Long-term sales forecasting using holt-winters and neural network methods

Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 24, Issue 5, 2005, Pages 353-368

  Kotsialos, Apostolos ^a   Papageorgiou, Markos ^a   Poulimenos, Antonios ^a  

^a TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF CRETE   (Greece)

Author keywords

Feedforward neural networks; Holt winters method; Long term forecasting; Sales forecasting

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; NEURAL NETWORKS; PROBLEM SOLVING; PUBLIC POLICY; SALES; STRATEGIC PLANNING;

HOLT-WINTERS METHOD; HUMAN INTERVENTION; LONG-TERM FORECASTING; SALES FORECASTING;

FORECASTING;

EID: 23844500701     PISSN: 02776693     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/for.943     Document Type: Article

References (13)

1. Bunn DW. 2000. Forecasting loads and prices in competitive power markets. Proceedings of the IEEE 88:163-169.
2. Chakraborty K, Mehrotra K, Mohan CK, Ranka S. 1992. Forecasting the behavior of multivariate time series using neural networks. Neural Networks 5: 961-970.
3. Chatfield C. 1978. The Holt-Winters forecasting procedure. Applied Statistics 27: 264-279.
4. Cottrell M, Girard B, Girard Y, Mangeas M, Muller C. 1995. Neural modeling for time series: a statistical stepwise method for weight elimination. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks 6: 1355-1364.
5. Gardner ESJ, McKenzie E. 1989. Seasonal exponential smoothing with damped trends. Management Science 35: 372-376.
6. Gaynor PE, Kirkpatrick RC. 1994. Introduction to Time-Series Modeling and Forecasting in Business and Economics. McGraw-Hill International: Singapore.
7. Grubb H, Mason A. 2001. Long lead-time forecasting of UK air passengers by Holt-Winters methods with damped trend. International Journal of Forecasting 17: 71-82.
8. Johansson EM, Dowla FU, Goodman DM. 1992. Backpropagation learning for multilayer feed-forward neural networks using the conjugate gradient method. International Journal of Neural Systems 2: 291-301.
9. Lactermacher G, Fuller JD. 1995. Backpropagation in time-series forecasting. Journal of Forecasting 14: 381-393.
10. Makridakis S, Wheelwright SC. 1978. Forecasting: Methods and Applications. Wiley/Hamilton: New York.
11. Makridakis S, Andersen A, Carbone R, Fildes R, Hibon M, Lewandowski R, Newton J, Parzen E, Winkler R. 1982. The accuracy of extrapolation (time-series) methods: results of a forecasting competition. Journal of Forecasting 1: 111-153.
12. Rajopadhye M, Ben Chalia M, Wang PP, Baker T, Eister CV. 1999. Forecasting uncertain hotel room demand. Proceedings of the 1999 American Control Conference, San Diego, CA, 1925-1929.
13. Yao X. 1999. Evolving artificial neural networks. Proceedings of the IEEE 87: 1423-1447.