Risk modeling to identify patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis most at risk of stroke

Neurological Research

Volumn 27, Issue SUPPL. 1, 2005, Pages

  Rothwell, Peter M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Atherosclerosis; Carotid stenosis; Endarterectomy; Risk modeling; Stroke

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGED; ATHEROSCLEROSIS; CAROTID ARTERY OBSTRUCTION; CAROTID ARTERY SURGERY; CONTROLLED STUDY; ENDARTERECTOMY; FEMALE; HUMAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; RELIABILITY; REVIEW; RISK; RISK ASSESSMENT; STROKE; SYMPTOMATOLOGY;

ADULT; AGED; CAROTID STENOSIS; CEREBROVASCULAR ACCIDENT; FEMALE; HUMANS; MALE; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 27144436173     PISSN: 01616412     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1179/016164105X25298     Document Type: Review

References (51)

1. European Carotid Surgery Trialists' Collaborative Group. MRC European Carotid Surgery Trial. Interim results for symptomatic patients with severe (70-99%) or with mild (0-29%) carotid stenosis. Lancet 1991; 337: 1235-1243.
2. North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial Collaborators. Beneficial effect of carotid endarterectomy in symptomatic patients with high-grade carotid stenosis. N Engl J Med 1991; 325: 445-453
3. Fields WS, Maslenikov V, Meyer JS, et al. Joint study of extracranial arterial occlusion. V. Progress report on prognosis following surgery or non-surgical treatment for transient cerebral ischaemic attacks and cervical carotid artery lesions. J Am Med Ass 1970; 211: 1993-2003
4. Shaw DA, Venables GS, Cartilidge NE, et al. Carotid endarterectomy in patients with transient cerebral ischaemia. J Neurol Sci 1984; 64: 45-53
5. Mayberg MR, Wilson E, Yatsu F, et al. Carotid endarterectomy and prevention of cerebral ischemia in symptomatic carotid stenosis. Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program 309 Trialist Group. J Am Med Ass 1991; 266: 3289-3294
6. European Carotid Surgery Trialists' Collaborative Group. Randomized trial of endarterectomy for recently symptomatic carotid stenosis: final results of the MRC European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST). Lancet 1998; 351: 1379-1387
7. North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial Collaborators: benefit of carotid endarterectomy in patients with symptomatic moderate or severe stenosis. N Engl J Med 1998; 339: 1415-1425
8. Rothwell PM, Gibson RJ, Slattery J, et al. Equivalence of measurements of carotid stenosis: a comparison of three methods on 1,001 angiograms. Stroke 1994; 25: 2435-2439
9. Rothwell PM, Gutnikov SA, Warlow CP for the ECST. Re-analysis of the final results of the European Carotid Surgery Trial. Stroke 2003; 34: 514-523
10. Rothwell PM, Eliasziw M, Gutnikov SA, et al. for the Carotid Endarterectomy Trialists' Collaboration. Pooled analysis of individual patient data from randomized controlled trials of endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis. Lancet 2003; 361: 107-116
11. Johnston DC, Goldstein LB. Clinical carotid endarterectomy decision making: Non-invasive vascular imaging versus angiography. Neurology 2001; 56: 1009-1015
12. Norris J, Rothwell PM. Noninvasive carotid imaging to select patients for endarterectomy: is it really safer than conventional angiography? Neurology 2001; 56: 990-991
13. Rothwell PM, Pendlebury ST, Wardlaw J, et al. Critical appraisal of the design and reporting of studies of imaging and measurement of carotid stenosis. Stroke 2000; 31: 1444-1450
14. Bermann SS, Devine JJ, Erdos LS, et al. Distinguishing carotid artery pseudo-occlusion with colour-flow Doppler. Stroke 1995; 26: 434-438
15. Ascher E, Markevich N, Hingorani A, et al. Pseudo-occlusions of the internal carotid artery: a rationale for treatment on the basis of a modified duplex scan protocol. J Vasc Surg 2002; 35: 340-350
16. Morgenstern LB, Fox AJ, Sharpe BL, et al, for the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET) Group. The risks and benefits of carotid endarterectomy in patients with near occlusion of the carotid artery. Neurology 1997; 48: 911-915
17. Rothwell PM, Warlow CP for the European Carotid Surgery Trialists' Collaborative Group. Low risk of ischaemic stroke in patients with collapse of the internal carotid artery distal to severe carotid stenosis: cerebral protection due to low post-stenotic flow? Stroke 2000; 31: 622-630
18. Rothwell PM, Warlow CP on behalf of the ECST Collaborators: Prediction of benefit from carotid endarterectomy in individual patients: A risk-modeling study. Lancet 1999;353:2105-2110
19. Alamowitch S, Eliasziw M, Algra A, et al. for the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET) Group. Risk, causes, and prevention of ischaemic stroke in elderly patients with symptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis. Lancet 2001; 357: 1154-1160
20. Benavente O, Eliasziw M, Streifler JY, et al. for the NASCET Collaborators. Prognosis after transient monocular blindness associated with carotid artery stenosis. N Engl J Med 2001; 345: 1084-1090
21. Paddock-Eliasziw LM, Eliasziw M, Barr HW, et al. for the NASCET Group: Long-term prognosis and the effect of carotid endarterectomy in patients with recurrent ipsilateral ischemic events. Neurology 1996; 47: 1158-1162
22. Inzitari D, Eliasziw M, Sharpe BL, et al. for the NASCET Group: Risk factors and outcome of patients with carotid artery stenosis presenting with lacunar stroke. Neurology 2000; 54: 660-666
