Misperceptions, the Media, and the Iraq War

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 118, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 569-598

  Kull, Steven ^a   Ramsay, Clay ^b   Lewis, Evan ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^b PIPA   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 2142847327     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/j.1538-165X.2003.tb00406.x     Document Type: Review

References (34)

1. Asked in a Chicago Council on Foreign Relations poll in June 2002 about their position on invading Iraq, 65 percent said the United States "should only invade Iraq with UN approval and the support of its allies"; 20 percent said "the US should invade Iraq even if we have to go it alone"; and 13 percent said "the US should not invade Iraq."
2. In August 2002, 55 percent thought Iraq "currently has weapons of mass destruction," and 39 percent thought Iraq is trying to develop these weapons but does not currently have them (CNN/USA Today). On al Qaeda, Newsweek asked in September 2002, "From what you've seen or heard in the news ... do you believe that Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq is harboring al Qaeda terrorists and helping them to develop chemical weapons, or not?" Seventy-five percent said yes. Yet, in a 24-25 February 2003 CBS News poll, only 31 percent agreed that "Iraq presents such a clear danger to American interests that the United States needs to act now"; 64 percent agreed that "the US needs to wait for approval of the United Nations before taking action against Iraq," and 62 percent said that "the United States should wait and give the United Nations inspectors more time."
3. From May through November 2003, the Program on International Policy Attitudes/Knowledge Networks (PIPA/KN) has found a declining majority of 68 percent to 57 percent saying "the US made the right decision ... in going to war with Iraq."
4. For more information about this methodology, see the Appendix or go to www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.
5. Herein the term "misperceptions" is not used to refer to controversial beliefs about what U.S. intelligence has been able to infer, such as the belief that Saddam Hussein was directly involved in September 11. The term is limited to noncontroversial perceptions such as whether actual weapons or actual evidence have in fact been found. The misperception related to world public opinion is established based on polling data discussed later.
6. Gallup International conducted two international polls (in January and April-May 2003) and Pew Research Center conducted one (in April-May 2003), which included poll questions that directly measured support or opposition to the Iraq war. In the three polls taken together, fifty-six countries were surveyed. The January Gallup International poll asked, "Are you in favor of military action against Iraq: under no circumstances; only if sanctioned by the United Nations; unilaterally by America and its allies?" Of the thirty-eight countries polled (including twenty European countries), not a single one showed majority support for unilateral action, and in nearly every case the percentage was very low. When asked, "If military action goes ahead against Iraq, do you think [survey country] should or should not support this action?" in thirty-four of the thirty-eight countries polled (seventeen out of twenty in Europe), a majority opposed having their country support this action. In April-May, the Pew Global Attitudes Survey asked respondents in eighteen countries how they felt about their country's decision to participate or not participate in "us[ing] military force against Iraq." Among the thirteen countries that had not participated, in every case, a large to overwhelming majority approved of the decision. For the three countries that contributed troops, in the United Kingdom and Australia, a majority approved; in Spain, a majority was opposed. For the two countries that had allowed the United States to use bases, in Kuwait, the majority approved; in Turkey, the majority was opposed. For full results, see www.gallup-international.com and www.people-press.org.
7. I b i d.
8. The Pew Global Attitudes survey in summer 2002 and May 2003 asked in seven countries with primarily Muslim populations (Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, and Morocco, plus the Palestinian Authority): "Which of the following phrases comes closer to your view? I favor the US-led efforts to fight terrorism, or I oppose the US-led efforts to fight terrorism." In six of the eight cases, strong majorities ranging from 56 to 85 percent in summer 2002, and rising to 67 to 97 percent in May 2003, said they opposed "US-led efforts to fight terrorism." In only one case - Kuwait in May 2003 - did a majority say they favored U.S. efforts. In the case of Pakistan, a plurality of 45 percent opposed U.S. efforts in the summer of 2003, rising to 74 percent in May 2003. In May 2003, respondents were asked: "Do you think US policies in the Middle East make the region more stable or less stable?" In six of the eight cases, majorities said that U.S. policies in the Middle East make the region less stable. These majorities ranged from 56 percent in Lebanon to 91 percent in Jordan. In Pakistan, 43 percent said U.S. policies make the Middle East less stable, but another 43 percent said U.S. policies either "made no difference" (12 percent) or that they did not know (31 percent). In Kuwait, a 48 percent plurality said U.S. policies made the Middle East more stable.
