Inter-annual variability and decadal trends in alpine spring phenology: A multivariate analysis approach

Climatic Change

Volumn 73, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 395-414

  Studer, Sibylle ^a   Appenzeller, Christof ^a   Defila, Claudio ^a  

^a FEDERAL OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY METEOSWISS   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; FUNCTION EVALUATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); ROBUSTNESS (CONTROL SYSTEMS); STATISTICAL METHODS;

EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION (EOF); INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY; MULTISPECIES; PLANT PHENOLOGY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

BIOINDICATOR; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; DECADAL VARIATION; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; PHENOLOGY;

EID: 27744566849     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-6886-z     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Ahas, R., Aasa, A., Menzel, A., Fedotova, V. G., and Scheifinger, H.: 2002, 'Changes in European spring phenology', Int. J. Climatol. 22(14), 1727-1738.
2. Ahas, R., Jaagus, J., and Aasa, A.: 2000, 'The phenological calendar of Estonia and its correlation with mean air temperature', Int. J. Biometeorol. 44, 159-166.
3. Appenzeller, C., Stocker, T. F., and Schmittner, A.: 2000, 'Climate change and natural climate variability: Chance for surprise', Integrated Assess. 1, 301-1306.
4. Beaubien, E. G. and Freeland, H. J.: 2000, 'Spring phenology trends in Alberta, Canada: Links to ocean temperature', Int. J. Biometeorol. 44, 53-59.
5. Begert, M., Schlegel, T., and Kirchhofer, W.: in press, 'Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864-2000.' Int. J. Climatol.
6. Bergant, K., Kajfe-Bogotaj, L., and Crepinsek, Z.: 2002, 'Statistical downscaling of general-circulation-model- simulated average monthly air temperature to the beginning of flowering of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) in Slovenia', Int. J. Biometeorol. 46, 22-32.
7. Braswell, B. H., Schimel, D. S., Linder, E., and Moore, B. I.: 1997, 'The response of global terrestrial ecosystems to interannual temperature variability', Science 278, 870-872.
8. Bretherton, C. S., Smith, C., and Wallace, J. M.: 1992, 'An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data', J. Clim. 6(5), 541-560.
9. Buermann, W., Anderson, B., Tucker, C. J., Dickinson, R. E., Lucht, W., Potter, C. S., and Myneni, R. B.: 2003, 'Interannual covariability in northern hemisphere air temperatures and greenness associated with El Niño-Southern oscillation and the arctic oscillation', J. Geophys. Res. 108(D13), 11,1-11,16.
10. Cayan, D. R., Kammerdiener, S. A., Dettinger, M. D., Caprio, J. M., and Peterson, D. H.: 2001, 'Changes in the onset of spring in the western united states', Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82(3), 399-415.
11. Chmielewski, F. M. and Rötzer, T.: 2001, 'Response of tree phenology to climate change across Europe', Agric. For. Meteorol. 108, 101-112.
12. Chmielewski, F. M. and Rötzer, T.: 2002, 'Annual and spatial variability of the beginning of growing season in Europe in relation to air temperature changes', Clim. Res. 19(3), 257-264.
13. Defila, C. and Clot, B.: 2001, 'Phytophenological trends in Switzerland', Int. J. Biometeorol. 45, 203-207.
14. Efroymson, M. A.: 1960, 'Multiple regression analysis', in Ralston, A. and Wilf, H. S. (eds.), Mathematical Methods for digital Computers, Wiley, New York, pp. 191-203.
15. Fitter, A. H., Fitter, R. S. R., Harris, I. T. B., and Williamson, M. H.: 1995, 'Relationships between first flowering date and temperature in the flora of a locality in central England', Funct. Ecol. 9, 55-60.
16. Heide, O. M.: 1993, 'Dormancy release in beech buds (Fagus sylvatica) requires both chilling and long days', Physiol. Plant. 89, 187-191.
17. Heikinheimo, M. and Lappalainen, H.: 1997, 'Dependence of the flower bud burst of some plant taxa in Finland on effective temperature sum: Implications for climate warming', Ann. Bot. Fennici 34(4), 229-243.
18. IPCC: 2001, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p. 398.
