East Asia and the Constrainment of China

International Security

Volumn 20, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 107-133

  Segal, Gerald ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 21344457848     PISSN: 01622889     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2539044     Document Type: Article

References (117)

1. For example see Kishore Mahbubani, The Pacific Impulse, Survival, Vol. 37, No. 1 (Spring 1995);
2. James Richardson, East Asian Stability, Tlie National Interest, No. 38 (Winter 1994-95);
3. Morton Abramowitz, Pacific Century: Myth or Reality, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 15, No. 3 (December 1993). Some of the engagement school is struggling with ways to add a dose of realism. See the notion of conditional engagement and virtual alliances as discussed in a study program on China currently underway in the Council on Foreign Relations. I am grateful to Jim Shinn of the Council for an opportunity to see the work in progress.
4. Paul Dibb, Towards a New Balance of Power in Asia, Adelphi Paper No. 295 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies [IISS]/Oxford University Press, May 1995).
5. See related arguments in Richard K. Betts, Wealth, Power and Instability: East Asia and the United States after the Cold War, International Security, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Winter 1993-94);
6. Aaron Friedberg, Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multi-polar Asia, ibid.; and Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, Rethinking East Asian Security, Survival, Vol. 36 No. 2 (Summer 1994).
7. These issues have become a trendy and sometimes vibrant focus of debate. See, e.g., Shannon Selin, Asia-Pacific Anns Buildup, Working Paper No. 6 (Vancouver: University of British Colombia, Institute of International Relations (1994);
8. Andrew Mack and Pauline Kerr, The Evolving Security Discussions in the Asia-Pacific, Tlie Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 1 (1995);
9. and Jonathan Pollack, Sources of Instability and Conflict in Northeast Asia, Arms Control Today, November 1994.
10. Gerald Segal, China Changes Shape, Adelphi Paper No. 287 (London: IlSS/Oxford University Press, March 1994). On the optimist side see William Overholt, Tlie Rise of China (New York: Norton, 1993);
11. and most recently, Jim Rohwer, Asia Rising (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1995). For a range of academic views see Thomas Robinson and David Shambaugh, eds., Chinese Foreign Policy (Oxford: The Clarendon Press, 1994).
12. Figure 1 and Table 1 were produced by Digby Waller, the Defence Economist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
13. Perhaps it is precisely because the European theater seems so susceptible to complex balances, and East Asia seems so unsuited, that the European balances have received so much analytical attention, and East Asian balances are virtually virgin analytical territory. Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994);
14. Richard Rosecrance, A New Concert of Powers, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2 (Spring 1992), pp. 64-82; Coral Bell, The Post-Soviet World (Canberra: Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, 1992); John Mearsheimer, Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War, International Security, Vol. 15, No. 1 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-56.
15. See also William Pfaff, The Wrath of Nations (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1993).
16. Gerald Segal, Rethinking the Pacific (Oxford: The Clarendon Press, 1990).
17. The process and problems of Chinese decentralization are discussed in David Goodman and Gerald Segal, eds., China Deconstructs (London: Routledge, 1994).
18. Paul Smith, The Strategic Implications of Chinese Emigration, Survival, Vol. 36, No. 2 (Summer 1994).
19. Michael Bradshaw, The Economic Effects of Soviet Dissolution (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1993); and Bradshaw, Siberia in a Time of Change, No. 2171 (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 1992).
20. See also Andre Voskressenski, Current Concepts of Sino-Russian Relations and Frontier Problems in Russia and China, Central Asian Survey, Vol. 13, No. 3 (1994); and Gerald Segal, The Soviet Union and the Pacific (London: Unwin Hyrnan for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1990).
21. Tim Huxley, Insecurity in the ASEAN Region (London: Royal United Services Institute, 1993);
22. and Amitav Acharya, A Neiv Regional Order in South-East Asia, Adelphi Paper No. 279 (London: IBS/Oxford University Press, May 1993). See also Michael Leifer, ASEAN and the Security of Southeast Asia (London: Routledge, 1989).
23. Michael Leifer, Indonesia's Foreign Policy (London: Alien and Unwin for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1983).
24. Kenichiro Sasae, Rethinking Japan-U.S. Relations, Adelphi Paper No. 292 (London: IlSS/Oxford University Press, December 1994).
25. Goodman and Segal, China Deconstructs, on different regions.
26. David Dewitt, Common, Comprehensive and Cooperative Security/' The Pacific Revieiv, Vol. 7, No. 1 (1994);
27. and Paul Evans, Building Security, The Pacific Review, Vol. 7 No. 2 (1994). 15. ASEAN and Regional Security, Strategic Survey 1994-1995 (London: USS/Oxford University Press, 1995).
