Presidential manipulation of polls and public opinion: The nixon administration and the pollsters

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 110, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 519-538

  Jacobs, Lawrence R ^a   Shapiro, Robert Y ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA   (United States)

^b Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 21844488707     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2151882     Document Type: Article

References (114)

1. George Gallup and Saul Rae, The Pulse of Democracy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1940).
2. Walter Lippman, Public Opinion, (New York: Macmillan, 1922);
3. Walter Lippman, The Phantom Public (New York: Macmillan, 1925);
4. Walter Lippman, Essays in the Public Philosophy (New York: New American Library, 1956);
5. Benjamin Ginsberg, The Captive Public: How Mass Opinion Promotes State Power (New York: Basic Books, 1986);
6. Susan Herbst, Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992).
7. For research on politicians' connection to polls, see the following: Lawrence Jacobs, The Health of Nations: Public Opinion and the Making of American and British Health Policy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993);
8. Lawrence Jacobs, "The Recoil Effect: Public Opinion and Policy Making in the United States and Britain,"Comparative Politics 24 (January 1992): 199-217;
9. Lawrence Jacobs, "Institutions and Culture: Health Policy and Public Opinion in the U. S. and Britain,"World Politics 44 (January 1992): 179-209;
10. Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Y. Shapiro, "Issues, Candidate Image, and Priming: The Use of Private Polls in Kennedy's 1960 Presidential Campaign,"American Political Science Review 88 (September 1994): 527-40;
11. Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Y. Shapiro, "Studying Substantive Democracy: Public Opinion, Institutions, and Policymaking,"PS: Political Science and Politics 27 (March 1994): 9-16;
12. Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Y. Shapiro, The Rise of Presidential Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective,"Public Opinion Quarterly 59 (Summer 1995): 163-195;
13. Robert Hilderbrand, People and Power: Executive Management of Public Opinion in Foreign Affairs, 1987-1921 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1981);
14. Robert Eisinger, "Pollster and Public Relations Advisor: Hadley Cantril and the Birth of Presidential Polling,"(paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, 1994);
15. Robert Eisinger, "Presidential Polling: The 1950s and Beyond" (paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York, 1994);
16. Andrew Katz, "Using Public Opinion in Foreign Policy Formulation: The Nixon Administration and the Pursuit of Peace with Honor in Vietnam (paper presented at the 1995 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago);
17. Michael Wheeler, Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics: The Manipulation of Public Opinion in America (New York: Liveright, 1976).
18. Jacobs and Shapiro, "Rise of Presidential Polling."Louis Harris and Associates is no longer affiliated with Harris himself, who runs a separate operation. The Harris and Gallup firms are organized differently today from the way they were in Nixon's administration.
19. Pollsters include those who produce results for the mass media and those who conduct private research, usually for pay. Unlike private pollsters, who may be hired for decidedly partisan functions, the public pollsters are expected to be politically independent and neutral. Our focus here is on the public pollsters. For a discussion of the president's private polling operations, see the following: Jacobs and Shapiro, "Rise of Presidential Polling" and "Issues";
20. Jacobs, "Recoil Effect,"Health of Nations, A Social Interpretation of Institutional Change: Public Opinion and Policy Making in the Enactment of the British National Health Service Act of 1946 and the American Medicare Act of 1965 (Ph. D. Dissertation, Columbia University, 1990). For additional discussion of Nixon's ties to public pollsters,
21. see Wheeler, Lies; and Katz, "Using Public Opinion."Additional archival records on Nixon's relations with the public pollsters have not been released because of legal action by the former president's estate .
22. H. R. Haldeman, The Haldeman Diaries: Inside the Nixon White House, CD-Rom (Santa Monica, CA: Sony, 1992), 1/19/71 entry.
23. Interview of Harry Dent by Lawrence Jacobs, 9/9/94.
24. Haldeman Diaries, 1/17/71. Another illustration of Nixon alerting his aides to "watch for distortion of poll data" is contained in Haldeman Diaries, 8/20/72.
25. Haldeman Diaries, 1/19/71 entry. Nixon's use of his private polls to monitor and attempt to influence the public pollsters are contained in the following: HRH, (Haldeman) Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Nixon, 9/22/69; PPF, Box 3, Memo to Haldeman from Nixon, 1/14/71. All the archival material cited in this article come from the Nixon Presidential Materials Project, which is administered by the National Archives and Records Administration and is located in College Park, Maryland. See Jacobs and Shapiro, "Rise of Presidential Polling" for discussion of Nixon's private polling operation.
