Australia's uncertain demographic future

Demographic Research

Volumn 11, Issue , 2004, Pages 195-234

  Wilson, Tom ^a   Bell, Martin ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 24944529735     PISSN: 14359871     EISSN: 14359871     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.11.8     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Alho, J (2002) The population of Finland in 2050 and beyond. Discussion Paper no. 826, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, Helsinki.
2. Atkins, D (2004) "Go forth and multiply" The Courier-Mail, 12 May
3. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2003a) Population projections Australia, 2002 to 2101. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
4. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2003b) Net overseas migration: adjusting for actual duration of stay or absence. Demography Working Paper 2003/5. http://www.abs.gov.au/
5. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) (2000) Australia's Health 2000. Canberra: AIHW.
6. Australian Labor Party (2004) "Labor's Baby Care Payment". Accessed 2 June 2004 from http://www.alp.org.au/dload/federal/media/baby_care_payment.pdf
7. Booth, H (2004) "On the importance of being uncertain: forecasting population futures for Australia." People and Place 12.2: 1-12.
8. Booth, H, Maindonald, J and Smith, L (2002) Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline. Population Studies 56: 325-336.
9. Cohen, JE (1986) "Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches." Demography 23: 105-126.
10. De Beer, J and Alders, M (1999) "Probabilistic population and household forecasts for the Netherlands." Paper prepared for the joint ECE-EUROSTAT work session on demographic projections, Perugia, Italy, 3-7 May 1999.
11. Hugo, G (1999) "A new paradigm of international migration in Australia." New Zealand Population Review 25: 1-39.
12. Keilman, N (2001) "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95." Population Studies 55: 149-164.
13. Keilman, N, Pham, DQ and Hetland, A (2001) Norway's Uncertain Demographic Future. Social and Economic Studies no. 105. Oslo: Statistics Norway.
14. Khoo, S and McDonald, P (2000) Category jumping: trends, demographic impact and measurement issues. Report to the Department of Immigration, Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
15. Lee, R (1999) "Probabilistic approaches to population forecasting." In: Lutz W, Vaupel J W and Ahlburg D A (eds) Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Supplement to population and Development Review volume 24. New York: Population Council: 156-190.
16. Lee, R and Tuljapurkar, S (1994) "Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: beyond high, medium and low." Journal of the American Statistical Association 89: 1175-1189.
17. Lutz, W and Goldstein, JR (2004) "Introduction: how to deal with uncertainty in population forecasting?" International Statistical Review 72: 1-4.
18. Lutz, W and Scherbov, S (1998) "An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections: the example of Austria." European Journal of Population 14: 1-17.
19. Lutz, W and Scherbov, S (2003) Future demographic change in Europe: the contribution of migration. Interim Report IR-03-066, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
20. Lutz, W, Scherbov, S and Sanderson, W (2003a) "The end of population growth in Asia." Journal of Population Research 20.1: 125-141.
21. Lutz, W, O'Neill, BC and Scherbov, S (2003b) "Europe's population at a turning point." Science 299: 1991-1992.
22. Lutz, W, Sanderson, W and Scherbov, S (2001) "The end of world population growth." Nature 412: 543-545.
23. Lutz, W, Sanderson, WC and Scherbov, S (1999a) Expert-based probabilistic population projections. In: Lutz, W, Vaupel, JW and Ahlburg, DA (eds) Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Supplement to population and Development Review volume 24. New York: Population Council: 139-155.
24. Lutz, W, Vaupel, JW and Ahlburg, DA (eds) (1999b) Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Supplement to population and Development Review volume 24. New York: Population Council.
25. Lutz, W, Sanderson, WC and Scherbov, S (eds) (2004) The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century. London: Earthscan.
26. McDonald, P (2003) Australia's future population: population policy in a low-fertility society. In: Khoo S and McDonald P (eds) The Transformation of Australia's Population 1970-2030. Sydney: University of New South Press: 266-279.
27. McDonald, P and Kippen, R (1999) Population futures for Australia: the policy alternatives. Research Paper 5 1999-2000, Parliamentary Library, Parliament of Australia. Accessed 11 December 2000 from http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/1999-2000/2000p05.htm
28. McDonald, P and Kippen, R (2002) "Projecting future migration levels: should rates or numbers be used?" People and Place 10: 82-83.
29. McDonald, P, Khoo, S and Kippen, R (2003) "Alternative net migration estimates for Australia: exploding the myth of a rapid increase in numbers." People and Place 11.3: 23-36.
30. National Research Council (2000) Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington DC: National Academy Press.
31. Press, WH, Teukolsky, SA, Vetterling, WT and Flannery, BP (2001) Numerical Recipes in Fortran 77: The Art of Scientific Computing (Second edition). New York: Cambridge University Press.
32. Rees, P. (1989) Old model faces new challenges: a review of the state of the art in multistate population modelling. Working paper 531, School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
33. Rogers, A (1990) "Requiem for the net migrant." Geographical Analysis 22: 283-300.
34. Rogers, A, Raquillet, R and Castro, LJ (1978) "Model migration schedules and their applications." Environment and Planning A 10: 475-502.
35. Smith, L (2003) The Australian Demographic Databank. Presentation to the Population Modelling and Forecasting workshop, The Australian National University, 13 February 2003. http://acpr.edu.au/Publications/Data%20Bank%20Presentation.pdf
36. Thatcher, AR, Kannisto, V and Vaupel, JW (1998) The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120. Odense: Odense University Press.
37. Thatcher, R, Kannisto, V and Andreev, K (2002) "The survivor ratio method for estimating numbers at high ages." Demographic Research 6-1. http://www.demographic-research.org
38. United Nations (2003) World Population Prospects: the 2002 Revision. New York: United Nations.
39. Withers, G (2002) "Methods for projecting future migration levels: an assessment." People and Place 10.1: 84-86.