메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 37, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 449-471

Federal funds rate prediction

Author keywords

Federal funds rate; Forecasting; Nonlinearity; Term structure

Indexed keywords


EID: 22544468075     PISSN: 00222879     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2005.0035     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (23)

References (72)
  • 1
    • 0242670422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing continuous-time models of the spot interest rate
    • Ait-Sahalia, Yacine (1996). "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate." Review of Financial Studies 9, 385-426.
    • (1996) Review of Financial Studies , vol.9 , pp. 385-426
    • Ait-Sahalia, Y.1
  • 3
    • 0031184831 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates
    • Balduzzi, Pierluigi, Giuseppe Bertola, and Silverio Foresi (1997). "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Journal of Monetary Economics 39, 223-249.
    • (1997) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.39 , pp. 223-249
    • Balduzzi, P.1    Bertola, G.2    Foresi, S.3
  • 4
    • 0038463332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts
    • Bansal, Ravi, and Hao Zhou (2002). "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts." Journal of Finance 57, 1997-2043.
    • (2002) Journal of Finance , vol.57 , pp. 1997-2043
    • Bansal, R.1    Zhou, H.2
  • 5
    • 38249027634 scopus 로고
    • Reserve regulation and recourse as a source of risk premia in the federal fund market
    • Berret, W. Brian, Myron B. Slovin, and Marie E. Sushka (1988). "Reserve Regulation and Recourse as a Source of Risk Premia in the Federal Fund Market." Journal of Banking and Finance 12, 575-584.
    • (1988) Journal of Banking and Finance , vol.12 , pp. 575-584
    • Berret, W.B.1    Slovin, M.B.2    Sushka, M.E.3
  • 6
    • 0002657942 scopus 로고
    • Money announcements, the demand for bank reserves, and the behavior of the federal funds rate within the statement week
    • Campbell, John Y. (1987). "Money Announcements, the Demand for Bank Reserves, and the Behavior of the Federal Funds Rate within the Statement Week." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 19, 56-67.
    • (1987) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , vol.19 , pp. 56-67
    • Campbell, J.Y.1
  • 7
    • 0031670190 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy rules in practice: Some international evidence
    • Clarida, Richard H., Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler (1998). "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence." European Economic Review 42, 1033-1067.
    • (1998) European Economic Review , vol.42 , pp. 1033-1067
    • Clarida, R.H.1    Gali, J.2    Gertler, M.3
  • 8
    • 0006260747 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory
    • Clarida, Richard H., Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler (2000). "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory." Quarterly Journal of Economics 115, 147-180.
    • (2000) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.115 , pp. 147-180
    • Clarida, R.H.1    Gali, J.2    Gertler, M.3
  • 9
    • 0037403873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: A step beyond
    • Clarida, Richard H., Lucio Sarno, Mark P. Taylor, and Giorgio Valente (2003). "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond." Journal of International Economics 60, 61-83.
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , pp. 61-83
    • Clarida, R.H.1    Sarno, L.2    Taylor, M.P.3    Valente, G.4
  • 10
    • 22444438845 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of asymmetries and regime shifts in the term structure of interest rates
    • forthcoming
    • Clarida, Richard H., Lucio Sarno, Mark P. Taylor, and Giorgio Valente (2004). "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Journal of Business, forthcoming.
    • (2004) Journal of Business
    • Clarida, R.H.1    Sarno, L.2    Taylor, M.P.3    Valente, G.4
  • 12
    • 0002596525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of the forecast performance of markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP
    • Clements, Michael P., and Hans-Martin Krolzig (1998). "A Comparison of the Forecast Performance of Markov-Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of US GNP." Econometrics Journal 1, C47-C75.
    • (1998) Econometrics Journal , vol.1
    • Clements, M.P.1    Krolzig, H.-M.2
  • 13
    • 70449089152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy shocks. What have we learned at the end?
    • edited by John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford. North-Holland Elsevier Science
    • Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin Eichembaum, and Charles L. Evans (1999). "Monetary Policy Shocks. What Have We Learned at the End?" In Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1A, edited by John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford, pp. 65-148. North-Holland Elsevier Science.