26. Colson, Box 99, Telephone Memo to Colson from Haldeman, 6/7/72.
27. Interview with Dwight Chapin by Lawrence Jacobs, 9/9/94.
28. Interview with George Gallup, Jr. by Lawrence Jacobs, 9/20/94.
29. CF PR 15, Box 53, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 5/4/70.
30. Jacobs and Shapiro, "Issues";
31. Jacobs, Health of Nations, "Recoil Effect,"and Social Interpretation.
32. Dent interview.
33. CF PR15, Box 53, Memo to Dent from Peter Flanigan, 12/19/69; HRH, Box 135, Memo to President from Dent, 1/28/70.
34. CF PR15, Box 53, Memo to Colson from Haldeman, 6/22/70; CF PR15, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 6/22/70.
35. HRH, Box 350, Memo to Haldeman from Klein, 12/4/70.
36. Haldeman Diaries, 8/8/69 and 10/2/69.
37. PPF, Box 4, Memo to John Ehrlichman from Nixon, 12/28/72.
38. CF PR15, Box 53, Memo to Dent from Flanigan, 12/19/69.
39. HRH, Box 334, Memo to Lawrence Higby from Gordon C. Strachan, 6/28/71.
40. HRH, Box 355, "A Study of the Issues of Concern to the American People,"conducted by Louis Harris and Associates, 10/71.
41. CF PR15, Memo to Haldeman from Strachan, 4/11/72.
42. HRH, Box 355, Memo to Ehrlichman from Haldeman relaying president's suggestions, 8/121 71; Colson, Box 69, Letter to Harper from Harris, 7/29/71; HRH, Box 355, Memo to Haldeman from Cliff Miller and Strachan, 8/2/71; HRH, Box 355, Memo to Haldeman from Miller and Strachan, 8/ 27/71.
43. Interview with Harris by Lawrence Jacobs, 9/23/94 and 9/6/95; statement to Lawrence Jacobs by Louis Harris, 9/21/94 (subsequently referred to as Harris statement).
44. Interview with John Davies by Lawrence Jacobs, 9/21/94.
45. Colson, Box 69, Telephone Call Recommendation,"handwritten note that "call made at 10: 27 AM today, July 31"; Memo from Colson to George Bell, 6/23/71 in Bruce Oudes, ed., From the President (New York: Harper & Row, 1989).
46. HRH, Box 335, Memo to Haig from Colson, 8/4/71.
47. Harris interview, 9/23/94 and 9/6/95. Six months prior to Colson's memo about Harris's trip to the Soviet Union, Haig reported to Colson that he and Kissinger met with Harris and requested that he "pass on to us any intelligence he picked up on the Soviets."Haig wrote that Harris left the meeting "confident he was performing an important mission."Reflecting back on his relations with Harris, Haig suggested in a recent interview that Harris had an exaggerated sense of his journey's importance. Interview with Alexander Haig by Lawrence Jacobs, 9/26/94; Oudes, From the President; Colson, Box 69, Letter to Colson from Harris, 9/28/71.
48. Dent interview.
49. Evidence that Nixon regularly received advance information about Gallup and Harris's plans are contained in the following entries in Haldeinan Diaries: 10/31/69; 11/22/69; 4/6/70; 7/23/70; 1/17/ 71; 2/26/71.
50. HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 11/10/69. A similar episode is reported in the following: HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 12/5/69. Attorney General John Mitchell branded the demonstration as not peaceful in the New York Times report and Gallup asked a moratorium question. "250, 000 Protestors Stage Peaceful Rally in Washington; Militants Stir Clashes Later,"New York Times, 17 November 1969;
51. George Gallup, The Gallup Poll, Volume 3: 1959-71 (New York: Random House, 1972). 1224-1225.
52. Evidence that the White House received polls before publication are contained in the following: HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 9/26/69; HRH, Box 134, List forthcoming Gallup results, 10/2/69; HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapiii, 12/9/69; HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 1/14/70; HRH, Box 350, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 3/17/70; HRH, Box 350, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 4/28/70; CF PR15, Box 53, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 5/4/70; CF PR 15, Box 53, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 7/22/70; HRH, Box 135, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 8/19/70; Chapin, Box 22, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 11/23/70; HRH, Box 350, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 4/9/71; HRH, Box 410, Memo to Haldeman from Colson, 9/3/71; HRH, Box 411, 53, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 9/6/71; HRH, Box410, Memo from Colson, 9/30/71; HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 10/10/69; Colson, Box 69, Memo to Haldeman from Colson, 2/17/72; HRH, Box 135, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 8/4/ 71. Additional evidence is contained in the Nixon archives in the following boxes: HRH, Box 134; and Chapin, Box 22. Finally, the following memo discussing the entire operation for processing advance polling information: HRH, Box 334, Memo to Lawrence Higby, Bruce Kehrlie, Pat McKee, Kathy Bachman, Lynrae McClintock, and Diana Gwin, from Strachan, 6/14/71.
