메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 37, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 472-494

Evaluating the predictability of exchange rates using long-horizon regressions: Mind your p's and q's!

Author keywords

Exchange rates; Forecast evaluation; Long horizon regression

Indexed keywords


EID: 22544462209     PISSN: 00222879     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2005.0032     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (21)

References (41)
  • 1
    • 0001677717 scopus 로고
    • Controlling the false discovery rate: A practical and powerful approach to multiple testing
    • Benjamini, Y., and Y. Hochberg (1995). "Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 57, 289-300.
    • (1995) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B , vol.57 , pp. 289-300
    • Benjamini, Y.1    Hochberg, Y.2
  • 2
    • 0035733108 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The control of the false discovery rate in multiple testing under dependency
    • Benjamini, Y., and D. Yekutieli (2001). "The Control of the False Discovery Rate in Multiple Testing Under Dependency." The Annals of Statistics 29, 1165-1188.
    • (2001) The Annals of Statistics , vol.29 , pp. 1165-1188
    • Benjamini, Y.1    Yekutieli, D.2
  • 3
    • 0004165485 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?
    • Erasmus University
    • Berben, R.P., and D. van Dijk (1998). "Does the Absence of Cointegration Explain the Typical Findings in Long Horizon Regressions?" Econometric Institute Report 145, Erasmus University.
    • (1998) Econometric Institute Report , vol.145
    • Berben, R.P.1    Van Dijk, D.2
  • 5
    • 84977419460 scopus 로고
    • The current experience with floating exchange rates: An appraisal of the monetary approach
    • Bilson, J. (1978). "The Current Experience with Floating Exchange Rates: An Appraisal of the Monetary Approach." American Economic Review 68, 392-97.
    • (1978) American Economic Review , vol.68 , pp. 392-397
    • Bilson, J.1
  • 6
  • 8
    • 0001126361 scopus 로고
    • Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?
    • Chinn, M., and R. Meese (1995). "Banking on Currency Forecasts: How Predictable is Change in Money?" Journal of International Economics 38, 161-178.
    • (1995) Journal of International Economics , vol.38 , pp. 161-178
    • Chinn, M.1    Meese, R.2
  • 9
    • 84962992067 scopus 로고
    • Econometric evaluation of linear macroeconomic models
    • Chong, Y.Y., and D.F. Hendry (1986). "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macroeconomic Models." Review of Economic Studies 53, 671-90.
    • (1986) Review of Economic Studies , vol.53 , pp. 671-690
    • Chong, Y.Y.1    Hendry, D.F.2
  • 10
    • 0037403873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: A step beyond
    • Clarida, R., L. Sarno, M. Taylor, and G. Valente (2003). "The Out-of-sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond." Journal of International Economics 60, 61-83.
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , pp. 61-83
    • Clarida, R.1    Sarno, L.2    Taylor, M.3    Valente, G.4
  • 11
    • 0003047270 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encom-passing for nested models
    • Clark, T.E., and M.W. McCracken (2001). "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encom-passing for Nested Models." Journal of Econometrics 105, 85-110.
    • (2001) Journal of Econometrics , vol.105 , pp. 85-110
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 12
    • 8344290789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and University of Missouri-Columbia
    • Clark, T.E., and M.W. McCracken (2003a). "Evaluating Long Horizon Forecasts." Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and University of Missouri-Columbia.
    • (2003) Evaluating Long Horizon Forecasts
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 13
    • 11344273249 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural change
    • forthcoming
    • Clark, T.E., and M.W. McCracken (2003b). "The Power of Tests of Predictive Ability in the Presence of Structural Change." Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming.
    • (2003) Journal of Econometrics
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 14
    • 0346389567 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A consistent test for nonlinear out-of-sample predictive accuracy
    • Corradi, V., and N.R. Swanson (2002). "A Consistent Test for Nonlinear Out-of-sample Predictive Accuracy." Journal of Econometrics 110, 353-381.
    • (2002) Journal of Econometrics , vol.110 , pp. 353-381
    • Corradi, V.1    Swanson, N.R.2
  • 17
    • 77956842194 scopus 로고
    • Empirical research on nominal exchange rates
    • edited by G. Grossman and K. Rogoff, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science
    • Frankel, J., and A. Rose (1995). "Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates." In Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3, edited by G. Grossman and K. Rogoff, pp. 1689-1729. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
    • (1995) Handbook of International Economics , vol.3 , pp. 1689-1729
    • Frankel, J.1    Rose, A.2
  • 18
    • 0000634137 scopus 로고
    • A monetary approach to the exchange rate: Doctrinal aspects and Empirical evidence
    • Frenkel, J. (1976). "A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 78, 200-224.
    • (1976) Scandinavian Journal of Economics , vol.78 , pp. 200-224
    • Frenkel, J.1
  • 20
    • 0033445337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: What do we learn from long-horizon regressions?
    • Kilian, L. (1999). "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What do we Learn from Long-horizon Regressions?" Journal of Applied Econometrics 14, 491-510.
    • (1999) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.14 , pp. 491-510
    • Kilian, L.1
  • 21
    • 0037403617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?
    • Kilian, L., and M. Taylor (2003). "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?" Journal of International Economics 60, 85-107.
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , pp. 85-107
    • Kilian, L.1    Taylor, M.2
  • 22
    • 77956801605 scopus 로고
    • Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency
    • edited by R.W. Jones and P.B. Kenen, Amsterdam: North Holland
    • Levich, R. (1985). "Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determination and Market Efficiency." In Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 2, edited by R.W. Jones and P.B. Kenen, pp. 980-1040. Amsterdam: North Holland.
    • (1985) Handbook of International Economics , vol.2 , pp. 980-1040
    • Levich, R.1
  • 23
    • 0039768935 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On fundamentals and exchange rates: A casselian perspective
    • MacDonald, R., and I. Marsh (1997). "On Fundamentals and Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective." Review of Economics and Statistics 79, 655-664.
    • (1997) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.79 , pp. 655-664
    • MacDonald, R.1    Marsh, I.2
  • 24
    • 0001413344 scopus 로고
    • Exchange rates and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon predictability
    • Mark, N. (1995). "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-horizon Predictability." American Economic Review 85, 201-218.
    • (1995) American Economic Review , vol.85 , pp. 201-218
    • Mark, N.1
  • 27
    • 33846907054 scopus 로고
    • Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out-of-sample?
    • Meese, R.A., and K. Rogoff (1983a). "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do they Fit Out-of-sample?" Journal of International Economics 14, 3-24.
    • (1983) Journal of International Economics , vol.14 , pp. 3-24
    • Meese, R.A.1    Rogoff, K.2
  • 28
    • 0001851162 scopus 로고
    • The out-of-sample failure of empirical exchange rate models
    • edited by J. Frenkel, Chicago: University of Chicago Press
    • Meese, R., and K. Rogoff (1983b). "The Out-of-sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models." In Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, edited by J. Frenkel, pp. 67-105. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    • (1983) Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics , pp. 67-105
    • Meese, R.1    Rogoff, K.2
  • 29
    • 84977732024 scopus 로고
    • Was it real? The exchange rate-interest differential relation over the modern floating-rate period
    • Meese, R.A., and K. Rogoff (1988). "Was it Real? The Exchange Rate-interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-rate Period." Journal of Finance 43, 933-948.
    • (1988) Journal of Finance , vol.43 , pp. 933-948
    • Meese, R.A.1    Rogoff, K.2
  • 30
    • 0000634139 scopus 로고
    • The exchange rate, the balance of payments and monetary and fiscal policy under a regime of controlled floating
    • Mussa, M. (1976). "The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 78, 229-248.
    • (1976) Scandinavian Journal of Economics , vol.78 , pp. 229-248
    • Mussa, M.1
  • 31
    • 0141589707 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?
    • Neely, C., and L. Sarno (2002). "How well do Monetary Fundamentals Forecast Exchange Rates?" Review Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis 84, 51-74.
    • (2002) Review Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis , vol.84 , pp. 51-74
    • Neely, C.1    Sarno, L.2
  • 32
    • 0000706085 scopus 로고
    • A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix
    • Newey, W.K., and K.D. West (1987). "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix." Econometrica 55, 703-708.
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , pp. 703-708
    • Newey, W.K.1    West, K.D.2
  • 33
    • 0036888014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: New evidence from a century of data
    • Rapach, D., and M. Wohar (2002). "Testing the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination: New Evidence from a Century of Data." Journal of International Economics 58, 359-385.
    • (2002) Journal of International Economics , vol.58 , pp. 359-385
    • Rapach, D.1    Wohar, M.2
  • 36
    • 0345822598 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The positive false discovery rate: A Bayesian interpretation and the q-value
    • Storey, J.D. (2003). "The Positive False Discovery Rate: A Bayesian Interpretation and the q-value." The Annals of Statistics 31, 2013-2035.
    • (2003) The Annals of Statistics , vol.31 , pp. 2013-2035
    • Storey, J.D.1
  • 37
    • 1142273091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strong control, conservative point estimation, and simultaneous conservative consistency of false discovery rates: A unified approach
    • Storey, J.D., J.E. Taylor, and D. Siegmund (2003). "Strong Control, Conservative Point Estimation, and Simultaneous Conservative Consistency of False Discovery Rates: A Unified Approach." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 66, 187-205.
    • (2003) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B , vol.66 , pp. 187-205
    • Storey, J.D.1    Taylor, J.E.2    Siegmund, D.3
  • 38
    • 0003670427 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating false discovery rates under dependence with applications to DNA microarrays
    • Department of Statistics, Stanford University
    • Storey, J.D., and R. Tibshirani (2001). "Estimating False Discovery Rates under Dependence with Applications to DNA Microarrays." Technical Report 2001-28, Department of Statistics, Stanford University.
    • (2001) Technical Report , vol.2001 , Issue.28
    • Storey, J.D.1    Tibshirani, R.2
  • 40
    • 0003045718 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Non-linear mean-reversion in real exchange rates: Towards a solution to the purchasing power parity puzzles
    • Taylor, M., D. Peel, and L. Sarno (2001). "Non-linear Mean-reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles." International Economic-Review 42, 1015-1042.
    • (2001) International Economic-review , vol.42 , pp. 1015-1042
    • Taylor, M.1    Peel, D.2    Sarno, L.3
  • 41
    • 0030353235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymptotic inference about predictive ability
    • West, K.D. (1996). "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability." Econometrica 64, 1067-1084.
    • (1996) Econometrica , vol.64 , pp. 1067-1084
    • West, K.D.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.