The creation of a Westphalian rye market 1820-1870: Leading and following regions, a co-integration analysis

Jahrbuch fur Wirtschaftsgeschichte

Volumn , Issue 2, 2002, Pages 85-111

  Kopsidis, Michael ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; ARTICLE; CATERING SERVICE; CEREAL; ECONOMICS; FOOD; GERMANY; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HISTORY; LAW; LEGAL ASPECT; RYE; STATISTICS;

AGRICULTURE; CEREALS; FOOD; FOOD SUPPLY; GERMANY; HISTORY, 19TH CENTURY; LEGISLATION, FOOD; NUTRITION POLICY; SECALE CEREALE;

EID: 25144510856     PISSN: 00752800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1524/jbwg.2002.43.2.85     Document Type: Review

References (66)

1. A. Kussmaul, Agrarian Change in Seventeenth-century England: The Economic Historian as Palaeontologist, in: Journal of Economic History 45, 1985/1, pp. 1-30;
2. E.A. Wrigley, People, Cities and Wealth. The Transformation of Traditional Society, Oxford 1987, pp. 157-193;
3. G. Grantham, Agricultural Supply During the Industrial Revolution: French Evidence and European Implications, in: Journal of Economic History 49, 1989/1, pp. 43-72;
4. M. Overton, Agricultural Revolution in England. The transformation of the agrarian economy 1500-1850, Cambridge 1996, pp. 133-147;
5. J.E. Stiglitz, Markets, Market Failure, and Development, in: C.K. Eicher/J.M. Staatz, (eds), International Agricultural Development Baltimore 3 1998, pp. 103-112;
6. P.C. Timmer, The Agricultural Transformation, in: Eicher/Staatz, pp. 113-135;
7. Y. Hayami, Community, Market, State, in: Eicher/Staatz, pp. 90-102
8. and Y. Hayami, The Peasant in Economic Modernization, in: Eicher/Staatz, pp. 300-315.
9. M. Kopsidis, Der westfälische Agrarmarkt im Integrationsprozeß 1780-1880. Phasen und Einflußfaktoren der Marktentwicklung in historischen Transformationsprozessen, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte 1998, 2, pp. 169-198
10. and M. Kopsidis, Peasants and Markets: Market Integration and Agricultural Development in Westphalia 1780-1880, Proceedings of the First Conference on German Cliometrics, University of Toronto, September 23-26, 1999.
11. This result is supported by H.-H. Bass, Hungerkrisen in Preußen während der ersten Hälfte des 19. Jahrhunderts (= Studien zur Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte, Bd. 8), St. Katharinen 1991, pp. 73-78
12. and by R. Fremdling/G. Hohorst, Marktintegration der preußischen Wirtschaft im 19. Jahrhundert - Skizze eines Forschungsansatzes zur Fluktuation der Roggenpreise zwischen 1821 und 1865, in: R. Tilly/R. Fremdling, Industrialisierung und Raum, in Historisch-Sozialwissenschaftliche Forschungen, Bd. 7, Stuttgart 1979, pp. 56-101, who found that Westphalian and Prussian rye markets were highly integrated after 1820. Both studies (and especially the first one) use correlation analyses at a sophisticated level.
13. The first study that examined the relation between price volatility and market integration was conducted by Persson in 1993 for nineteenth-century grain markets (K.G. Persson, Grain price stabilization in Europe 1500-1900: theory and evidence. Paper presented at the European Economics Workshop on Market Integration, Lerici 1993).
14. He found a significant relationship between high price volatility and a lack of market integration (in a broader context see K.G. Persson, Grain Markets in Europe, 1500-1900, Cambridge 1999).
15. According to Roehner, "The question, however, can hardly be considered as being settled", due to the lack of empirical studies in this area (B.M. Roehner, Theory of Markets, Trade and Space-time Patterns of Price Fluctuations, Berlin 1995, p. 34). This still holds true today.
16. B. Harris, There is Method in my Madness: Or is it vice versa? Measuring Agricultural Market Performance, in: Food Research Institute Studies XVII, 1979/2, pp. 197-218;
17. J. Wyeth, The Measurement of Market Integration and Applications to Food Security Policies, Institute of Development Studies, Discussion Paper 314, 1992.
