A history of Space and limits to growth

JBIS - Journal of the British Interplanetary Society

Volumn 51, Issue 9, 1998, Pages 323-336

  Hempsell, C M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

LAUNCH SYSTEM; MODELLING TECHNIQUES;

EID: 2642541345     PISSN: 0007084X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (118)

1. T.R. Malthus, "An Essay on the Principle of Population". Originally published in 1797 and further versions published thereafter. This author used an edition edited by Donald Winch, Cambridge, 1992, ISBN 0 521 41954 9
2. Paul Kennedy, Preparing for the Twenty First Century, Harper Collins, 1993, ISBN 0 00 215705 5 In fairness to Malthus, it should be pointed out that the factors Paul Kennedy then goes on to discuss are actually all covered in the Essay, so Malthus cannot with justice be accused of ignoring them. The phrase 'gigantic inevitable famine' comes from a paragraph describing the last of the many results of the principle of population and Malthus was probably not happy with the emotive language as he left the paragraph out of later editions.
3. Meadow & Meadows et. al., The Limits to Growth, Pan, 1974, ISBN 0 330 24169 9.
4. J.W.Forrester, World Dynamics, Wright Allen, 1971.
5. K.E. Tsiolkovsky, The Exploration of the Universe With Reaction Machines, published in 1911. From his collected works dated 1954.
6. Tsiolkovsky seems in error here as the actual increase due to 1 % per year for 1000 years is nearly 21,000 times, an interesting mistake for the man often credited with the "rocket equation".
7. Williams Sims Bainbridge, The Spaceflight Revolution - A Sociological Study, John Wiley, 1976, ISBN 0-471-04306-0.
8. Herman Oberth, "Ways to Spaceflight", 1929.
9. J.D. Bernal, The World, The Flesh, and The Devil, Kegan Paul, Trench, Tubner 1929. (Reprinted by Jonathan Cape 1970).
10. The,Film Conquest of Space, Producer, George Pal; Director, Byron Haskin; Paramount, 1955.
11. Willy Ley and Chesley Bonstell, The Conquest of Space, Viking Press, 1949.
12. John Bosan, Future Tense: The Cinema of Science Fiction, MacDonnald James, 1978.
13. Willy Ley, The Exploration of Mars, Viking Press 1956.
14. Willy Ley, Rockets Missiles and Space Travel, Viking 1957.
15. Willy Ley, Harnessing Space, Collier Macmillian, 1963.
16. Dan Dare, Pilot of the Future which was the first Dan Dare adventure, published in the "Eagle" Hulton Press, 14th April 1950 until 28th Sept 1951. Republished in book form by Patrick Hawkey Publishing Ltd., 1987, ISBN 0 948248 45 9.
17. H.G. Wells, The War of the Worlds, Heinemann, 1898.
18. Lloyd Mallan, Men, Rockets and Space, Cassell and Co Ltd., 1956.
19. Carsbie C. Adams, Spaceflight, McGraw-Hill, 1958.
20. Donald Cox & Michael Stoiko, Space Power - What it Means to You, John C. Winston Company, 1958.
21. Proverbs 29:18. Authorised King James Version. Modern translations get closer to the original meaning by using "prophesy" instead of "vision". However," the power behind the words in the authorised version remain.
22. Fairfield Osborn, Our Plundered Planet, Little, Brown and Company, (date ?).
23. Arthur C. Clarke, "Profiles of the Future", Victor Gollancz, 1962.
24. William K. Hartmann, et. al., Out of the Cradle, Workman Publishing, 1984, ISBN 0 89480 770 6.
25. R.C. Parkinson, Citizens of the Sky, 2100 Ltd., 1987, ISBN 0 9512989 0 9.
26. Gilbert Burch, in The Space Industry - America's Newest Giant by the editors of Fortune, Prentice Hall, 1962.
27. Paul Campbell, Earlhman, Spaceman, Universal Man, Pagent Press, 1965.
28. Dandridge M. Cole & Donald W. Cox, Islands in Space - The Challenge of the Planetoids, Chilton Books, 1964.
29. Peter E. Glaser, "Power From the Sun: Its Future", Science, Vol. 162, Nov., 1968.
30. Issac Asimov, "Reason", Astounding Science Fiction, 1941
31. Peter E. Glaser, "Power without Pollution" NASA SP-313 Space for Mankind's Benefit 1978.
32. Gordon Woodcock, "Solar Satellite - Space Key to Our Future", Aeronautics and Astronautics, Vol.15, No 7/8, July-August 1977.
