Predicting and monitoring casualty numbers in Great Britain

Journal of Transportation and Statistics

Volumn 7, Issue 1, 2004, Pages 61-68

  Raeside, Robert ^a  

^a EDINBURGH NAPIER UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Casualty and fatality prediction; National road safety trends; Statistical forecasting

Indexed keywords

EID: 26044479920     PISSN: 10948848     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Review

References (23)

1. Balkin, S. and J.K. Ord. 2001. Assessing the Impact of Speed-Limit Increases on Fatal Interstate Crashes (with Discussion). Journal of Transportation and Statistics 4(1):1-26.
2. Brannas, K. 1995. Prediction and Control for a Time-Series Count Data Model. International Journal of Forecasting 11:263-270.
3. Broughton, J. 1991. Forecasting Road Accident Casualties in Great Britain. Accident Analysis and Prevention 23(5):353-362.
4. Brude, U. 1995. What Is Happening to the Number of Fatalities in Road Accidents? A Continuous Monitoring of Development up to the Year 2000. Accident Analysis and Prevention 27(3):405-410.
5. Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR). 2002. Road Accidents Great Britain 2002: The Casualty Report. Norwich, UK: Department of Transport, The Stationery Office.
6. DiGuiseppi, C., I. Roberts, and L. Li. 1997. Influence of Changing Travel Patterns on Child Death Rates from Injury: Trend Analysis. British Medical Journal 314(7082):710-717.
7. European Commission. 2003. Halving the Number of Road Accident Victims in the EU by 2010: A Shared Responsibility. Available at http://eurpoa.eu.nt/comm/ dgs/energy_transport/index_fr.html, as of May 2004.
8. Guria, J. and K. Mara. 2001. Predicting Performance of Annual Safety Outcomes. Accident Analysis and Prevention 33(3):387-392.
9. Haight, F.A. (ed). 1991. Theoretical Models for Traffic Safety. Special Issue-Accident Analysis and Prevention 23(1):1-5.
10. Harvey, A.C. 1989. Forecasting Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
11. Harvey, A.C. and J. Durbin. 1986. The Effects of Seat Belt Legislation on British Road Casualties: A Case Study in Structural Time Series Modelling (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 149:187-227.
12. Lassarre, S. 2001. Analysis of Progress in Road Safety in Ten European Countries. Accident Analysis and Prevention 33(6):743-751.
13. Maher, M. and I. Summersgill. 1995. A Comprehensive Methodology for the Fitting of Predictive Accident Models. Accident Analysis and Prevention 28(3):281-296.
14. Nilsson, G. 1997. Methods and Necessity of Exposure Data in Relation to Accident and Injury Statistics: Future Development of IRTAD, IRTAD special report by the Swedish Road and Transport Research Institute. Available at http://www.bast.de/htdocs/fachthemen/irtad/english/abstschweden.html, as of September 2004.
15. Oppe, S. 1989. Macroscopic Models for Traffic and Traffic Safety. Accident Analysis and Prevention 21(3):225-232.
16. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2003. International Road Traffic Accident Database (IRTAD). Available at http://www.bast.de/htdocs/fachthemen/irtad/index.htm, as of May 2004.
17. Page, Y. 2001. A Statistical Model To Compare Road Mortality in OECD Countries. Accident Analysis and Prevention 33(3):371-385.
18. Petch, R.O. and R.R. Henson. 2000. Child Road Safety in the Urban Environment. Journal of Transport Geography 8:197-211.
19. Raeside, R. and D. White. 2004. Predicting Casualty Numbers in Great Britain, paper No. 04-3684. Proceedings of the 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, January 11-15, 2004. Washington, DC.
20. Scottish Executive. 2002. Road Accidents Scotland. Edinburgh, Scotland.
21. Smeed, J.R. 1949. Some Statistical Aspects of Road Safety Research. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 1:1-34.
22. Stone, M. and J. Broughton. 2003. Getting Off Your Bike: Cycling Accidents in Great Britain in 1990-1999. Accident Analysis and Prevention 35(4):549-556.
23. Zeger, S.L. 1988. A Regression Model for Time Series of Counts. Biometrika 75:621-629.