18. F. Goletti/S. Babu, Market Liberalization and Integration of Maize Markets in Malawi, in: Agricultural Economics 12, 1994, pp. 311-324, p. 315.
19. Own calculations; A. Meitzen, Der Boden und die landwirthschaftlichen Verhältnisse des preußischen Staates nach dem Gebietsumfang vor 1866, 4 vol., Berlin 1864, Vol. 1, pp. 64, 313.
20. th century), (2002, forthcoming).
21. Around 1830 approximately 253,000 t of grain (wheat, rye, barley and oats) were produced annually in the two Westphalian districts of Münster and Arnsberg (Westphalia consisted of three administrative districts, Münster, Arnsberg and Minden). Of this, 48% fell to rye and only 7% to wheat. Around 1880, rye still represented 44% of grain production, while the share of wheat had increased to 18%. Non-garden production of potatoes was negligible. Only 1.2% of arable land was cultivated with potatoes around 1830, compared to 8.6% around 1880 (own calculations, M. Kopsidis, Die regionale Entwicklung der Produktion und der Wertschöpfung im westfälischen Agrarsektor zwischen 1822/35 und 1878/82. Ein komparativ-statischer Vergleich, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte 1995/I, pp. 131-169, p. 149).
22. Except in the infertile southern Westphalian highlands, the cultivation of potatoes on arable land was unknown around 1830. Additionally, further calculations by the author reveal that even if all garden land had been used to plant potatoes, the necessary yields to feed the population would have had to be on a level exceeding contemporaneous Westphalian yields by several times (M. Kopsidis, Market Integration in Northwest Germany, 1820-1870, Unpublished paper presented at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and the California Institute of Technology (CALTEC), Los Angeles 2000). This does not mean that potatoes were not consumed, but Westphalia around 1830 was definitely no "second Ireland".
23. W. Müller-Wille, Westfalen. Landschaftliche Ordnung und Bindung eines Landes, Münster 1981 (first 1952), p. 249;
24. M. Kopsidis, Marktintegration und Entwicklung der westfälischen Landwirtschaft 1780-1880. Marktorientierte ökonomische Entwicklung eines bäuerlich strukturierten Agrarsektors (= Münsteraner Beiträge zur Cliometrie und quantitativen Wirtschaftsgeschichte, Bd. 3), Münster 1996, p. 201;
25. M. Kopsidis, Agrarlandschaften und Markt: Thünensche Ringe in Westfalen 1780-1880, in: K. Ditt/R. Gudermann/N. Rüße (eds.), Agrarmodernisierung und ökologische Folgen. Westfalen vom 18. bis zum 20. Jahrhundert, Paderborn 2001, pp. 371-392.
26. F. Keinemann, Westfalen im Zeitalter der Restauration und der Julirevolution 1815-1833, Münster 1987, p. 11. For enabling and organising the collection of the price data I am greatly indebted to Georg Fertig from the Department of History at the University of Muenster/Germany. The survey was carried out as part of the DFG-project "Demographischer Wandel, Marktentwicklung und Regionenbildung in Westfalen, 1750-1850" (Demographic Change, Market Development and Formation of Regions in Westphalia, 1750-1850). My special thanks for collecting the data go
27. Andreas Berger, Stefan Evers and Markus Küpker. The Westphalian rye prices are filed in the "Staatsarchiv Muenster" (STAM, OP 350, p. 1, STAM, OP 351, p.2 and STAM, OP 352, p. 3).
28. W. Mager, Protoindustrialisierung und agrarisch-heimgewerbliche Verflechtung in Ravensberg während der Frühen Neuzeit Studien zu einer Gesellschaftsformation im Übergang, in: Geschichte und Gesellschaft 18, 1982, pp. 435-474;
29. J. Schlumbohm, Agrarische Besitzklassen und gewerbliche Produktionsverhältnisse: Großbauern, Kleinbesitzer und Landlose als Leinenproduzenten im Umland von Osnabrück und Bielefeld während des frühen 19. Jahrhunderts, in: Mentalitäten und Lebensverhältnisse. Rudolf Vierhaus zum 60. Geburtstag, Göttingen 1982, pp. 315-334;
30. W. Köllmann, Die Bevölkerung des Regierungsbezirks Münster im 19. Jahrhundert, in: Westfälische Forschungen 40, 1999, pp. 195-222, pp. 212-213;