33. L.J. Wittenberg et. al., "Lunar Source of He3 for Commercial Fusion Power", Fusion Technology, Vol.10, No 10, 1986.
34. T.A. Heppenheimcr, Colonies in Space, Warner, 1977, ISBN 0-446-81-581-0.
35. Stewart Brand, Space Colonies, Penguin, 1977, ISBN 0 14 00.4805 7.
36. R.C. Parkinson, "The Space Economy of 2050 AD", Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, Vol.44, No 3, March 1991.
37. G.K. O'Niell, Colonization of Lagrangia, Nature, August 23, 1974.
38. G.K. O'Niell, "The Colonisation of Space", Physics Today, September 1974.
39. Marco C. Bernasconi and Arthur R. Woods, "Implementing The Space Option", IAA.8.1-93-764, presented at the 44th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, Graz, Austria, 1993.
40. Gerard K O'Neill, The High Frontier, Human Colonies in Space, Jonathan Cape, 1976, ISBN 0 224 01406 4.
41. Kenneth Gatland, The Illustrated Encyclopaedia of Space Technology, Salamander, 1981.
42. Wendy Baker, America in Space, Crescent 1986, ISBN 0-517-60364-0.
43. Harry L. Shipman, Space 2000, Plenum, 1987, ISBN 0-306-42534-3.
44. Michael C. Simon, Keeping the Dream Alive, Earth Space Operations, 1987, ISBN-915391 28 7.
45. Freeman Dyson, in Men in Space, ed. by Eugiene Rabinowitch and Richard S. Lewis, MTP, 1969, ISBN 85200 006 5.
46. Freeman J. Dyson, The World, The Flesh, and The Devil, 3rd J.D. Bernal Lecture, delivered at Birkbeck College, London, 16th May 1972.
47. Adrian Berry, The Next Ten Thousand Years, Jonathan Cape, 1974, ISBN 0 224 00966 4.
48. Sebastian von Hoerner, "Population Explosion and Interstellar Expansion", JBIS, Vol.28, No.ll, Nov, 1975. This paper was published earlier in "Einhiet und Viethiet" eds. Scheibe and Sussmann, 1972.
49. Robert F. Frietag, "Man's Future in Space", Spaceflight Vol. 17, No.3, March 1975.
50. Jesco Von Puttkamer, "The Next 25 years: Industrialisation of Space: Rationale for Planning", JBIS, Vol.30, No.7, 1977.
51. Michael A.G. Michaud, "Escaping Limits to Growth", Spaceflight, Vol.17 No.4, April 1975.
52. Michael A.G. Michaud, "Spaceflight Colonisation, and Independence: A Synthesis", JBIS, Vol.30, Part 1 No. 3, March 1977; Part 2, No. 6, June 1977.
53. Arthur Kantrowitz, "The Relevance of Space" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, Vol. 27, No. 4 April 1971.
54. Marsha Freeman, How We Got to The Moon, 21st Century Science Associates, 1993, ISBN 0-9628134-1-9.
55. Krafft A. Ehricke,"Astrogenic Environments: The Effect of Stellar Spectral Classes on the Evolutionary Pace of Life", Spaceflight, Vol.14, No.1, January 1972.
56. John C.L. Hulley, "SPACE - Road to Survival", Aeronautics and Astronautics, Vol.12, No.5, May 1974.
57. Krafft A. Ehricke, "The Extraterrestrial Imperative", The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, November 1971.
58. Krafft A. Ehricke, "Extraterrestrial Imperative: Evolutionary Logic", JBIS, Part 1, Vol.32, No.8, August 1979; Part 2, Vol.32, No. 11 November 1979.
59. Marsha Freeman, "Krafft Ehricke's Extraterrestrial Imperative: A Memoir", IAA-94-IAA.2.1.617, presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, Jerusalem, 1994.
60. Sir Mark Oliphant F.R.S., in, Pioneering in Outer Space, Heinemann, 1971 ISBN 0 435 68281 4.
61. Julian Simon and Herman Kahn, The Resourceful Earth Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1984.
62. B. Hultqvist, "On the Role of Space in the Next Century", IAA-97-IAA.8.1.01, presented at the 48th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1997, Turin, Italy. This paper needs a correction as it describes Martin (77) as the first to introduce space industrialisation into global dynamic modelling, whereas Vajk (64) was clearly earlier.