53. PR 15, Box 53, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 10/8/69.
54. Davies interview; Gallup interview.
55. Haldeman Diaries, Appointment Log indicates that Harris met with the President on 10/13/71 and 7/31/72.
56. Haldeman Diaries, 9/22/72. Evidence of Harris's contacts with the White House during the 1972 campaign are contained in the following: Colson, Box 102, Transcription of telephone conversation between Colson and Robert Teeter, 10/6/72 and 10/19/72; Nixon personally met with Harris on July 31, 1972 (Haldeman Diaries, Appointment Log).
57. Colson, Box 1, Memo to Colson from Harris, 3/2/72.
58. Jacobs, "Recoil Effect" and Social Interpretation;
59. Bruce E. Altschuler, "Lyndon Johnson and the Public Polls,"Public Opinion Quarterly 50 (Fall 1986): 285-299;
60. Wheeler, Lies; Eisinger, "Pollster" and "Presidential Polling. "
61. Chapin, Box 22, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 11/23/70; Haldeman Diaries, 6/3/70.
62. Haldeman Diaries, 7/24/70 and 7/28/70.
63. Interviews with Dent and Chapin.
64. Haldeman Diaries, 4/2/71 entry.
65. HRH, Box 403, Memo to Haldeman from Nixon, 12/30/69; Haldeman Diaries, 2/7/73.
66. HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 11/18/69.
67. Colson, Box 69, Memo to Haldeman from Colson, 9/24/71.
68. Harris statement.
69. Chapin, Box 22, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin re "Gallup Telephone Poll-The President's Speech,"11/3/69. White House preparations to plant questions with Gallup are discussed in the following memo: HRH, Box 125, Memo from Butterfield to Harry Dent, Peter Flanigan, Jim Keogh, Henry Kissinger, Herb Klein, Jeb Magruder, Lyn Nofziger, William Safire, Charles West, Jim Allison, and Dick Garbett, regarding "November 3rd Game Plan,"10/28/69.
70. Chapin interview.
71. The Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Richard Nixon 1969 (Washington, DC: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1971), 913.
72. The White House suggested five questions to Gallup. Gallup's press release and compendium do not provide exact question wordings. Neither the Gallup Organization, the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, nor the National Opinion Research Center had copies of the Gallup Survey questionnaire. Because the original Gallup questionnaire is unavailable, we compared the White House proposals with the words used by Gallup in its press release. Our assumption was that Gallup's press release would-as is the normal practice-closely follow the actual question wordings in writing up its results. Here are three comparisons of White House suggestions with Gallup's write-ups: The White House proposed that Gallup ask: "In light of the President's speech, do you think moratoriums and public demonstrations are helpful or harmful to the attainment of peace?" Gallup reported the following based on its study: "By a 6-to-1 ratio the persons contacted agree with President Nixon that moratoriums and public demonstrations are harmful to the attainment of peace in Vietnam . . . ."In addition, the White House suggested that Gallup ask the question, "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his program for troop withdrawal as set forth in his speech?" Gallup reported, "Eight in every 10 (77 percent) of those contacted express satisfaction with President Nixon's program for troop withdrawal, 13 percent express dissatisfaction, while another 10 percent are undecided."The White House also suggested asking, "Do you think his proposals will bring about a settlement of the Vietnam War - or not?" Gallup reported that "About half the people interviewed (49 percent) think President Nixon's proposals are likely to bring about a settlement of the war, but 25 percent think they are not likely to do so, and another 26 percent are undecided."This comparison suggests that the subjects and words of the White House questions appear in the Gallup description of its results. (We have italicized the sections where the White House suggestions overlap with Gallup's report. ) Finally, the Gallup questions were not asked during the preceding or following year.
73. Gallup, The Gallup Poll, 1959-1971, 2222;
74. Gallup Special Release, Report No. 54, December 1969.
75. Chapin reported to Haldeman shortly after Gallup's surveys that reporters from the St. Louis Post Dispatch and Newsday queried Gallup over whether the pollster ran White House suggestions in formulating its question. According to Davies, Davies "responded that they are in touch quite frequently with the White House on a general basis; however, the White House did not write the questions."HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 11/10/69.
76. HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 11/18/69.
77. Gallup interview; Gallup, Gallup Poll, 1959-1971, 2231-2. In March 1970, Chapin reports that a trial heat poll involving Nixon, Humphrey and Wallace was "done at our suggestion."HRH, Box 350, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 3/17/70.
78. Gallup and Davies interviews.
79. HRH, Box 410, Memo to Haldeman from Colson, 1/11/72.
80. Louis Harris, The Harris Survey Yearbook of Public Opinion, 1972: A Compendium of Current American Attitudes (New York: Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., 1976), 81-83.
