Missile science, population science: The origins of China's one-child policy

China Quarterly

Volumn , Issue 182, 2005, Pages 253-276

  Greenhalgh, Susan ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEMOGRAPHIC HISTORY; FAMILY PLANNING; HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE; POLICY MAKING;

ASIA; CHINA; EASTERN HEMISPHERE; EURASIA; FAR EAST; WORLD;

EID: 22144446435     PISSN: 03057410     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0305741005000184     Document Type: Article

References (121)

1. Lee and Wang note that the draconian birth planning programme of the 1980s and 1990s was based on "little more than 19th-century [Malthusian] theory" attributing China's poverty largely to overpopulation. James Z. Lee and Wang Feng, One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Realities, 1700-2000 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1999), p. 21. This article employs the conventional term, one-child policy, even though since 1984 many rural couples have been allowed two children.
2. H. Yuan Tien, China's Strategic Demographic Initiative (New York: Praeger, 1991), pp. 107-112;
3. Thomas Scharping, Birth Control in China, 1949-2000 (London: Routledge, 2003), pp. 39-40, 53.
4. Song Jian, "System science and policy-making" (1995), in Song Jian, Song Jian kexue lunwen xuanji (Selected Scientific Papers of Song Jian) (Beijing: Kexue chubanshe, 1999), p. 537.
5. The classic text is Norbert Wiener, Cybernetics; or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine (New York: Technology Press, 1948). In China cybernetics is generally called "control theory science."
6. See Song Jian, "System science and policy-making," p. 534.
7. John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, China Builds the Bomb (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1988);
8. John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, China's Strategic Seapower: The Politics a Force Modernization in the Nuclear Age (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1994);
9. Evan A. Feigenbaum, China's Techno-Warriors: National Security and Strategic Compention from the Nuclear to the Information Age (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003).
10. This argument extends Feigenbaum's arguments to social and economic policy-making. See ibid. pp. 71-140.
11. See n. 5.
12. E.g. Herbert F. York, The Advisors: Oppenheimer, Teller, anti the Superbomb (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1989);
13. William J. Broad, Teller's War: The Top-Secret Story behind the Star Wars Deception (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992);
14. Lorna Anderson, Britain and the H-Bomb (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2001);
15. David Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy, 1939-1956 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1994).
16. Carol Hamrin, China and the Challenge of the Future: Changing Political Patterns (Boulder: Westview, 1990), esp. pp. 51-53;
17. Nina P. Halpern, "Scientific decision making: the organization of expert advice in post-Mao China," in Denis Fred Simon and Merle Goldman (eds.), Science and Technology in Post-Mao China (Cambridge, MA: Council on E. Asian Studies, Harvard University, 1989), pp. 157-174.
18. Key monographs include Richard P. Suttmeier, Science, Technology and China's Drive for Modernization (Stanford: Hoover. 1990):
19. Tony Saich, China's Science Policy in the 80s (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1989);
20. H. Lyman Miller, Science and Disssent in Post-Mao China: The Politics of Knowledge (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1996).
21. The classic studies are Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar, Laboraton, Life: The Construction of Scientific Facts (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986);
22. Bruno Latour, Science in Action: How to Follow Scientists and Engineers Through Society (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1987).
23. Susan Greenhalgh, Science, Modernity, and the Making of China's One-Child Policy, in progress.
24. This discussion is based on Feigenbaum, China's Techno-Warriors;