9. Numbers for those naming a network as their primary news source were as follows: Fox, 520; CBS, 258; CNN, 466; ABC, 315; NBC, 420; NPR/PBS, 91. All findings in this section were statistically significant at the p<0.05 level, except where noted.
10. PIPA compared two statistical measures, the Wald statistic and the difference in the -2 log likelihood if the factor is removed from the analysis.
11. President George W. Bush, "Presidential Letter," 18 March 2003, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/03/20030319-1.html.
12. Secretary Colin L. Powell, "Remarks to the United Nations," New York City, 5 February 2003, available at http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/ 2003/17300.htm, 12 October 2003.
13. Dana Priest and Glenn Kessler, "Iraq, 9/11 Still Linked By Cheney," Washington Post, 29 September 2003.
14. Vice President Richard Cheney, "Meet the Press," 14 September 2003.
15. Full transcript: "Bush Defends Foreign Policy," Washington Post, online edition, 28 October 2003, available at http://www.washingtonpost. com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId= A29127- 2003Oct28¬Found=true.
16. Mike Allen, "Bush: 'We Found' Banned Weapons; President Cites Trailers in Iraq as Proof," Washington Post, 31 May 2001.
17. David Folkenflik, "Fox News defends its patriotic coverage: Channel's objectivity is questioned," Baltimore Sun, 2 April 2003.
18. Dan Rather, during the 4 April 2003 Larry King Show. Quoted in Steve Rendell and Tara Broughel, "Amplifying Officials, Squelching Dissent: FAIR study finds democracy poorly served by war coverage," Extra! (May/June 2003), Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, available at www.fair.org/extra/0305/ warstudy.html.
19. Dan Rather, during the 4 April 2003 Larry King Show. Quoted in Steve Rendell and Tara Broughel, "Amplifying Officials, Squelching Dissent: FAIR study finds democracy poorly served by war coverage," Extra! (May/June 2003), Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, available at www.fair.org/extra/0305/ warstudy.html.
20. Steve Rendell and Tara Broughel, "Amplifying Officials, Squelching Dissent."
21. Allen, "Bush: 'We Found' Banned Weapons," 31 May 2001.
22. See footnote 19. Forthcoming studies by Susan Moeller are likely to offer a much more comprehensive view of these dynamics than is available at the time of writing. A report on media coverage of WMD under the aegis of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at the University of Maryland is in preparation for release in early 2004. See also Susan Moeller, "A Moral Imagination: The Media's Response to the War on Terrorism" in Stuart Allen and Barbie Zelizer, eds., Reporting War (London: Routledge, forthcoming). On the issue of embedded reporters, see a content analysis by the Project for Excellence in Journalism, "Embedded Reporters: What Are Americans Getting?" at www.journalism.org/resources/research/reports/war/embed/ default.asp.
23. See footnote 19. Forthcoming studies by Susan Moeller are likely to offer a much more comprehensive view of these dynamics than is available at the time of writing. A report on media coverage of WMD under the aegis of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at the University of Maryland is in preparation for release in early 2004. See also Susan Moeller, "A Moral Imagination: The Media's Response to the War on Terrorism" in Stuart Allen and Barbie Zelizer, eds., Reporting War (London: Routledge, forthcoming). On the issue of embedded reporters, see a content analysis by the Project for Excellence in Journalism, "Embedded Reporters: What Are Americans Getting?" at www.journalism.org/resources/research/reports/war/embed/ default.asp.
24. See footnote 6.
25. Evidence from the 1990s is reviewed in Steven Kuli and I.M. Destler, Misreading the Public: The Myth of a New Isolationism (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1999), 42-57, 67-80, 94-110. The public's views at the outset of the current Iraq experience are documented and analyzed in the report "Iraq Debate 2002," available at www.americans-world.org.
