Generating pre-test probabilities: A neglected area in clinical decision making

Medical Journal of Australia

Volumn 180, Issue 9, 2004, Pages 449-454

  Attia, John R ^a   Nair, Balakrishnan R ^b   Sibbritt, David W ^a   Ewald, Ben D ^a   Paget, Neil S ^c   Wellard, Rod F ^d   Patterson, Lesley ^e   Heller, Richard F ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE   (Australia)

^b JOHN HUNTER HOSPITAL   (Australia)

^c ROYAL AUSTRALASIAN COLLEGE OF PHYSICIANS   (Australia)

^d ROYAL AUSTRALIAN COLLEGE OF GENERAL PRACTITIONERS   (Australia)

^e UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; AUSTRALIA; CLINICAL PRACTICE; CONTROLLED STUDY; DEEP VEIN THROMBOSIS; DEMOGRAPHY; DIAGNOSTIC ACCURACY; GENERAL PRACTITIONER; HUMAN; ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE; MEDICAL DECISION MAKING; MEDICAL EDUCATION; PHYSICIAN; POSTAL MAIL; PROBABILITY; QUESTIONNAIRE; RANDOMIZATION; RISK ASSESSMENT; STROKE; UNITED KINGDOM; VALIDATION PROCESS;

EID: 2442586723     PISSN: 0025729X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2004.tb06020.x     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Jaeschke R, Guyatt G, Lijmer J. Diagnostic tests. In: Guyatt G, Rennie D, editors. Users' guides to the medical literature. A manual for evidence-based practice. Chicago: AMA Press, 2002.
2. Letelier LM, Weaver B, Montori V. Diagnosis. Examples of likelihood ratios. In: Guyatt G, Rennie D, editors, Users' guides to the medical literature. A manual for evidence-based practice. Chicago: AMA Press, 2002.
3. Richardson WS. Five uneasy pieces about pre-test probability. J Gen Intern Med 2002; 17: 891-892.
4. Sackett DL, Haynes RB, Guyatt GH, Tugwell P, editors. Clinical epidemiology. A basic science for clinical medicine. 2nd edition. Boston: Little Brown, 1991: 100.
5. Bobbio M, Fubini A, Detrano R, et al Diagnostic accuracy of predicting coronary artery disease related to patients' characteristics. J Clin Epidemiol 1994; 47: 389-395.
6. Bobbio M, Detrano R, Shandling AH, et at. Clinical assessment of the probability of coronary artery disease: judgmental bias from personal knowledge. Med Decis Making 1992; 12: 197-203.
7. Lyman GH, Balducci L. The effect of changing disease risk on clinical reasoning. J Gen Intern Med 1994; 9: 488-495.
8. Dolan JG, Bordley DR, Mushlin AI. An evaluation of clinicians subjective prior probability estimates. Med Decis Making 1986; 6: 216-223.
9. Diamond GA, Forrester JS. Analysis of probability as an aid in the clinical diagnosis of coronary artery disease. N Engl J Med 1979; 300: 1350-1358.
10. Wells PA, Anderson DR, Bormanis J, et al. Value of assessment of pretest probability of deep-vein thrombosis in clinical management. Lancet 1997; 350:1795-1798.
11. Wolf PA, D'Agostino RB, Belanger AJ, Kannel WB. Probability of stroke: a risk profile from the Framingham Study. Stroke 1991; 22: 312-318
12. JMP [statistical software], version 4, Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc, 2001.
13. Lipinski M, Do D, Froelicher V, et al. Comparison of exercise test scores and physician estimation in determining disease probability. Arch Intern Med 2001; 161: 2239-2244.
14. McManus RJ, Mant J, Meulendijks CFM, et al. Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study. BMJ 2002; 324: 459-464.
15. Noguchi Y, Matsui K, Imura H, et al. Quantitative evaluation of the diagnostic thinking process in medical students. J Gen Intern Med 2002; 17: 848-853.
16. Steurer J, Fischer JE, Bachmann LM, et al. Communicating accuracy of tests to general practitioners: a controlled study. BMJ 2002; 324: 824-826.
17. Stevens J. Applied multivariate statistics for the social sciences. 3rd edition. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Publishers, 1998: 72.
18. Shim JH, Haynes RB, Johnson ME. Effect of problem-based, self-directed, undergraduate education on life-long learning. Can Med Assoc J 1993; 148: 969-976.
19. Norman GR, Shannon SI. Effectiveness of instruction in critical appraisal skills: a critical appraisal. Can Med Assoc J 1998; 158: 177-181.
20. McGettigan P, Sly K, O'Connell D, et al. The effects of information framing on the practices of physicians. J Gen Intern Med 1999; 14: 633-642.
21. Brassey J, Elsyn G, Price C, Kinnersley P. Just in time information for clinicians: a questionnaire evaluation of the ATTRACT Project. BMJ 2001; 322: 529-530.
22. Stiell IG, McKnight RD, Greenberg GH, et al. Implementation of the Ottawa ankle rules. JAMA 1994; 271: 827-832,
23. Stiell IG, Wells GA, Vandemheem KL, at al. The Canadian C-spine rule for radiography in alert and stable trauma patients. JAMA 2001; 286: 1841-1848.