25. Lewis and Xue, China Builds the Bomb and China's Strategic Seapower;
26. John Wilson Lewis, Hua Di and Xue Litai "Beijing's defence establishment," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1991), pp. 86-109.
27. The following biography is based on Huang Shouzeng, "Song Jian jianli" ("Brief biography of Song Jian"), in Song Jian, Selected Scientific Papers, pp. 744-752.
28. Song was first to apply optimal control theory to missile guidance and control.
29. On Qian, see Feigenbaum, China's Techno-Warriors;
30. Lewis and Xue, China's Strategic Seapower;
31. Iris Chang, Thread of the Silkworm (New York: Basic, 1995).
32. Song Jian, "Systems science and China's economic reforms" (1985), in Yang Jiachi (ed.). Control Science and Technology for Development (CSTD '85) (Oxford: Pergamon, 1986), pp. 2-3.
33. Donella H. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind (New York: Universe, 1972);
34. Mihajlo Mesaraovic and Eduard Pestel, Mankind at the Turning Point: The Second Report to the Club of Rome (New York: E.P. Dutton & Co, 1974).
35. E.g. H. S. D. Cole et al. (eds.), Models of Doom: A Critique of the Limits to Growth (New York: Universe, 1973).
36. A. Niemi et al. (eds.), A Link Between Science and Applications of Automatic Control, 4 vols. (Oxford: Pergamon. 1979).
37. Esp. Song Jian, "Cong xiandai kexue kan renkou wenti" ("Population problems from the perspective of modern science"), Guangming ribao (Guangming Daily). 3 October 1980, in Song Jian, Selected Scientific Papers, pp. 549-554.
38. E.g. Song Jian, "Some developments in mathematical demography and their application to the People's Republic of China," Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 22 (1982), pp. 382-83;
39. Song Jian, "Systems science and China's economic reforms";
40. Song Jian, "System science and policy-making."
41. On the elite politics of population at this time, see Susan Greenhalgh and Edwin A. Winckler, Governing China's Population: From Leninist to Neoliberal Biopolitics (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2005), ch. 4.
42. Entries in Yang Kuixue et al. (eds.) Zhongguo renkou yu jihua shengyu dashi yaolan (Main Events in China's Population and Birth Planning [Hislory]) (Beijing: Zhongguo renkou chubanshe, 2001).
43. The total fertility rate is the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given set of age-specific fertility rates.
44. Yang et al., Main Events, p. 66.
45. Interview with top population official in the 1970s, 25 December 2003, Beijing.
46. Interview with Chinese population specialist, 1 May 2003, Minneapolis.
47. H. Yuan Tien, China's Population Struggle (Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 1973), pp. 163-231.
48. Interviews with Chinese population specialist, 13 November 1985, Beijing;
49. and birth planning official, 15 December 2003, Beijing.
50. Liu Zheng et al., Renkou lilun (Population Theory) (Beijing: Shangwu yinshuguan, 1977).
51. Liu Zheng, Wu Cangping and Lin Fude, "Dui kongzhi woguo renkou zengzhang de wu dian jianyi" ("Five recommendations for controlling China's population growth"), Renkou yanjiu (Population Research), No. 3 (1980), pp. 1-5.
52. Interview with member of Song group, 16 November 1999, Beijing.
53. Interview with member of Song team, 24 December 2003, Beijing.
54. Depiction of social science based on interviews with Chinese social scientists in Beijing, Tianjin, Xi'an, Chengdu, Nanjing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in 1985 and 1986, and with the cyberneticists in Beijing in 1986, 1987 and 2003.
55. For the data story, see Susan Greenhalgh, "Science, modernity, and the making of China's one-child policy," Population and Development Review, Vol. 29, No. 2 (2003), pp. 163-196.
56. On data problems, see Judith Banister, China's Changing Population (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1987),pp. 12-20.
57. Song Jian, "Population problems from the perspective;"
58. Song Jian. "Population development - goals and plans," in Liu Zheng, Song Jian et al. (eds.), China's Population: Problems and Prospects (Beijing: New World Press, 1980), pp. 25-31.
59. I b i d.
60. Feigenbaum, China's Techno-Warriors, pp. 13-68.
61. Yang et al., Great Events, p. 64
