Under Uncertainty, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2001.
3. de Neufville, R., Scholtes, S., and Wang, T., "Real Options by Spread Sheet, Parking Garage Case Example," Journal of Infrastructure, ASCE, in press for 2005.
4. Saleh, J., Lamassoure, E., and Hastings, D., "Space Systems Flexibility Provided by On-Orbit Servicing: Part 1," J. of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 39, No. 4, 2002, pp. 551-560.
5. Hassan, R., de Weck, O., de Neufville, R., Hastings, D., and McKinnon, D., "Embedding Architectural Flexibility in Communication Satellite Fleets Using Real Options Analysis and System Optimization Methods," in preparation for the AIAA Journal, AIAA.
6. Hassan, R., and Crossley, W., "Multi-Objective Optimization of Communication Satellites with Two-Branch Tournament Genetic Algorithm," Journal of Spacecraft & Rockets, AIAA, Vol. 40, No. 2, 2003, pp. 266-272.
7. Goldberg, D., "Genetic Algorithms" in Search, Optimization and Machine Learning, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1989, pp. 1-25