    • (1999) Handbook of Macroeconomics , vol.1 A , pp. 65-148
    • Christiano, L.J.1    Eichembaum, M.2    Evans, C.L.3
  • 14
    • 45349110134 scopus 로고
    • The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s
    • Cook, Timothy, and Thomas Hahn (1989). "The Effect of Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Target on Market Interest Rates in the 1970s." Journal of Monetary Economics 24, 331-351.
    • (1989) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.24 , pp. 331-351
    • Cook, T.1    Hahn, T.2
  • 20
  • 23
    • 0032345729 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Unit-root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rates
    • Enders, Walter, and Clive W.J. Granger (1998). "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 16, 304-311.
    • (1998) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.16 , pp. 304-311
    • Enders, W.1    Granger, C.W.J.2
  • 26
  • 27
    • 0030242133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process
    • Gray, Stephen F. (1996). "Modeling the Conditional Distribution of Interest Rates as a Regime-Switching Process." Journal of Financial Economics 42, 27-62.
    • (1996) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.42 , pp. 27-62
    • Gray, S.F.1
  • 29
    • 70350341192 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling the term structure
    • edited by G.S. Maddala and C.R. Rao. North Holland: Elsevier Science
    • Hall, Anthony D., Vance Martin, and Adrian Pagan (1996). "Modelling the Term Structure." In Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 14, edited by G.S. Maddala and C.R. Rao, pp. 91-118. North Holland: Elsevier Science.
    • (1996) Handbook of Statistics , vol.14 , pp. 91-118
    • Hall, A.D.1    Martin, V.2    Pagan, A.3
  • 30
    • 0000909365 scopus 로고
    • Rational expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime. An investigation of the term structure of interest rates
    • Hamilton, James D. (1988). "Rational Expectations Econometric Analysis of Changes in Regime. An Investigation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control 12, 385-423.
    • (1988) Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control , vol.12 , pp. 385-423
    • Hamilton, J.D.1
  • 31
    • 0001342006 scopus 로고
    • A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle
    • Hamilton, James D. (1989). "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle." Econometrica 57, 357-384.
    • (1989) Econometrica , vol.57 , pp. 357-384
    • Hamilton, J.D.1
  • 32
    • 0001955215 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The daily market for federal funds
    • Hamilton, James D. (1996). "The Daily Market for Federal Funds." Journal of Political Economy 104, 26-56.
    • (1996) Journal of Political Economy , vol.104 , pp. 26-56
    • Hamilton, J.D.1
  • 33
    • 0036803414 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model for the federal funds rate target
    • Hamilton, James, and Oscar Jordá (2001). "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target." Journal of Political Economy 5, 1135-1167.
    • (2001) Journal of Political Economy , vol.5 , pp. 1135-1167
    • Hamilton, J.1    Jordá, O.2
  • 34
    • 21144448250 scopus 로고
    • Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime
    • Hamilton, James D., and Raul Susmel (1994). "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Changes in Regime." Journal of Econometrics 64, 307-333.
    • (1994) Journal of Econometrics , vol.64 , pp. 307-333
    • Hamilton, J.D.1    Susmel, R.2
  • 35
    • 0347354942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model
    • Hansen, Bruce E. (2003). "Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model." Journal of Econometrics 114, 261-295.
    • (2003) Journal of Econometrics , vol.114 , pp. 261-295
    • Hansen, B.E.1
  • 36
    • 0037836631 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models
    • Hansen, Bruce E., and Byeongseon Seo (2002). "Testing for Two-regime Threshold Cointegration in Vector Error-correction Models." Journal of Econometrics 110, 293-318.
    • (2002) Journal of Econometrics , vol.110 , pp. 293-318
    • Hansen, B.E.1    Seo, B.2
  • 37
    • 0001309573 scopus 로고
    • On market timing and investment performance II. Statistical procedures for evaluating forecasting skills
    • Henriksson, Roy D., and Robert C. Merton (1981). "On Market Timing and Investment Performance II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." Journal of Business 54, 513-533.
    • (1981) Journal of Business , vol.54 , pp. 513-533
    • Henriksson, R.D.1    Merton, R.C.2
  • 38
    • 0033445337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: What do we learn from long-horizon regressions?
    • Kilian, Lutz (1999). "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-horizon Regressions?" Journal of Applied Econometrics 14, 491-510.
    • (1999) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.14 , pp. 491-510
    • Kilian, L.1
  • 39
    • 0037403617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?