62. E.g. Song Jian, "Population problems from the perspective," "Population development," "Some developments in mathematical demography," pp. 382-383.
63. Based on consultations with Chinese missile specialist and Chinese population cyberneticist, 16 December 2003.
64. Huibert Kwakernaak, "Application of control theory to population policy," in A. Bensoussan and J.L. Lions (eds.), Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences: New Trends in Systems Analysis (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1977), pp. 359-378;
65. also G.J. Olsder and R.C.W. Strijbos, "Population planning: a distributed time optimal control problem," in Jean Cea (ed.), Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Optimization Techniques: Modeling and Optimization in the Service of Man, Part 1 (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1976), pp. 721-735.
66. Interview, 24 December 2003, Beijing.
67. Song Jian, "Population problems from the perspective." For details, Song Jian et al., Renkou yuce he renkou kongzhi (Population Projections and Population Control) (Beijing: Renmin chubanshe, 1982).
68. Kwakernaak, "Application of control theory," p. 365;
69. Edward Goldsmith et al., Blueprint for Survival (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1972).
70. Interviews, 21 and 24 December 2003, Beijing.
71. Song Jian, "Population problems from the perspective";
72. Song Jian and Li Guangyuan, "Renkou kongzhi wenti" ("Problems of population control"), Ziran zazhi (Nature), Vol. 2, No. 9 (1979), pp. 570-74. Almost every Song publication for a non-technical audience featured the scientistic rhetoric of the precision, accuracy and truth of modern mathematics.
73. Wendy Frieman, "China's military R&D system: reform and reorientation," in Simon and Goldman, Science and Technology, pp. 265;
74. Feigenbaum, China's Techno-Warriors, pp. 139-140.
75. Frieman, "China's military R&D," p. 284.
76. Li Xiuzhen, "Dangqian jihua shengyu gongzuo de xingshi he renwu" ("The situation and duties of birth planning work today (13 December 1979)"), Renkou yanjiu, No. 1 (1980), p. 5.
77. Song Jian, "Population problems from the perspective";
78. Song Jian, Chi-Hsian Tuan and Jing-Yuan Yu. Population Control in China: Theory and Applications (New York: Praeger, 1985), pp. 29-32.
79. Sichuan daxue xuebao, zhexue shchui kexue ban (Journal of Sichuan University, Philosophy and Social Science Edition), No. 1, 1979.
80. Song Jian and Li Guangyuan, "Renkou fazhan wenti do dingliang yanjiu" ("Quantitative research on the problem of population development"), Jingji yanjiu (Economy Research), No. 2, pp. 60-67.
81. Song and Li, "Quantitative research," p. 61. Hua Shiping, Scientism and Humanism: Two Cultures in Post-Mao China (1978-1989) (Albany: State University of New York Press, 1995).
82. Song and Li, "Quantitative research," pp. 60-62.
83. Based on interviews with social scientists in several cities, 1985 and 1986.
84. Liang Zhongtang, "Dui woguo jinhou jishinian renkou fazhan zhanlüe de jidian yijian" ("Several opinions about the strategy for China's population development in the next few decades"), in Lian Zhongtang, Lun woguo renkou fazhan zhanlüe (On China's Population Development Strategy) (Taiyuan: Shanxi People's Press, 1985), pp. 1-16.
85. Interview with population specialist, 19 December 2003, Taiyuan;
86. also Li, "The situation and duties," p. 3.
87. Interview with Chinese population specialist, 12 October 1987, Taiyuan, and discussions with Chinese demographers around the country in 1985 and 1986.
88. Song Jian, Yu Jingyuan and Li Guanyuan, "Guanyu wo guo renkou fazhan wenti de dingliang yanjiu baogao" ("A report on quantitative research on the question of China's population development"), Shijie jigji diaoyan (World Economy, Research), No. 5, 31 January 1980, in Song Jian, Selected Scientific Papers, pp. 540-46.
89. Ibid. pp. 545-46.
90. Ibid. p. 546.
91. Interview, 24 December 2003, Beijing.
92. Song Jian, Selected Scientific Papers, p. 545.
93. David M. Bachman, Chen Yun and the Chinese Political System (Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies. University of California, Berkeley, 1985), p. viii.