26. Evidence from the 1990s is reviewed in Steven Kuli and I.M. Destler, Misreading the Public: The Myth of a New Isolationism (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1999), 42-57, 67-80, 94-110. The public's views at the outset of the current Iraq experience are documented and analyzed in the report "Iraq Debate 2002," available at www.americans-world.org.
27. In January 2003, PIPA/KN asked a series of general questions about whether a right existed "to use military force to prevent a country that does not have nuclear weapons from acquiring them." Only 46 percent thought that, without UN approval, a country had the right to use military force on another country in this situation; virtually the same number (48 percent) thought the United States had this right. Seventy-six percent thought the UN Security Council had the right to authorize military force for this purpose. PIPA/Knowledge Networks Poll, "Americans on Iraq and the UN Inspections I," 27 January 2003, available at www.pipa.org/online_reports.html.
28. For early polls, see footnote 1. Just days before the war in a CBS News poll conducted 4-5 March, only 36 percent agreed that "Iraq presents such a clear danger to American interests that the United States needs to act now," while 59 percent agreed that "The US needs to wait for approval of the United Nations before taking any action against Iraq."
29. In December 2002, January 2003, and February, PIPA/KN presented respondents the following scenario: "Imagine that President Bush moves that the UN approve an invasion of Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein, but most of the other members of the UN Security Council want to continue to use threats and diplomatic pressure to get Iraq to comply, and the motion does not pass. President Bush then decides that the US will undertake an invasion of Iraq, even if the US has to do so on its own. Just based on this information, what do you think your attitude would be about this decision?" Respondents were offered the option of agreeing with the President's choice, disagreeing, or choosing "I would not agree with this decision, but I would still support the President," In all cases only a minority of 33 to 43 percent said they would agree, but another 25 to 27 percent said they would support but not agree, thus creating a majority ready to support the President should he decide to proceed.
30. On the rally effect, see Richard A. Brody, "Crisis, War and Public Opinion: The Media and Public Support for the President" in W. Lance Bennett and David L. Paletz, Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994); R.A. Brody and C.R. Shapiro, "A Reconsideration of the Rally Phenomenon in Public Opinion" in S. Long, ed., Political Behavior Annual, vol. 2 (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1989); and John E. Mueller, War, Presidents and Public Opinion (New York: Wiley, 1973): 208-213.
31. On the rally effect, see Richard A. Brody, "Crisis, War and Public Opinion: The Media and Public Support for the President" in W. Lance Bennett and David L. Paletz, Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994); R.A. Brody and C.R. Shapiro, "A Reconsideration of the Rally Phenomenon in Public Opinion" in S. Long, ed., Political Behavior Annual, vol. 2 (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1989); and John E. Mueller, War, Presidents and Public Opinion (New York: Wiley, 1973): 208-213.
32. On the rally effect, see Richard A. Brody, "Crisis, War and Public Opinion: The Media and Public Support for the President" in W. Lance Bennett and David L. Paletz, Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994); R.A. Brody and C.R. Shapiro, "A Reconsideration of the Rally Phenomenon in Public Opinion" in S. Long, ed., Political Behavior Annual, vol. 2 (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1989); and John E. Mueller, War, Presidents and Public Opinion (New York: Wiley, 1973): 208-213.
33. Seven times in March and April 2003, Pew Research Center for the People and the Press asked, "Do you think the US made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force against Iraq?" Those who said it was the right decision were asked whether they supported going to war because they think it was "the best thing for the US to do" or whether they were not sure if it was the best thing to do but they "support Bush's decision, because he is the president." During the war, 69 to 74 percent said the United States made the right decision, of which 48 to 54 percent thought it was the best thing to do, while 15 to 22 percent were unsure of this but supported the President. Each month from May through September, PIPA/KN repeated this question. Over this period, 45 to 53 percent thought that the war was the best thing to do, and 14 to 18 percent were unsure but supported the President.
34. See Steven Kuli, "Americans Reevaluate Going to War with Iraq," PIPA/Knowledge Networks Poll, 13 November 2003, available at www.pipa.org.