Terrorist motivations for chemical and biological weapons use: Placing the threat in context

Defense and Security Analysis

Volumn 20, Issue 4, 2004, Pages 313-320

  Cronin, Audrey Kurth ^a  

^a NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

TERRORISM;

EID: 23344436255     PISSN: 14751798     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/1475179042000305778     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Chronology of State Use and Biological and Chemical Weapons Control, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, accessed at http://cns.miis.edu/research/cbw/pastuse.htm.
2. For more information about technical aspects of the threat, see Dana Shea, Terrorism: Background on Chemical, Biological, and Toxin Weapons and Options for Lessening Their Impact, CRS Report RL31669, Washington DC: Congressional Research Service;
3. and, Steve Bowman, Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Terrorist Threat, CRS Report RL31332, Washington DC: CRS.
4. For example, the US State Department lists 348 international terrorist attacks for 2001, whereas the Center for Nonproliferation Studies lists only 25 CBW attacks. Even accounting for differences in how incidents are counted, there is a large magnitude of difference. US Department of State, Patterns of Global Terrorism, Office of the Co-ordinator for Counter-terrorism, May 2002, p. 171;
5. and Adam Dolnik and Jason Pate, 2001 WMD Terrorism Chronology, CNS Reports, Monterey Institute of International Affairs, accessed at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/cbrn2k1.htm.
6. Indeed, some of the most-often cited examples of terrorist use of bio-chemical agents have proven to be overblown or lacking evidence. See Jonathan B. Tucker (ed.), Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000, especially chapters 3, 6, and 7.
7. Amy Sands, "Deconstructing the Chem-Bio Threat: Testimony for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee", 19 March 2002, accessed at: http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/asands.htm, p. 6;
8. Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2001;
9. and Tucker, Toxic Terror, op. cit. This list is illustrative, not comprehensive.
10. Dolnik and Pate, op. cit.
11. In 1980 there were 2 out of 64, and in 1995 there were 25 out of 58 religious groups listed in the RAND-St Andrews University Chronology of International Terrorism. See Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, New York: Columbia University Press, 1998, pp. 90-1;
12. see also Nadine Gurr and Benjamin Cole, The New Face of Terrorism: Threats from Weapons of Mass Destruction, London: I.B. Tauris, 2000, pp. 28-9. Admittedly, some of that increase may be accounted for by changes in how groups are categorized.
13. These figures are derived from an examination of annual data from Patterns of Global Terrorism. See Audrey Kurth Cronin, "Behind the Curve: Globalization and International Terrorism", International Security, Vol. 27 No. 3, Winter 2002/03, pp. 42-3.
14. Richard A. Falkenrath, Robert D. Newman and Bradley A. Thayer, America's Achilles' Heel: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998, pp. 31-46.
15. Another factor is the general increase in off-the-shelf technology that is dual-use in nature. See Dana Shea, Dual-Use Biological Equipment: Difficulties in Domestic Regulation, CRS Report RS21422, Washington DC: CRS.
16. The Central Intelligence Agency, "Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 30 June 2001", accessed at: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/bian/bian_jan_2002.htm, on 11 March 2003.
17. Kimberly McCloud, Gary A. Ackerman and Jeffrey M. Bale, "Chart: Al-Qa'ida's WMD Activities", Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, accessed at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/sjm_cht.htm, on 6 March 2003.
18. "Al Qaeda: Anthrax Found in Al Qaeda home", Global Security Newswire, 10 December 2001;
19. Judith Miller, "Labs Suggest Qaeda Planned to Build Arms, Officials Say", New York Times, 14 September 2002;
20. Judith Miller, "Labs Suggest Qaeda Planned to Build Arms, Officials Say", New York Times, 2002; cited ibid
21. Nick Robertson, "Tapes shed new light on bin Laden's network", 19 August 2002; accessed at http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/08/18/terror.tape.main/index.html, accessed 26 March 2003.
22. Eric Coddy, Matthew Osborne and Kimberly McCloud, "Chemical Terrorist Plot in Rome?", research story of the week, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, accessed at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/020311.htm, on 19 March 2003.
23. Jeffrey M. Bale, Anjali Bhattacharjee, Eric Croddy and Richard Pilch, "Ricin Found in London: An al-Qaida Connection?", CNS Reports, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, accessed at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/ricin.htm, on 6 March 2003.
24. Barton Gellman, "Al Qaeda Near Biological, Chemical Arms Production", The Washington Post, 23 March 2003, pp. A1 and A10.
25. The most well known and oft-cited example is Secretary of Defense William Cohen's 1997 interview with ABC News, where he held up a five-pound bag of sugar and speculated that this amount of anthrax spores could wipe out Washington DC. "Interview with William Cohen", ABC This Week, 16 November 1997, transcript #97111604-j12, New York: American Broadcasting Co., 1997.
26. See Amy E. Smithson and Leslie-Anne Levy, "Grounding the Threat in Reality", Ataxia: The Chemical and Biological Terrorism Threat and the US Response, Report No. 35, Chapter 2, Washington DC: Henry L. Stimson Center, 1999, pp. 11-69; accessed at http://www.stimson.org/cbw/pubs.cfm?id=12.
27. See Smithson and Levy, "Rethinking the Lessons of Tokyo", ibid., pp.71-111.
28. For much more information on this, see Dana Shea, Terrorism: Background on Chemical, Biological, and Toxin Weapons and Options for Lessening Their Impact, CRS Report RL31669, Washington DC: CRS.
29. According to Smithson and Levy, the largest death toll resulting from a single CBW attack was 19, and in 96 percent of the cases three or fewer people were either injured or killed. Ataxia, op. cit., p. xiii.
30. See Paul Wilkinson, "Editor's Introduction: Technology and Terrorism", in Technology and Terrorism, London: Frank Cass, 1993, pp. 1-11. Among terrorism experts, the question of how terrorists use technology, especially the degree to which they innovate technologically, is complex and contentious.
31. For example, see the USA Patriot Act, P.L. 107-5; and the Public Health Security and Bio-terrorism Preparedness and Response Act, P.L. 107-188.
32. For more information, see Dianne E. Rennack, Nuclear, Biological, Chemical and Missile Proliferation Sanctions: Selected Current Law, CRS Report RL31502, Washington DC: CRS;
33. and Sharon A. Squassoni, Steven R. Bowman and Carl E. Behrens, Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status, CRS Report RL31559, Washington DC: CRS.