94. Interview, 24 December 2003, Beijing.
95. Interview, 21 December 2003, Beijing.
96. Li Xiuzhen, "Bring about a rise in national economic construction, slow the speed of population growth," broadcast by Beijing Domistic Service, 12 February 1980: in FBIS, PRC National Affairs. 21 February 1980, pp. L5-L6.
97. Song Jian et al., "Guanyu renkou fazhan mubiao wenti ("Concerning the question of the target for population development"), Renmin ribao (People's Daily), 7 March 1980, p. 5.
98. Interviews with top population scientists and birth planning officials, 15 and 21 December, 2003, Beijing.
99. Interviews with Chinese population specialists, 16 November 1999 and 21 December 2003, and with key staff member in Leading Group, 24 December 2003, all in Beijing.
100. The following is based on extended discussions with a well-placed birth planning official, 15 December 2003, Beijing.
101. Interviews with Chinese population specialists, 20 December 1986, Beijing; 16 November 1999, Beijing. In June 1980 Chen Yun articulated this same position in a letter to Chen Muhua (interview with key birth commission staff member, 24 December 2003).
102. Interviews with several scholarly and official participants in these meetings, 16 November 1999, 21 and 25 December 2003, all in Beijing.
103. Yang et al., Main Events, p. 78. confirmed by interviews.
104. Interviews with person centrally involved in drafting the Open Letter, 15 and 24 December 2003.
105. "Diwu jie quanguo renmin daibiao dahui, disan ci huiyi zhengfu gongzuo baogao" ("Government Work Report of the Third Session of the Fifth National People's Congress"), in Almanac of China's Population, Editorial Committee (od.), Zhongguo renkou nianjiau, 1985 (Almanac of China's Population, 1985) (Boijing: Zhongguo shchui kexte chubanshe, 1985), p. 26. The ethnic minorities were exempted, at least initially.
106. "Zhonggong zhongyang, guanyu kongzhi woguo renkou zenzhang wenti zhi quanti gongchandang yuan, gongqingtuan yuan de gongkaixin" ("Open letter from the Central Committee to all Communist Party and Communist Youth League members on the question of controlling China's population growth"), in Almanac of China's Population, Editorial Committee (ed.), Renkou nianjian (Population Almanac), pp. 27-29.
107. Interview with a leading birth planning official at the time, 25 December 2003, Beijing.
108. Interview, 25 December 2003, Beijing.
109. Joel E. Cohen, "Review of Population System Conlrol, by Jian Song and Jingyuan Yu (l988)," SIAM Review, Vol. 32, No. 4 (1990), pp. 494-500;
110. Geoffrey McNicoll, "Review of Population Control in China: Theory and Applications," Population and Development Review, Vol. 11, No. 3 (1985), pp.556-57;
111. John Bongaarts, personal communication (12 April 2004),
112. Griffith Feeney, personal communication (15 May 2003),
113. Zeng Yi, personal communication (28 November 2001).
114. On the social suffering, Greenhalgh and Winckler, Governing China's Population, ch. 8.
115. Zhang Guangyu, "China's far below replacement level fertility: a reality or illusion arising from underreporting of births " PhD dissertation, Department of Demography, Australian National University, 2004.
116. For 2000, 1.8 is the official figure, 1.55 the figure estimated by Zhang from Meticulous analysis of all available data sets. On population work today. Greenhalgh and Winckler, Governing China's Population, chs. 5 and 6.
117. Sex ratio data from State Statistical Bureau, at www.chinapop.gov.cn, discussed in Greeahalgh and Winckler. Governing China's Population, ch. 8.
118. On the social security crisis, Richard Jackson and Neil Howe, The Graying of the Middle Kingdom: The Demographics and Economics of Retirement Policy in China (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2004).
119. Edwin A. Winckler, "Chinese reproductive policy at the turn of the millennium: dynamic stability," Population and Development Review, Vol. 28, No. 3 (2002), pp. 379-418. Article 18 of the Law advocates (tichang) that each couple have one child.
120. See "PRC Law on population and Birth Planning," Population and Review, Vol. 28, No. 3 (2002), pp. 579-585.
121. Interview with Chinese population specialist, 22 December 2003, Beijing.