19. Los, S. O., Collatz, G. J., Bounoua, L., Sellers, P. J., and Tucker, C. J.: 2001, 'Global interannual variations in sea surface temperature and land surface vegetation, air temperature, and precipitation', J. Clim. 14, 1535-1549.
20. Maak, K. and von Storch, H.: 1997, 'Statistical downscaling of monthly mean air temperature to the beginning of flowering of Galanthus nivalis L. in Northern Germany', Int. J. Biometeorol. 41, 5-12.
21. Matulla, C., Scheifinger, H., Menzel, A., and Koch, E.: 2003, 'Exploring two methods for statistical downscaling of Central European phenological time series', Int. J. Biometeorol. 48, 56-64.
22. Menzel, A.: 2000, 'Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996', Int. J. Biometeorol. 44, 76-81.
23. Menzel, A.: 2003, 'Plant phenological anomalies in Germany and their relation to air temperature and NAO', Clim. Change 57, 243-263.
24. Menzel, A., Estrella, N., and Fabian, P.: 2001, 'Spatial and temporal variability of the phenological seasons in Germany from 1951-1996', Global Change Biol. 7(6), 657-666.
25. Miller, A. J.: 1990, Subset Selection in Regression, Chapman and Hall, London, p. 229.
26. North, G. R., Bell, T. L., Cahalan, R. F., and Moeng, F. J.: 1982, 'Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions', Mon. Weather Rev. 110(7), 699-706.
27. Parmesan, C., Ryrholm, N., Stefanescu, C., Hill, J. K., Thomas, C. D., Descimon, H., Huntley, B., Kaila, L., Kullberg, J., Tammaru, T., Tennent, W. J., Thomas, J. A., and Warren, M.: 1999, 'Polewards shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming', Nature 399, 579-583.
28. Parmesan, C. and Yohe, G.: 2003, 'A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems', Nature 421, 37-42.
29. Penuelas, J., Filella, I., and Comas, P.: 2002, 'Changed plant and animal life cycles from 1952 to 2000 in the Mediterranean region', Global Change Biol. 8(6), 531-544.
30. Roetzer, T., Wittenzeller, M., Haeckel, H., and Nekovar, J.: 2000, 'Phenology in central Europe - differences and trends of spring phenophases in urban and rural areas', Int. J. Biometeorol. 44, 60-66.
31. Root, T. L., Price, J. T., Hall, K. R., Schneider, S. H., Rosenzweig, C., and Pounds, J. A.: 2003, 'Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants', Nature 421, 57-60.
32. Schaber, J. and Badeck, F. W.: 2003, 'Physiology-based phenology models for forest tree species in Germany', Int. J. Biometeorol. 47, 193-201.
33. Scheifinger, H., Menzel, A., Koch, E., Peter, C., and Ahas, R.: 2002, 'Atmospheric mechanisms governing the spatial and temporal variability of phenological phases in central Europe', Int. J. Climatol. 22(14), 1739-1755.
34. Schwartz, M. D. and Reiter, B. E.: 2000, 'Changes in North American spring', Int. J. Climatol. 20(8), 929-932.
35. Spano, D., Cesaraccio, C., Duce, P., and Snyder, R. L.: 1999, 'Phenological stages of natural species and their use as climate indicators', Int. J. Biometeorol. 42, 124-133.
36. Sparks, T. H.: 1999, 'Phenology and the changing pattern of bird migration in Britain', Int. J. Biometeorol. 42, 134-138.
37. Sparks, T. H. and Jeffree, E. P.: 2000, 'An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK', Int. J. Biometeorol. 44, 82-87.
38. S-PLUS: 2000, S-PLUS 6 for Unix. Seattle, WA, Insightful Corporation.
39. Stöckli, R. and Vidale, P. L.: 2004, 'European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20 year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset', Int. J. Remote Sens. 25(17), 3303-3330.
40. Thomas, C. D. and Lennon, J. J.: 1999, 'Birds extend their ranges northwards', Nature 399, 213.
41. Van Vliet, A. J. H., Overeem, A., De Groot, R. S., Jacobs, A. F. G., and Spieksma, F. T. M.: 2002, 'The influence of temperture and climate change on the timing of pollen release in the Netherlands', Int. J. Climatol. 22(14), 1757-1767.
42. Visser, M. E. and Hollemann, L. J. M.: 2001, 'Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of oak and winter moth phenology', Proc. R. Soc. London B 268, 189-194.
43. Walther, G. R., Carraro, G., and Klötzli, F.: 2001, 'Evergreen broad-leaved species as indicators for climate change', in Walther, G. R., Burga, C. A., and Edwards, P. J. (eds.), "Fingerprints" of Climate Change, Kluwer Academic Publishers, New York, pp. 151-161.
44. Walther, G. R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Bairlein, F.: 2002, 'Ecological responses to recent climate change', Nature 416, 389-395.