81. The Harris Survey, For Release, Monday, 17 January 1972, "Muskie Pulls Up Even with Nixon,"by Louis Harris, obtained from the National Opinion Research Center, Paul Sheatsley Library, University of Chicago.
82. Colson, Box 69, Memo to Haldeman from Colson regarding "Attached Harris Poll,"9/24/71; Colson, Box 69, "Harris Public Opinion Analysis, For Release: September 30th, 1971,"
83. by Louis Harris; Harris interview and statement; Colson, Box 69, "Conversation with Lou Harris, September 27, 1971"; Chicago Tribune, "Presidential Sweepstake to Be Battle for Plurality,"9/30/71.
84. HRH, Box 410, Memo to Haldeman from Colson, 1/11/72.
85. The Harris Survey, For Release, 27 January 1972, "India-Pakistan Hurts Nixon,"by Louis Harris, obtained from the National Opinion Research Center, Paul Sheatsley Library, University of Chicago; The Harris Survey, For Release, 24 January 1972, "Loyalties Divided on India-Pakistan Conflict,"by Louis Harris, Archived in the National Opinion Research Center; Chicago Tribune "Nixon Loses Points in Indo-Pakistan Affair,"24 January 1972; Washington Post, "Nixon Gets Negative Marks on India-Pakistan Crisis Role,"24 January 1972.
86. HRH, Box 410, Memo to Haldeman from Higby, 11/17/71. 64 HRH, Box 410, Memo to Haldeman from Colson, 1/11/72.
87. Interviews with Harris, 9/23/94 and 9/6/95.
88. Louis Harris, The Harris Survey Yearbook of Public Opinion, 1971: A Compendium of Current American Attitudes (New York: Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., 1976), 3.
89. Chicago Tribune, "Nixon Gains Public Trust in Foreign Policy Moves,"29 November 1971;
90. Washington Post, "Nixon's Rating Now is 53% Favorable,"29 November 1971.
91. CF PR15, Box 53, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 7/22/70.
92. Gallup Opinion Index, August 1970, Report No. 62, Princeton, NJ; New York Times, "Nixon Popularity Increases in Poll,"30 July 1970.
93. American Association for Public Opinion Research, "Code of Professional Ethics and Practices,"Public Opinion Quarterly 24 (Fall 1960): 529-30;
94. American Association for Public Opinion Research, "Code of Professional Ethics and Practices" in Paul Sheatsley and Warren Mitofsky, eds., A Meeting Place: The History of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (U. S. : American Association for Public Opinion Research, 1992). Evidence that opinion researchers operated under clear standards during Nixon's presidency is discussed in Albert Gollin, "AAPOR and the Media" in ibid.
95. George Gallup, The Sophisticated Poll Watcher's Guide (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Opinion Press, 1972), 188-89.
96. HRH, Box 134, Memo to Haldeman from Chapin, 9/25/69.
97. Davies interview.
98. Harris statement, 9/21/94. 73 Haig interview.
99. CF PR 15, Memo to Ken Cole from W. Richard Howard, 2/22/73 (marked "Administratively Confidential/ Eyes Only").
100. Colson reported to Haldeman in April 1971 that Harris would not publish results that indicated that Nixon's popularity rating had sunk to 46-53 split. But, both Washington Post and Chicago Tribune (5/13/71) published Harris's columns with the 46-53 split. It was only after, however, new data became available that Harris ran the 46-53 split; the new set of data showed a 47-50 split, which was heralded as an improvement. HRH, Box 410, Memo to Strachan from Higby, 4/26/71 (Haldeman's handwritten notes attached). Washington Post, "President's Job Rating Rises,"13 May 1971; Chicago Tribune, "President Gain in Popularity,"13 May, 1971.
101. Albert Gollin, "Exploiting the Liaison Between Polling and the Press,"Public Opinion Quarterly 44 (Winter 1980): 445-461;
102. Thomas Mann and Gary Orren, eds., Media Polls in American Politics (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1992).
103. For an excellent review of the holocaust controversy, see Tom W. Smith, "Review: The Holocaust Denial Controversy,"Public Opinion Quarterly 59 (Summer 1995): 269-95.
104. Gallup interview; Harris statement.
105. Interview with Stanley Greenberg by Lawrence Jacobs, 26 January 1995.
106. Jacobs and Shapiro, "Rise of Presidential Polling. "
107. Gallup interview.
108. Chapin interview.
109. Jacobs, "Recoil Effect" and Social Interpretation.
110. Jacobs and Shapiro, "Issues";
111. Jacobs, "Institutions and Culture" and Health of Nations.
112. V. O. Key, Public Opinion and American Democracy (New York: Knopf, 1961);
113. Benjamin I. Page and Robert Y. Shapiro, The Rationale Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992);
114. John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).