Latin American challenges: Has the future arrived for Brazil?

Orbis

Volumn 44, Issue 3, 2000, Pages 399-414

  Perry, William ^a  

^a William Perry and Associates   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 22244466112     PISSN: 00304387     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/s0030-4387(00)00034-x     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Ronald M. Schneider, Brazil: Foreign Policy of a Future World Power (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1976).
2. Wayne A. Selcher, Political Liberalization in Brazil: Dynamics, Dilemmas, and Future Prospects (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1986) provides a detailed view of the process.
3. For an in-depth overview of the political development and history of Brazil, see Ronald M. Schneider, Order and Progress: A Political History of Brazil (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1991).
4. The Partido dos Trabalhadores came out of the São Paulo labor movement and was initially the most significant Marxist party to emerge under Brazil's new democratic political system. Its perennial leader da Silva has been the principal radical alternative in all three presidential elections since then. Meanwhile, although a more moderate faction has emerged, the PT still constitutes the most visible opposition to the liberalizing initiatives of the Cardoso administration.
5. For the complete version of this plan, see Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Maos a Obra, Brasil: Proposta de Governo (Hands to Work: Proposal for Government) (Brasilia: n.p., 1994).
6. The Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira originated in a mass defection of the "progressive" wing of the PMDB (see n. 14) prior to the elections of 1989. Often known as the Tucanos (from the tropical bird which is the party's symbol), its members drew their inspiration from Europe's social democratic parties. Having chosen Fernando Henrique Cardoso as its candidate in 1994 and entered into alliance with the PFL, however, the PSDB has been supporting the liberalizing precepts of the Real Plan.
7. The Partido da Frente Liberal sprang from a split among backers of the military regime over the candidate to be fielded in the indirect elections of 1984. The PFL broke ranks with its former colleagues in ARENA (briefly reconfigured as the Partido Democrático Trabalhista) to support the candidacy of Tancredo Neves and named one of its number, José Sarney, his running mate. When Neves died on the eve of his inauguration in 1985, Sarney became the first civilian president of Brazil since 1964. Subsequently, the PFL has become Brazil's major center-right party - entering into alliance with the PSDB to form the core of support for both Cardoso administrations (with PFL member Marco Maciel as the country's vice president).
8. The Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro is an old name in Brazilian politics, but during recent years has been largely a flag of convenience for candidates who could not secure nominations from large parties. The PTB's modest congressional delegation (about 30 members) is nonideological and opportunistic, impelling it to join with the PSDB and PFL as a very junior member of the current ruling coalition.
9. Bolivia and Chile later subscribed to the Mercado Común del Sur as associate members.
10. For greater detail on the 1998 elections, see William Perry, "The 1998 Brazilian Elections: Pre-election Report," Western Hemisphere Election Study Series (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Sept. 14, 1998);
11. and "The 1998 Brazilian Elections: Post-election Report," Western Hemisphere Election Study Series (Nov. 11, 1998).
12. For greater detail on the political and economic implications of the economic crisis, see Alexandre Barros and Alkimar R. Moura, "The Brazilian Economic Crisis: Political and Economic Implications," The Latin American Program Working Paper Series (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Aug. 1999).
13. For greater detail, see "Why the President Gets Tied Down," Euromoney, Oct. 1999.
14. Brazil's military-dominated governments enforced a simple division between their supporters, mustered under the banner of the National Renovating Alliance (Aliança Renovadora Nacional -ARENA), and their opponents, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (Movimento Democrático Brasileiro - MDB). As the country moved toward democracy, the number of parties proliferated exponentially, and there are now more than two dozen.
15. The Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro is the linear descendant of the broad civilian coalition (MDB) that opposed continued military rule and dominated the New Republic at its inception in 1985. Since that time, however, defections have reduced its numbers in congress to rough parity with the PSDB and PFL (presently, the "big three" parties in congress, with about one hundred members each in the 517-seat Chamber of Deputies). Today the PMDB, divided into various internal factions, constitutes the soft, nonideological center of Brazilian politics, and has so far been generally willing to cooperate with the Cardoso administration.
16. The Partido Progressista Brasileiro represents the supporters of the former military governments, who remained loyal to their party's unsuccessful bid for the presidency in the elections of 1984. After several name changes, it settled in as a conservative party of the second rank, with strength limited to specific localities and a few distinguished personalities from the old regime. The PPB has generally supported the Cardoso administration - choosing not to field its own presidential candidate in 1998 and allowing one of its members to accept a cabinet position in the incumbent government.
17. For detailed polling results, as of March 2000, see "Popularidade Presidencial Ainda Fragil" (Presidential popularity still weak), Follow-up Político, Goes & Consultores Associados (Brasilia), Mar. 9, 2000.
18. For detailed economic statistics and indicators, as of February 2000, see "Brazil: Latin America Monitor," Business Monitor International, Feb. 2000.
19. Brazil: Latin America Monitor Business Monitor International, 2000. Ibid.
20. As perceptively noted in "The Nationalist Groundswell in Brazil," The Economist, Feb. 26, 2000.
21. Figures from Vox Populi survey of December 11 and 12, 1999, cited in "Primeira rodada de pesquisas Vox Populi mostra força das oposicões" (First round of Vox Populi polling shows strength of opposition forces) Follow-up Político, Dec. 1999. (Vox Populi is a prominent polling firm.)
22. The Partido Popular Socialista was Brazil's old Communist Party before the advent of the New Republic. Suppressed by the previous military governments, it remains a tiny presence on the national political stage, despite having been adopted as the vehicle for the presidential aspirations of Ciro Gomes prior to the 1998 campaign season.
23. See E. Bradford Burns, The Unwritten Alliance: Rio Branco and Brazilian-American Relations (New York: Colombia University Press, 1966).
24. Roger W. Fontaine, "The End of a Beautiful Relationship," Foreign Policy, Fall 1977, pp. 166-74.
25. On the security implications of the proposed hemisphere-wide free-trade zone, see Georges A. Farriol and William Perry, "Thinking Strategically about 2005: The United States and South America," Policy Papers on the Americas (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dec. 1999).
26. For greater detail on the importance of Brazil to the United States, see William Perry, "Brazil: Too Important to Ignore," Policy Papers on the Americas, July 15, 1996.