31. S.C. Ogilvie, Proto-industrialization in Germany, in: S.C. Ogilvie/M. Cerman (eds.), European Proto-industrialization, Cambridge 1996, pp. 118-136, p. 134.
32. Concerning the classification of the regions of the administrative districts Muenster and Arnsberg see also Kopsidis, Marktintegration, p. 95, and Kopsidis, Peasants and Markets.
33. Until the 1840s the districts of Dortmund and Bochum were able to produce grain surpluses (W. Heinrichs, Die Entwicklung der landwirtschaftlichen Betriebsverhältnisse in dem westlichen Teil des Hellweggebietes unter dem Einfluß der Großindustrie, Diss. Würzburg 1938, p. 47) and export them to adjacent deficit regions.
34. Kopsidis, Die regionale Entwicklung der Produktion and Kopsidis, Peasants and Markets; V. Lünnemann, Bevölkerung, Landwirtschaft und Umwelt in den Regionen Hellweg und östliches Sandmünsterland im 19. Jahrhundert, in: Ditt/Gudermann/Rüße, pp. 427-449.
35. Since the middle ages, the agricultural development in the Ruhr had depended on the long-term cycles of the metal processing industry in the adjacent highlands called '(Nieder)sauerland' (M. Bosch, Die wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen der Befreiung des Bauernstandes im Herzogtum Kleve und in der Grafschaft Mark im Rahmen der Agrargeschichte Westdeutschlands, Berlin 1920, pp. 134, 159). Strong market relations between the proto-industrial deficit areas in the southern Westphalian highlands and the adjacent granaries are also indicated by the correlation analyses of Bass, p. 75 and Kopsidis, Der westfälische Agrarmarkt.
36. G. Fertig, Die Struktur des Raumes im 18. und 19. Jahrhundert: Bevölkerung und demographischer Wandel, in: K.-P. Ellerbrock/T. Bessler-Warbs (eds.), Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft im südöstlichen Westfalen: die IHK zu Arnsberg und ihr Wirtschaftsraum im 19. und 20. Jahrhundert, Dortmund 2001, pp. 48-82.
37. S. Brakensiek, Agrarreform und ländliche Gesellschaft Die Privatisierung der Marken in Nordwestdeutschland 1750-1850, Paderborn 1991, pp. 320-328.
38. S. Johansen, Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors, in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 1988, pp. 231-254. For helpful comments on methodological issues I am greatly indebted to my colleague Guenter Peter.
39. The lack of a constant long-term seasonal pattern of grain prices was also observed and discussed by contemporary statisticians (E. Engel, Die Getreidepreise, die Ernteerträge und der Getreidehandel im preußischen Staat, in: Zeitschrift des Königlich Preussischen Statistischen Bureaus 1, Berlin 1861, pp. 249-289, p. 266).
40. E.g. H. Luetkepohl, Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Berlin 1991, p. 125;
41. C.A. Sims, Macroeconomics and reality, in: Econometrica 48, 1980, pp. 1-48, p. 17.
42. H.-E. Reimers, Analyse kointegrierter Variablen mittels vektorautoregressiver Modelle, Heidelberg 1991, p. 171.
43. E.g. R. Harris, Using Co-integration Analysis in Econometric Modelling, London 1995, p. 97.
44. H. Hansen/S. Johansen, Recursive Estimation in Co-integrated VAR-Models, University of Copenhagen, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, reprint 1993.
45. D.A. Dickey/W.A. Fuller, Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root in: Econometrica 49, 1981, pp. 1057-72;
46. P.C.B. Phillips/P. Perron, Testing for a unit root in time series regression, in: Biometrica 75, 1988, pp. 335-46. All the prices are nominal prices. This is justified because inflation was negligibly low in Prussia during the time period under consideration.
47. E. Monke/T. Petzel, Market Integration: An Application to International Trade in Cotton, in: American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66, 1984, pp. 481-487, p. 482.
48. S. Cramon-Taubadel/J.P. Loy/E. Musfeldt, Empirische Methoden zur Analyse der Marktintegration am Beispiel des EU-Schweinemarktes, in: W. Grosskopf/C.H. Hanf/F. Heidhues/J. Zeddies (eds). Die Landwirtschaft nach der EU-Agrarreform (= Schriften der GeWiSoLa e.V., Bd. 31), pp. 119-137, p. 120.