23. Streifler JY, Eliasziw M, Benavente OR, et al, for the NASCET Group. Prognostic importance of leukoaraiosis in patients with symptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis. Stroke 2002; 33: 1651-1655
24. Eliasziw M, Streifler JY, Fox AJ, et al. Significance of plaque ulceration in symptomatic patients with high-grade carotid stenosis. North American Symptomatic Endarterectomy Trial. Stroke 1994; 25: 304-308
25. Kappelle LJ, Eliasziw M, Fox AJ, et al, for the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial Group. Importance of intracranial atherosclerotic disease in patients with symptomatic stenosis of the internal carotid artery. Stroke 1999; 30: 282-286
26. Henderson RD, Eliasziw M, Fox AJ, et al, for the NASCET Group. Angiographically defined collateral circulation and risk of stroke in patients with severe carotid artery stenosis. Stroke 2000; 31: 128-132
27. Kappelle LJ, Eliasziw M, Fox AJ, et al, for the NASCET Group. Small, unruptured intracranial aneurysms and management of symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Neurology 2000; 55: 307-309
28. Gasecki AP, Eliasziw M, Ferguson GG, et al, for the NASCET Group. Long-term prognosis and effect of endarterectomy in patients with symptomatic severe carotid stenosis and contralateral carotid stenosis or occlusion: results from NASCET. J Neurosurg 1995; 83: 778-782
29. Rothwell PM, Eliasziw M, Gutnikov SA, et al, for the Carotid Endarterectomy Trialists' Collaboration. Endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis in relation to clinical subgroups and the timing of surgery. Lancet 2004; 363: 915-924
30. Asymptomatic Carotid Atherosclerosis Study Group. Carotid endarterectomy for patients with asymptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis. J Am Med Ass 1995; 273: 1421-1428
31. Halliday A, Mansfield A, Marro J, et al. MRC Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST) Collaborative Group. Prevention of disabling and fatal strokes by successful carotid endarterectomy in patients without recent neurological symptoms: randomized controlled trial. Lancet 2004; 363: 1491-1502
32. Stiller CA. Centralised treatment, entry to trials and survival. Br J Cancer 1994; 70: 352-362
33. Wennberg DE, Lucas FL, Birkmeyer JD, et al. Variation in carotid endarterectomy mortality in the Medicare population: trial hospitals, volume, and patient characteristics. J Am Med Ass 1998; 279: 1278-1281
34. Bond R, Rerkasem K, Rothwell PM. A systematic review of the associations between age and sex and the operative risks of carotid endarterectomy. Cerebrovasc Dis 2005 (in press)
35. Whisnant JP, Matsumoto N, Elveback LR. Transient cerebral ischemic attacks in a community. Rochester, Minnesota, 1955 through 1969. Mayo Clin Proc 1973; 48: 194-198
36. Dennis M, Bamford J, Sandercock P, et al. Prognosis of transient ischemic attacks in the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project. Stroke 1990; 21: 848-853
37. Lovett J, Dennis M, Sandercock PAG, et al. The very early risk of stroke following a TIA. Stroke 2003; 34: e138-e40
38. Coull A, Lovett JK, Rothwell PM, on behalf of the Oxford Vascular Study. Early risk of stroke after a TIA or minor stroke in a population-based incidence study. Br Med J 2004; 328: 326-328
39. Lovett JK, Coull A, Rothwell PM, on behalf of the Oxford Vascular Study. Early risk of recurrent stroke by aetiological subtype: implications for stroke prevention. Neurology 2004; 62: 569-574
40. Blaisdell WF, Clauss RH, Galbraith JG, et al. Joint Study of Extracranial Arterial Occlusion, IV: a review of surgical considerations. J Am Med Ass 1969; 209: 1889-1895
41. Brandl R, Brauer RB, Maurer PC. Urgent carotid endarterectomy for stroke in evolution. Vasa 2001; 30: 115-121
42. Bond R, Rerkasem K, Rothwell PM. A systematic review of the risks of carotid endarterectomy in relation to the clinical indication and the timing of surgery. Stroke 2003; 34: 2290-2301
43. The Intercollegiate Working Party for Stroke. National Clinical Guidelines for Stroke. London: Royal College of Physicians, 2000
44. Biller J, Feinberg WM, Castaldo JE, et al. Guidelines for carotid endarterectomy: a statement for healthcare professionals from a special writing group of the Stroke Council, American Heart Association. Circulation 1998; 97: 501-509
45. Rothwell PM. Can overall results of clinical trials be applied to all patients? Lancet 1995; 345: 1616-1619
46. Nanchahal K, Duncan JR, Durrington PN, et al. Analysis of predicted coronary heart disease risk in England based on Framingham study risk appraisal models published in 1991 and 2000. Br Med J 2002; 325: 194-195
47. Laupacis A, Boysen G, Connolly S, et al. Risk factors for stroke and efficacy of antithrombotic therapy in atrial fibrillation. Analysis of pooled data from five randomised controlled trials. Arch Intern Med 1994; 154: 1449-1457
48. Pearce LA, Hart RG, Halpern JL. Assessment of three schemes for stratifying stroke risk in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Am J Med 2000; 109: 45-51
49. Hankey GJ, Slattery JM, Warlow CP: Transient ischaemic attacks: Which patients are at high (and low) risk of serious vascular events? J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiat 1992; 55: 640-652
50. Kernan WN, Viscoli CM, Brass LM, et al. The Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI II): a clinical prediction instrument for patients with transient ischaemia and non-disabling ischaemic stroke. Stroke 2000; 31: 456-462
51. Rothwell PM, Mehta Z, Howard SC, et al. From subgroups to individuals: general principles and the example of carotid endartectomy. Lancet 2005; 365: 256-265