The dragon and the tigers China and asian regionalism

World Policy Journal

Volumn 22, Issue 2, 2005, Pages 23-36

  De Santis, Hugh ^a,b,c  

^a Globe Strat Inc

^b Department of State ^*

^c National War College   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 23944479795     PISSN: 07402775     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1215/07402775-2005-3002     Document Type: Review

References (49)

1. Sheng Lijun, "China-ASEAN Free Trade Area: Origins, Developments, and Strategic Motivations," ISEAS Working Paper: International Political and Security Series, no. 1, (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2003, pp. 1-2.
2. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are from the World Bank (www.worldbank.org)
3. and the CIA (www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook).
4. Robert C. Fauver, "Prospects and Implications of Northeast Asia Regional Economic Integration," paper presented at State Department Conference on Northeast Asian Regional Economic Integration, Meridian International Center, Washington, DC, June 21, 2002;
5. see also Paul Dibb, David D. Hale, and Peter Prince, "Asia's Insecurity," Survival, vol. 41 (autumn 1999), pp. 6-7;
6. and R. William Liddle, "Indonesia in 2000: A Shaky Start for Democracy." Asian Survey, vol. 41 (January/February 2001), p. 218.
7. Shalendra D. Sharma, "Stability amidst Turmoil: China and the Asian Financial Crisis," Harvard Asia Quarterly, vol. 4 (winter 2000), p. 1.
8. The original five members of ASEAN are Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Brunei became a member in 1984.
9. A currency swap is an agreement to exchange currencies on a short-term basis with the understanding that the exchange will be reversed at a specific time and price. Swaps are treated as foreign exchange reserves.
10. "China Outlines Need for Free Trade Zone," Agence France Presse story carried in the New York Times, November 26, 2000;
11. see also Hadi Soesastro, "Whither ASEAN Plus Three?" paper presented at Trade Policy Forum, Bangkok, June 12-13, 2001.
12. Lyall Breckon, "China Caps a Year of Gains," Comparative Connections, Pacific Forum CSIS, vol. 4 (January 2003), pp. 1-7.
13. Lyall Breckon, "A New Strategic Partnership Is Declared," Comparative Connections, vol. 5 (January 2004), pp. 1-7.
14. Ronald L. Montaperto, "Assurance and Reassurance," Comparative Connections, vol. 7 (March 2005), pp. 1-6.
15. Jane Perlez, "Across Asia, Beijing's Star Is in Ascendance," New York Times, August 28, 2004;
16. Edward Cody, "China's Quiet Rise Casts Wide Shadow," Washington Post, February 26, 2005.
17. "Free Trade or One-Way Street?" Bangkok Post, December 2, 2004, p. 1;
18. "FTA with China Will 'Deal a Blow to Manufacturing Sector,'" Jakarta Post, December 2, 2004, p. 1, reprinted by Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), December 2, 2004.
19. Jane Perlez, "Southeast Asia Urged to Form Economic Bloc," New York Times, November 29, 2004;
20. FBIS Media Analysis, www.harvard.edu, December 6, 2004.
21. Lardy made his comments at the American Enterprise Institute-National Defense University "China in Asia" seminar, April 21, 2005; see also Morris Goldstein and Nicholas R. Lardy, "What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?" Policy Briefs, no. PB04-7, Institute for International Economics, November 2004;
22. and "The Dragon and the Eagle: A Survey of the World Economy," Economist, October 2, 2004, p. 8.
23. David Shambaugh, "China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order," International Security, vol. 29 (winter 2004/05), p. 79.
24. Fang Zhou, "China, India Forming Strategic Ties," China Daily, February 18, 2005, www. chinadaily.com;
25. Manjeet Kripalani, Dexter Roberts, and Jason Bush, "India and China: Oil Patch Partners?" Business Week, February 7, 2005, p. 53. India currently imports 70 percent of its oil, a figure that is projected to reach 85 percent by 2020; China presently imports of some 40 percent of its oil, a figure that is also likely to rise.
26. See David L. Rousseau, "American and Japanese Perceptions of the Rise of China," paper presented at the American Political Science Association meeting, August 29-September 1, 2002, Boston; "Japanese Public's Views of China," and "The Japanese Public's Vision of the Future," Office of Research, Department of State, April 30, 1999 and February 7, 2000;
27. see also Asahi Shimbun poll data in Japanese Morning Press Highlights, April 25, 2005, and FBIS Media Analysis.
28. FBIS Media Analysis, www.harvard.edu, December 6, 2004;
29. Marvin C. Ott, "America and the New Dynamics of Asian Security," Current History, April. 2001, pp. 147-53.
30. I b i d.
31. "Asian Banking Officials to Discuss Currencies," Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2002.
32. Goh Sui Noi, "Fresh China Move to Rebuild Ties with Singapore, " Straits Times Interactive (www.straitstimes.com), March 7, 2005;
33. Jane Perlez, "Across Asia Star Rising," New York Times, August 28, 2004;
34. "New Best Friends," Economist, April 2, 2005, p. 38.
35. Shambaugh, "China Engages Asia," p. 66.
36. Ichiro Ozawa was the catalyst for the "normal nation" debate in Japan. See his Blueprint for a New Japan (Tokyo: Kodansha International, 1994).
37. Bill Gertz, "Chinese Military Buildup Assessed as the Threat to U.S.," Washington Times, p. 1.
38. Jim Wolf, "U.S. Overstated China's Military Spending, Study Says," Reuters, May 20, 2005 (www.news.yahoo.com);
39. Keith Crane et al., Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2005);
40. Wendy Frieman, "The Understated Revolution in Chinese Science and Technology: Implications for the PLA in the Twenty-First Century," in China's Military Faces the Future, ed. James R. Lilley and David S. Shambaugh (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharp, 1999), pp. 247-67;
41. Mark Helprin, "Beyond the Rim," Wall Street Journal, December 13, 2004.
42. Paul Godwin, China's Defense Modernization: Aspirations and Capabilities (Alexandria, VA, CNA Corporation: April 2001);
43. st Century (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2001);
44. Larry Rohter, "China Widens Economic Role in Latin America," Washington Post, November 20, 2004;
45. Korby Leggett, "China Flexes Economic Muscle throughout Burgeoning Africa," Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2005.
46. Hugh De Santis, "Mutualism: An American Strategy for the Next Century," World Policy Journal, vol. 15 (winter 1998/99), pp. 41-53.
47. Interviews conducted by author, Singapore, March 15-17, 2000.
48. I presented this idea to at least one receptive LDP parliamentarian during a visit to Tokyo in March 2002.
49. Dennis C. Blair and John T. Hanley, Jr., "From Wheels to Webs: Reconstructing Asia-Pacific Security Arrangements," Washington Quarterly, vol. 24 (winter 2001), pp. 7-17.