    • Kilian, Lutz, and Mark P. Taylor (2003). "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?" Journal of International Economics 60, 85-107.
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , pp. 85-107
    • Kilian, L.1    Taylor, M.P.2
  • 41
    • 8744288646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The fed funds futures rate as a predictor of federal reserve policy
    • Krueger, Joel T., and Kenneth N. Kuttner (1996). "The Fed Funds Futures Rate as a Predictor of Federal Reserve Policy." Journal of Futures Markets 16, 865-879.
    • (1996) Journal of Futures Markets , vol.16 , pp. 865-879
    • Krueger, J.T.1    Kuttner, K.N.2
  • 42
    • 0001011206 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the fed funds futures market
    • Kuttner, Kenneth N. (2001). "Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Fed Funds Futures Market." Journal of Monetary Economics 47, 523-544.
    • (2001) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.47 , pp. 523-544
    • Kuttner, K.N.1
  • 43
    • 0033412794 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Near unit roots and the predictive power of yield spreads for changes in long-term interest rates
    • Lanne, Markku J. (1999). "Near Unit Roots and the Predictive Power of Yield Spreads for Changes in Long-Term Interest Rates." Review of Economics and Statistics 81, 393-398.
    • (1999) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.81 , pp. 393-398
    • Lanne, M.J.1
  • 44
    • 0040362440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Near unit roots, cointegration, and the term structure of interests rates
    • Lanne, Markku J. (2000). "Near Unit Roots, Cointegration, and the Term Structure of Interests Rates." Journal of Applied Econometrics 15, 513-529.
    • (2000) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.15 , pp. 513-529
    • Lanne, M.J.1
  • 45
    • 38249010472 scopus 로고
    • The effect of contemporaneous reserve accounting on the market for federal funds
    • Lasser, Dennis J. (1992). "The Effect of Contemporaneous Reserve Accounting on the Market for Federal Funds." Journal of Banking and Finance 16, 1047-1056.
    • (1992) Journal of Banking and Finance , vol.16 , pp. 1047-1056
    • Lasser, D.J.1
  • 46
    • 0001413344 scopus 로고
    • Exchange rates and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon predictability
    • Mark, Nelson C. (1995). "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability." American Economic Review 85, 201-218.
    • (1995) American Economic Review , vol.85 , pp. 201-218
    • Mark, N.C.1
  • 47
    • 0001909961 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust out-of-sample inference
    • McCracken, Michael W. (2000). "Robust Out-of-Sample Inference." Journal of Econometrics 99, 195-223.
    • (2000) Journal of Econometrics , vol.99 , pp. 195-223
    • McCracken, M.W.1
  • 48
    • 33846907054 scopus 로고
    • Empirical exchange rate model of the seventies
    • Meese, Richard A., and Kenneth Rogoff (1983). "Empirical Exchange Rate Model of the Seventies." Journal of International Economics 14, 3-24.
    • (1983) Journal of International Economics , vol.14 , pp. 3-24
    • Meese, R.A.1    Rogoff, K.2
  • 49
    • 0002254780 scopus 로고
    • The evaluation of economic forecast
    • edited by J. Mincer. New York, NY: National Bureau for Economic Research
    • Mincer, J., and V. Zarnowitz (1969). "The Evaluation of Economic Forecast." In Economic Forecasts and Expectations, edited by J. Mincer. New York, NY: National Bureau for Economic Research.
    • (1969) Economic Forecasts and Expectations
    • Mincer, J.1    Zarnowitz, V.2
  • 51
    • 0000962634 scopus 로고
    • The prediction performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN model of the U.S. economy
    • Nelson, Charles R. (1972). "The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy." American Economic Review 62, 902-917.
    • (1972) American Economic Review , vol.62 , pp. 902-917
    • Nelson, C.R.1
  • 52
    • 0000641348 scopus 로고
    • Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach
    • Nelson, Daniel B. (1990). "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach." Econometrica 59, 347-370.
    • (1990) Econometrica , vol.59 , pp. 347-370
    • Nelson, D.B.1
  • 53
    • 0000706085 scopus 로고
    • A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix
    • Newey, Withney K., and Kenneth D. West (1987). "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix." Econometrica 55, 703-708.