63. Donella H. Meadows et.al., Beyond the Limits, Earthscan, 1992, ISBN 1-85383-30-1.
64. J.Peter Vajk, "The Impact of Space Colonisation on World Dynamics", Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.9, pp. 361, 1976.
65. D.R. Tuerpe, "A Two Sector World Model", University of California, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory preprint, UCRL-75500, Livermore, California (December, 1974).
66. J. Peter Vajk, Doomsday Has Been Cancelled, Peace Press, 1978, ISBN 0-915238-24-1.
67. Daniel O. Graham, "Space Policy 2000 -Prime", The Journal of Practical Applications In Space, Vol.3, No.4, Summer 1992.
68. Phillip R. Harris, "Cultural Implications of Space Exploration", The Journal of Practical Applications In Space, Vol.2, No.2, Winter 1991.
69. G Harry Stine, 'The Third Industrial Revolution: The Exploitation of the Space Environment", Spaceflight, Vol. 16, No. 9, September 1974.
70. R.C. Parkinson, "Take off Point for a Lunar Colony", Spaceflight, Vol. 16, No. 9, September 1974.
71. R.C. Parkinson, "The Colonisation of Space", Spaceflight, Vol.17, No.3, March 1975.
72. R.C. Parkinson, "The Resources of the Solar System", Spaceflight, Vol.17, No.4, April 1975.
73. W.H. Gillings, "The Effects of Interplanetary Flight" JBIS, Vol.9, No.3, May 1950.
74. Arthur C. Clarke, "The Challenge of the Spaceship", JBIS, Vol.6, No.3, December 1946.
75. JBIS, Vol.9, No.4, July 1950.
76. "The State of the World Population 1992", Report of the United Nations' Fund for Population Activities April 1990.
77. Anthony R. Martin, "Space Resources and the Limits to Growth", JBIS, Vol.38, June 1985.
78. A.V. Cleaver, "On the Realisation of Projects: With Special Reference to O'Niell Space Colonies and the Like", JBIS, Vol.30, No.8, August 1977.
79. F.W. Schultz, "The Effect of Investment in Extraterrestrial Resources and Manufacturing on Limits to Growth", JBIS, Vol.41, November 1989.
80. Norihisa Kaneda, Yoshiki Yamagiwa and Kyoichi Kuriki, "The Influences of the Developments of Space Around the Earth on the Earth's Ecological and Economics Systems", presented at the 10th IS AS Space Energy Symposium, February 1991.
81. Yoshiki Yamagiwa and Makoto Nagatomo, "World Dynamics Simulation Model With Solar Power satellites", presented at the 10th ISAS Space Energy Symposium, February 1991.
82. Yoshiki Yamagiwa and Makoto Nagatomo, "Analytical Study on Space Transport Cost Impact on SPS by Evaluation Model of Development of SPS", presented at the 11th ISAS Space Energy Symposium, February 1992.
83. Yoshiki Yamagiwa, Norihisa Kaneda and Yoshio Ishikawa, "The Evaluation Model of Development of Solar Power satellites using WORLD-3", presented at the 12th ISAS Space Energy Symposium, March 1993.
84. Alan Bond, "The Extraterrestrial Revolution", a commemorative lecture presented to the Sir George Cayley Institute September 1988.
85. C.M. Hempsell, "An Expanded Space Infrastructure", JBIS, Vol. 42, No. 11, November 1986.
86. C.M. Hempsell, "Rationale for a Western World Infrastructure", part of the British Aerospace presentation of the Long Term Architecture Study to Space '90 Conference, Hastings, England, September 1990.
87. P.J. Conchie, "The Space Exploration Initiative - Why Are We Doing It", presented at the Space Summit: An International Conference on Manned Space Exploration, June 3-6, 1990 Huntsville, Ala.
88. C.M. Hempsell, "Space Industrialisation -A New Perspective" Spaceflight, Vol.31, No, 7, July 1989. Although as this paper illustrates it was not really that new.
89. C.M. Hempsell, "Long Term Growth Targets for the Space Infrastructure", IAA-92-0220 delivered at 43rd IAF Congress Washington 1992. Some updating of the work as it stood at the close of the HOTOL project work was included in this paper.
90. A briefing meeting with the BNSC held on 2nd November 1993.
91. The BIS symposium on "Space Industrialisation as a Response to Global Threats" 23rd June 1994 (where this paper was first presented).
92. C.M. Hempsell, "Matching Space Programme Objectives To Society's Needs", IAA.8.1-93-765 presented at the 44th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation Oct 1993, Graz Austria. Later Published in Acta Astronautica, Vol.35, No.9, 1995.