49. C Alexander/J. Wyeth, Co-Integration and Market Integration: An Application to the Indonesian Rice Market, in: Journal of Development Studies 30, 1994, pp. 302-324, p. 310.
50. Similar definitions of market integration in empirical co-integration studies are developed in B.K. Goodwin/T.C. Schroeder, Co-integration Tests and Spatial Price Linkages in Regional Cattle Markets, in: American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73, 1991, pp. 452-464, p. 453, and Goletti/Babu, p. 315.
51. J.-P. Loy/P. Wehrheim, Spatial Food Market Integration in Russia, in: The Russian Food Economy in Transition, No.6, Kiel 1996, p. 11.
52. On the statistical concept of weak and strong exogeneity, see R.F. Engle/D.F. Hendry/J.-F., Richard, Exogeneity, in: Econometrica 51, 1983/2, pp. 277-304.
53. J.-P. Loy, Möglichkeiten zur Beurteilung von Markteffizienz. Theorie, Methodik und eine erste Evaluierung für polnische Agrarmärkte in der Transformationsphase, Kiel 1995, p. 112.
54. In 1828 the districts of Tecklenburg, Ahaus, Meschede and Bueren hardly had any paved roads (F. Sälter, Entwicklung und Bedeutung des Chaussee- und Wegebaus in der Provinz Westfalen unter ihrem ersten Oberpräsidenten Ludwig Freiherr von Vincke, 1815-1844, Diss. Marburg 1917).
55. The limited demand on local markets and the lack of supra-regional market outlets explain why the districts in the northern and eastern part of Muensterland - represented by Tecklenburg and Ahaus - only experienced a far below average increase in their plant production by comparison with Westphalia as a whole (Kopsidis, Agrarlandschaften, p. 359).
56. Fertig, Die Struktur des Raumes.
57. The causes and the course of the famine of 1830/1831 in eastern Westphalia are described in detail by Bass, p. 78. The demographic development from 1750-1870 reflects the critical food situation in eastern Westphalian proto-industrialised areas. There, population growth reacted much more strongly negatively to increasing rye prices than the Westphalian average (G. Fertig, Marriage and economy in rural Westphalia, 1750-1870: A time series and cross sectional analysis, in: I. Devos/L. Kennedy (eds.), Marriage and Rural Economy: Western Europe Since 1400, CORN Publication Series 3, Turnhout 1999, pp. 243-271, p. 252).
58. Kopsidis, Die regionale Entwicklung.
59. th century, Ithaca 1984. In addition it should be mentioned here that in empirical studies about present commodity markets too the increase of risk is positively related to the distance (Goodwin/Schroeder, p. 456).
60. Kopsidis, Der westfälische Agrarmarkt.
61. for the county of Mark, see R. Gehrmann, Bevölkerungsgeschichte Norddeutschlands zwischen Aufklärung und Vormärz, Berlin 2000, p. 198
62. and F. Lampp, Die Getreidehandelspolitik in der ehemaligen Grafschaft Mark während des 18. Jahrhunderts, Münster 1912, p. 165.
63. th century isolated agrarian regions attained a higher nutrition standard than integrating rural areas. Analysing the effects of market integration after railway construction on regional milk consumption by comparing isolated and integrated areas, J. Baten/G. Fertig, After the Railway Came: Was the Health of Your Children an Inferior Good? A Hierarchical Mixed Models Analysis of German Heights, Paper presented on the European Social Science History Conference, Amsterdam 2000 showed that in the southern Westphalian administrative district of Arnsberg the commercialisation of dairy production led to a deterioration in the nutrition (protein intake) of children of the lower agricultural classes in integrated compared to isolated regions. The milk from agrarian regions endowed with a railway went to high-income urban consumers.
64. Similar results are available for other German and European regions (J. Komlos, Stature, Nutrition, and Economic Development in the Eighteenth-Century Habsburg Monarchy: The 'Austrian' Model of the Industrial Revolution, Princeton 1989;
65. th century worsened the food situation in integrating rural areas compared to more isolated rural areas.
66. Kopsidis, Der westfälische Agrarmarkt, p. 188.