Labour market performance and macroeconomic policy: The time varying NAIRU in the CR

Finance a Uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Volumn 55, Issue 1-2, 2005, Pages 25-40

  Hurník, Jaromír ^a   Navrátil, David ^b,c  

^a CZECH NATIONAL BANK   (Czech Republic)

^b Czech Savings Bank   (Czech Republic)

^c Ceska Sporitelna as   (Czech Republic)

Author keywords

Forward looking expectations; Maximum likelihood methods; Non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; Time varying NAIRU

Indexed keywords

EID: 22544461037     PISSN: 00151920     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. AKERLOF, G. A. - DICKENS, W. T. - PERRY, G. L. (2000): Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2000, no. 1, pp. 1-60.
2. AMANO, R. A. - NORDEN, S. (1992): Unit-Root Tests and the Burden of Proof. Bank of Canada, Working Paper.
3. BARRO, R. - TENREYRO, S. (2000): Closed and Open Economy Models of Business Cycles with Marked and Sticky Prices. NBER Working Paper, 2000, no. 8043.
4. BASDEVANT, O. (2003): On Applications of State-Space Modelling in Macroeconomics. Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Discussion Paper, 2003, no. 2.
5. BENEŠ, J. - N'DIAYE, P. (2004): A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU: Application to The Czech Republic. IMF Working Paper, no. 04/45.
6. BENEŠ, J. - VŚVRA, D. (2003): Nominal Inertia in the Business Cycle: Backward Indexation and Structural Inflation Persistence. Prague, Czech National Bank - mimeo.
7. BETTS, C. - DEVEREUX, M. (1996): The Exchange Rate in a Model of Pricing to Market. European Economic Review, vol. 40, 1996, pp. 1007-1021.
8. BEZDĚK, V. - DYBCZAK, K. - KREJDL, A. (2003): Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis. Czech National Bank, Working Paper, 2003, no. 7.
9. BLAKE, A. P. (2002): State-Space Models and the Kalman Filter: Application, Formulation and Estimating. Bank of England, CCBS - mimeo.
10. BLANCHARD, O. (1999): European Unemployment: The Role of Shocks and Institutions. Roma, Lezioni Paolo Baffi, 1999.
11. CALVO, G. A. (1983): Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 12, 1983, no. 3, pp. 983-998.
12. CNB (2004): Financial Market Inflation Expectations 1999-2004. Prague, Czech National Bank, http://www.cnb.cz.
13. DRIVER, R. L. - GREENSLADE, J. V. - PIERSE, R. G. (2003): The Role of Expectations in Estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom. Bank of England, Working Paper, no. 180.
14. ELMESKOV, J. (1993): High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes. Paris, OECD, Working Paper, no. 132.
15. FRANZ, W. (2003): Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up. ZEW Discussion Paper, 2003, no. 35.
16. FUHRER, J. C. - MOORE, G. R. (1995): Inflation Persistence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110, 1995, no. 1, pp. 127-159.
17. FUKAČ, M. (2003): Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment. Mimeo
18. GALÍ, J. - GERTLER, M. (1999): Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1999, no. 44, pp. 195-222.
19. GALÍ, J. - MONACELLI, T. (2002): Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy. NBER Working Paper, no. 8905.
20. GORDON, R. J. (1997): The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 11, 1997, pp. 11-32.
21. GREENSLADE, J. V. - PIERSE, R. G. - SALEHEEN, J. (2003): A Kalman Filter Approach to Estimating the UK NAIRU. Bank of England, Working Paper, no. 179.
22. HAJEK, M. - BEZDĚK, V. (2000): Odhad potenciálního produktu a produkční mezery v ČR. (Estimate of Potential Output and the Output Gap in the Czech Republic) Czech National Bank, Working Paper, 2000, no. 26.
23. HAMILTON, J. D. (1994): Time Series Analysis. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1994.
24. HARVEY, A. C. (1989): Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press, 1989.
25. HARVEY, A. C. (1993): Time Series Models. 2nd edition. The MIT Press, 1993.
26. HURNÍK, J. - NAVRÁTIL, D. (2002): Transmise poptávkových tlaků do inflace a vnější nerovnováhy. (Transmission of Excess Demand into Inflation and External Imbalance - in Czech) In: Varadzim, F. (ed.): Růstové a cyklické souvislosti vyvoje transformujících se ekonomik. Ostrava, VŠB-TU, 2002.
27. HURNÍK, J. - NAVRÁTIL, D. (2005): Potential Output Estimation: A Production Function Approach. Prague Economic Papers (forthcoming).
28. CHRISTIANO, L. J. - EICHENBAUM, M. - EVANS, C. L. (2001): Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy. www.faculty.econ.nwu.edu/faculty/christiano/research/modeling/papermay10-2001. pdf.
29. KOTLÁN, V. (2002): Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy. Czech National Bank, Working Paper, 2002, no. 1.
30. th Q, pp. 23-43.
31. KWIATKOWSKI, D. - PHILLIPS, P. C. B. - SCHMIDT, P. - SHIN, Y. (1992): Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics, 1992, no. 54, pp. 159-178.
32. McCALLUM, B. T. - NELSON, E. (2001): Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices. NBER Working Paper, no. 8175.
33. OBSTFELD, M. - ROGOFF, K. (1996): Foundations of International Macroeconomics. The MIT Press, 1996.
34. PHILLIPS, A. W. (1958): The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica, 1958, November, pp. 283-299.
35. RICHARDSON, P. - BOONE, L. - GIORNO, C. - MEACCI, M. - RAE, D. - TURNER, D. (2000): The Concept, Policy and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU across 21 OECD Countries. OECD Working Paper, 2000, no. 250.
36. STAIGER, D. - STOCK, J. H. - WATSON, M. H. (1996): How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? In: Romer, C. D. - Romer, D. H. (eds.): Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy. University of Chicago Press, 1996.
37. TURNER, D. - BOONE, L. - GIORNO, C. - MEACCI, M. - RAE, D. - RICHARDSON, P. (2001): Estimating the Structural Rate of Unemployment for the OECD Countries. OECD Economic Studies, 2001, no. 33.
38. VAŠÍČEK, O. - FUKAČ, M. (2000): Quantitative Analysis of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and Non-Accelerating Inflation Product. Application for the Czech Republic. Masaryk University Brno, Working Paper, 2000.