93. C.M. Hempsell, "A Comparison of Modelling Techniques for Long Term Infrastructure Planning", IAA-94-IAA.8.1.705, presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1994, Jerusalem, Israel.
94. D.R .Criswell, "Net Growth in the Two-Planet Economy", IAA-94-IA A.8.1.704 presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, October 1994, Jerusalem, Israel.
95. Marco C. Bernasconi, "Humanity Facing The Future", IAA-94-IAA.8.1.708, presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1994, Jerusalem, Israel.
96. Marco C. Bernasconi and Cristina Bernasconi, "Why Implementing the Space Option is Necessary for Society", IAA-97-IAA.8.1.02, presented at the 48th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1997, Turin, Italy.
97. Francis Thellier and Patrick Eymar, "The Moon/Mars Adventure: Which Role and Which Impacts for Europe", IAF-90-411, presented at the 41st Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1990, Dresden, Germany.
98. K. Kuriki, "Logical Steps to the Moon Mars and Beyond", IAA.3.1-93-686, Presented at the 44th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1993, Graz, Austria.
99. Michael Maylam, "The Funding of Commercial Space Projects", IAA-94-IAA. 1.2.857, Presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1994, Jerusalem, Israel.
100. R.C. Parkinson, "Review of Rationales for Space Activity", IAA-94-IAA.8.1.706, Presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1994, Jerusalem, Israel.
101. A. Hansson, "Astronautics in an Integrating World", IAA-97-IAA.8.1.105, presented at the 48th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1997, Turin, Italy.
102. Michael Bohme, "Saving Earth and Exploring Space", IAA-95-IAA.8.2.07, presented at 46th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, October 1995, Oslo, Norway.
103. Arthur Woods and Marco Bernasconi, "Spaceflight of the Cosmic Dancer Sculpture", IAA.8.2-93-773, presented to 44th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, October 1993, Graz Austria.
104. Arthur R. Woods and Marco C. Bernasconi, ": the 1st Art Exhibition in Earth Orbit", IAF-94-P.3.320, presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1994, Jerusalem, Israel.
105. Arthur R Woods, "The Role of Art in Communicating the Importance of Space Activities", IAA-94-IAA.8.2.712, presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, 1994, Jerusalem, Israel.
106. R.C. Parkinson, "Should Robots Explore the Universe?", IAA-95-IAA.8.2.08, presented at 46th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation October, 1995, Oslo, Norway.
107. Mark Hempsell, "No.1 Hit Targets the Moon", Spaceflight, Vol.34, No. 12, December 1992.
108. George Henry Elias, Breakout into Space, William Morrow, 1990, ISBN 0 688 07703 X.
109. A I Gore, Earth in the Balance, Earthscan, 1992, ISBN 1-85383-137-9.
110. SPS RIO 92 "Space Power Systems and Environment in the 21 st Century" held at the Earth Summit, 4th June 1992; Included 11 papers - all on space solar power generation.
111. A report of Special Committee on Long Term Vision of Japan's Space Activities Commission, "Toward Creation of Space Age in the New Century", July 1994.
112. Antony Martin, "Space Industrialisation as a Response to Global Threats - An Overview", unpublished paper presented at the BIS symposium on "Space Industrialisation as a Response to Global Threats", 23rd June 1994. The discussion on "barriers" was included by this author in reference 93.
113. Alan Marshall, "Ethics and the Extraterrestrial Environment", Journal of Applied Philosophy, Vol.10, No.2, 1993.
114. Alan Marshall, "Development and Imperialism in Space", Space Policy, Vol.11, (p. 41), February 1995.
115. C.S. Lewis, Voyage to Venus or Perelandra, John Lane, 1943.
116. An all C.S. Lewis science fiction trilogy which also included Out of the Silent Planet and That Hideous Strength which were based on the premise that it would be immoral for man to leave the Earth.
117. That C.S. Lewis was against spaceflight on ethical grounds was highlighted in a debate between Arthur C. Clarke and C.S. Lewis on human expansion into space which was initiated by C.S. Lewis' remarks in the novel Voyage to Venus, and is reported in the article "Memoirs of an Armchair Astronaut Retired" which is included in Arthur C. Clarke, Voices From the Sky, Victor Gollancz, 1966.
118. A letter to A. Blair, dated 12 September 1997, was signed by 16 British astronautical professionals involved with the space infrastructure.