An evaluation of population projections by age

Demography

Volumn 40, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 741-757

  Smith, Stanley K ^a   Tayman, Jeff ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

^b San Diego Association of Governments   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; ARTICLE; CHILD; EMPIRICAL RESEARCH; EVALUATION; FORECASTING; HUMAN; INFANT; INFORMATION PROCESSING; METHODOLOGY; MIDDLE AGED; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PRESCHOOL CHILD; UNITED STATES;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; DATA COLLECTION; EMPIRICAL RESEARCH; FORECASTING; HUMANS; INFANT; MIDDLE AGED; POPULATION DYNAMICS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 2142818497     PISSN: 00703370     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/1515206     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Alho, J.M. 1990. "Stochastic Methods in Population Forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 6:521-30.
2. Alho, J.M. and B.D. Spencer. 1997. "The Practical Specification of the Expected Error of Population Forecasts." Journal of Official Statistics 13:203-25.
3. Bongaarts, J. and R.A. Bulatao, Eds. 2000. Beyond Six Billion. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
4. Campbell, P. 1991. "Evaluating the Age Distribution in State Population Projections." Federal Forecasters Conference: Papers and Proceedings. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
5. Campbell, P. 1994. "Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to 2020." U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1111. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
6. Day, J.C. 1992. "Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1992 to 2050." U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1092. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
7. Dunton, N. 1994. "Planning for Children's Residential Care." Pp. 327-42 in Demographics: A Casebook for Business and Government, edited by H.J. Kintner, T.W. Merrick, P.A. Morrison, and P.R. Voss. Boulder: Westview Press.
8. Fishlow, H. 1994. "Enrollment Projection in a Multicampus University System." Pp. 298-306 in Demographics: A Casebook for Business and Government, edited by H.J. Kintner, T.W. Merrick, P.A. Morrison, and P.R. Voss. Boulder: Westview Press.
9. Hamilton, C.H. and J. Perry. 1962. "A Short Method for Projecting Population by Age From One Decennial Census to Another." Social Forces 41:163-70.
10. Isserman, A. 1993. "The Right People, the Right Rates: Making Population Estimates and Forecasts With an Interregional Cohort-Component Model." Journal of the American Planning Association 59:45-64.
11. Keilman, N. 1990. Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting. Amsterdam: Swets and Zeitlinger.
12. Keilman, N. 1998. "How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections?" Population and Development Review 24(Suppl.):15-41.
13. Keyfitz, N. 1981. "The Limits of Population Forecasting." Population and Development Review 7:579-93.
14. Kulkarni, M. and L.G. Pol. 1994. "Migration Expectancy Revisited: Results for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s." Population Research and Policy Review 13:195-202.
15. Lapkoff, S. 1993. "Projecting Births in a California School District." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati, April 1-3.
16. Lee, R.D. 1992. "Stochastic Demographic Forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 8:315-27.
17. Lee, R.D. and S. Tuljapurkar. 1994. "Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low." Journal of the American Statistical Association 89:1175-89.
18. Lee, R.D. and S. Tuljapurkar. 1997. "Death and Taxes: Longer Life, Consumption, and Social Security." Demography 34:67-81.
19. Long, J.F. 1995. "Complexity, Accuracy, and Utility of Official Population Projections." Mathematical Population Studies 5:203-16.
20. Long, J.F. and D.B. McMillen. 1987. "A Survey of Census Bureau Population Projection Methods." Climatic Change 11:141-77.
21. Lutz, W., W.C. Sanderson, and S. Scherbov. 1998. "Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections." Population and Development Review 24(Suppl.):139-55.
22. Nakosteen, R.A. 1989. "Detailed Population Projections for Small Areas: The Massachusetts Experience." Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 23:125-38.
23. Plane, D. 1993. "Demographic Influences on Migration." Regional Studies 27:375-83.
24. Rives, B. 1994. "Strategic Financial Planning for Hospitals: Demographic Considerations." Pp. 251-64 in Demographics: A Casebook for Business and Government, edited by H.J. Kintner, T.W. Merrick, P.A. Morrison, and P.R. Voss. Boulder: Westview Press.
25. Robinson, J.G., K. West, and A. Adlakha. 2002. "Coverage of the Population in Census 2000: Results From Demographic Analysis." Population Research and Policy Review 21:19-38.
26. Rogers, A. 1995. "Population Forecasting: Do Simple Models Outperform Complex Models?" Mathematical Population Studies 5:187-202.
27. Smith, S.K. 1986. "Accounting for Migration in Cohort-Component Projections of State and Local Populations. Demography 23:127-35.
28. Smith, S.K. and B. Ahmed. 1986. "Population Estimates and Projections by Age and Sex: Florida and Its Counties, 1985-2000." Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 77. Gainesville: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida.
29. Smith, S.K. and B. Ahmed. 1990. "A Demographic Analysis of the Population Growth of States, 1950-1980." Journal of Regional Science 30:209-27.
30. Smith, S.K. and M. Shahidullah. 1995. "An Evaluation of Population Projection Errors for Census Tracts." Journal of the American Statistical Association 90:64-71.
31. Smith, S.K., M. Shahidullah, and R. Bayya. 1992. "Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and Its Counties, 1991-2010." Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 101-102. Gainesville: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida.
32. Smith, S.K. and T. Sincich. 1988. "Stability Over Time in the Distribution of Population Forecast Errors." Demography 25:461-74.
33. Smith, S.K. and T. Sincich. 1992. "Evaluating the Forecast Accuracy and Bias of Alternative Population Projections for States." International Journal of Forecasting 8:495-508.
34. Smith, S.K., J. Tayman, and D.A. Swanson. 2001. State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. New York: Kluwer Academic.
35. Stoto, M. 1983. "The Accuracy of Population Projections." Journal of the American Statistical Association 78:13-20.
36. Tayman, J. and D.A. Swanson. 1996. "On the Utility of Population Forecasts." Demography 33:523-28.
37. Tayman, J. and D.A. Swanson. 1999. "On the Validity of MAPE as a Measure of Population Forecast Accuracy." Population Research and Policy Review 18:299-322.
38. U.S. Census Bureau. 1953. "Illustrative Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1955 to 1975." Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 78. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
39. U.S. Census Bureau. 1962a. "Interim Revised Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1965 to 1970." Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 241. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
40. U.S. Census Bureau. 1962b. "Interim Revised Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1975 to 1980." Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 251. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
41. U.S. Census Bureau. 1972. "Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1972 to 2020." Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 493. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
42. U.S. Census Bureau. 1979. "Illustrative Projections of State Populations by Age, Race, and Sex: 1975 to 2000." Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 796. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
43. U.S. Census Bureau. 1983. "Provisional Projections of the Population of States, by Age and Sex: 1980 to 2000." Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 937. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
44. U.S. Census Bureau. 2003. "Technical Assessment of A.C.E. Revision II." Available on-line at http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/ACETechAssess.pdf
45. White, H. 1954. "Empirical Study of the Accuracy of Selected Methods of Projecting State Populations." Journal of the American Statistical Association 49:480-98.