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , pp. 703-708
    • Newey, W.K.1    West, K.D.2
  • 56
    • 0030550697 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A daily view of yield spreads and short-term interest rate movements
    • Roberds, William, David Runkle, and Charles H. Whitman (1996). "A Daily View of Yield Spreads and Short-Term Interest Rate Movements." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 28, 34-53.
    • (1996) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , vol.28 , pp. 34-53
    • Roberds, W.1    Runkle, D.2    Whitman, C.H.3
  • 57
    • 58149362804 scopus 로고
    • Federal reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure
    • Rudebusch, Glenn D. (1995). "Federal Reserve Interest Rate Targeting, Rational Expectations, and the Term Structure." Journal of Monetary Economics 35, 245-274.
    • (1995) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.35 , pp. 245-274
    • Rudebusch, G.D.1
  • 58
    • 0038405240 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation
    • Sarno, Lucio, and Daniel L. Thornton (2003). "The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds Rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation." Journal of Banking and Finance 27, 1079-1110.
    • (2003) Journal of Banking and Finance , vol.27 , pp. 1079-1110
    • Sarno, L.1    Thornton, D.L.2
  • 59
  • 60
    • 0038383895 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cointegration, long-run movements, and long-horizon forecasting
    • edited by David M. Kreps, and Kenneth F. Wallis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Stock, James H. (1997). "Cointegration, Long-run Movements, and Long-Horizon Forecasting." In Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Seventh World Congress, Vol. 3, edited by David M. Kreps, and Kenneth F. Wallis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1997) Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Seventh World Congress , vol.3
    • Stock, J.H.1
  • 62
    • 77956750491 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Business cycles fluctuations in US macroeconomic time series
    • edited by John B. Taylor, and Michael Woodford. North Holland: Elsevier Science
    • Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson (1999a). "Business Cycles Fluctuations in US Macroeconomic Time Series." In Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1A, edited by John B. Taylor, and Michael Woodford, pp. 1-64. North Holland: Elsevier Science.
    • (1999) Handbook of Macroeconomics , vol.1 A , pp. 1-64
    • Stock, J.H.1    Watson, M.W.2
  • 63
    • 0012675693 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of linear and nonlinear univariate models for forecasting macroeconomic time series
    • edited by Robert Engle, and Halbert L. White. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press
    • Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson (1999b). "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series." In Cointegration, Causality and Forecasting: A Festschrift for Clive W.J. Granger, edited by Robert Engle, and Halbert L. White, pp. 1-44. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
    • (1999) Cointegration, Causality and Forecasting: A Festschrift for Clive W.J. Granger , pp. 1-44
    • Stock, J.H.1    Watson, M.W.2
  • 65
    • 0035444908 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Choosing among competing econometric forecasts: Regression-based forecast combination using model selection
    • Swanson, Norman R., and Tian Zeng (2001). "Choosing Among Competing Econometric Forecasts: Regression-Based Forecast Combination Using Model Selection." Journal of Forecasting 20, 425-440.
    • (2001) Journal of Forecasting , vol.20 , pp. 425-440
    • Swanson, N.R.1    Zeng, T.2
  • 68
    • 0009937070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Expectations, open market operations, and changes in the federal funds rate
    • Taylor, John B. (2001). "Expectations, Open Market Operations, and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 83, 33-47.
    • (2001) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review , vol.83 , pp. 33-47
    • Taylor, J.B.1
  • 69
    • 0347129604 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?
    • Thornton, Daniel L. (2004). "The Fed and Short-Term Rates: Is It open Market Operations, Open Mouth Operations or Interest Rate Smoothing?" Journal of Banking and Finance 28, 475-498.
    • (2004) Journal of Banking and Finance , vol.28 , pp. 475-498
    • Thornton, D.L.1
  • 71
    • 0030353235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymptotic inference about predictive ability
    • West, Kenneth D. (1996). "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability." Econometrica 64, 1067-1084.
    • (1996) Econometrica , vol.64 , pp. 1067-1084
    • West, K.D.1
  • 72
    • 0346362776 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regression-based tests of predictive ability
    • West, Kenneth D., and Michael W. McCracken (1998). "Regression-based Tests of Predictive Ability." International Economic Review 39, 817-840.
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 817-840
    • West, K.D.1    McCracken, M.W.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.