28. For some indication of Chinese thinking, unofficially, see the Kyodo report of a high-level Chinese policy document reportedly opposed to regional security schemes. January 29, 1995, in British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), Summary of World Broadcasts (SWB), Far East (FE/) 2216/G1. See also Huang Fan-zhang, East Asian Economics: Development, Cooperation Prospects, and China's Strategy in Barbara Bundy, et al., eds., Ttie Future of the Pacific Rim (London: Praeger, 1994).
29. A good Western analysis appears in Bonnie Glaser and Banning Garrett, Multilateral Security in the Asia-Pacific Region and its Impact on China's Interests: Views from Beijing, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 16 No. 1 (June 1994).
30. The author is also grateful for insights from Susan Shirk based on her track two dialogue with the Chinese on these issues. See also Denny Roy, Hegemon on the Horizon? China's Threat to East Asian Security, International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Summer 1994);
31. John Carver, China's Push Through the South China Sea, TJie China Quarterly, December 1992;
32. Harry Harding, A Chinese Colossus, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 18, No. 3 (September 1995).
33. See a wide-ranging discussion in the UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee in Relations Between the UK and China in the Period up to and Beyond 1997 (London: HMSO, March 1994). See also Percy Cradock, Experiences of China (London: John Murray, 1994);
34. and Gerald Segal, A Clearer Fate for Hong Kong, The World Today, February 1994.
35. Lo Chi-kin, China's Policy Tournas Territorial Disputes (London: Routledge, 1989);
36. Mark Valencia, . China and the South China Sea, Adelphi Paper No. 297 (London: IBS/Oxford University Press, July 1993);
37. Michael Gallagher, China's Illusory Threat to the South China Sea, International Security; Vol. 19, No. 1 (Summer 1994).
38. Valencia, China and the South China Sea; and Mark Valencia with Jon M. Van Dyke and Noel Ludwig, The Solution for the Spratly Islands Ought to Look Like This, International Herald Tribune, October 10,1995.
39. In June 1995, in the midst of a new period of anxiety hi Southeast Asia about the South China Sea, Chinese archaeologists claimed to have found porcelain fragments there dating back to the Song Dynasty (960-1279). Xinhua (China's News Agency) on June 13, 1994, in SWB FE/2332/G7.
40. Michael Swaine quoted in Far Eastern Economic Review, April 13, 1995, p. 25. For a classic example of the Chinese line of argument see the interview with a Chinese State océanographie official in Wen Wei Po, April 17, 1995, in SWB FE/2284/G1-3. See also Ta Kung Pao, February 26, 1995, in SWB FE/2241/G/1-2.
41. For a careful analysis of the legal issues, see Daniel Dzurek, China Occupies Mischief Reef in Latest Spratly Gambit, International Boundary Research Unit Boundary and Security Bulletin (London), April 1995, pp. 65-71.
42. This has been a steady refrain. See Xinhua, May 11, 1995, in SWB FE/2301/G/1.
43. Michael Leifer, Chinese Economic Reform and Security Policy: The South China Sea Connection, Survival, Vol. 37 No. 2 (Summer 1995);
44. and Esmond Smith, China's Aspirations in the Spratly Islands, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 16, No. 3 (December 1994).
45. Tlie Straits Times (Singapore), July 31,1992.
46. Jane's Defence Weekly, May 20,1995, p. 3; Flight, May 24,1995, p. 24.
47. Michael Richardson, Strategic Signpost for Asia in Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter Annual Reference Edition, Vol. 21, No. 6-7 (December 1994-January 1995), pp. 49-51.
48. See also Ho Limpeng, The Spratly Islands: Asian Flashpoint, Navy International, September 1994, pp. 257-259. On oil finds see International Herald Tribune, May 25,1995.
49. Xinhua, October 17, 1994, in SWB FE/2130/G/2; and South China Morning Post International Weekly, August 27,1994, p. 6. See also Mark Valencia, Dancing with the Chinese Dragon in Trends, August 27, 1994; and Far Eastern Economic Review, October 13, 1994, p. 29.
50. Reports in 1994 suggested that China became a net oil importer in November 1993. It turned out that these initial assessments were premature. In the first quarter of 1995 Chinese oil exports were 4m tonnes, down from 4.2m in the same period in 1994, but still higher than China's import total of 2.45m tonnes which was up from 2.43m. See Reuters, May 8,1995. Estimates suggest China will need to import 100m tonnes by 2010.
51. See Valencia, China and the South China Sea. On China's food dependence see a report by The Worldwatch Institute cited in Malthus Goes East, The Economist, August 12, 1995. In that context, it is significant that whereas the Spratly islands have proven to be rich in marine resources, oil has not yet been found in major quantities. The Natuna gas field in the south of the region is the world's largest. See GMA-7 Television (Philippines), June 18, 1995, in SWB FE/2335/B/4; and World Resources 1994-95 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994).
52. Janes Defence Weekly, March 18, 1995, p. 3.
53. More generally see Jun Zhan, China Goes to the Blue Water, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 17, No. 3 (September 1994).
54. The pattern of Chinese action in such circumstances is discussed in Gerald Segal, Defending China (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1985).
55. This is a difficult subject and I am grateful for the views of Paul Godwin on the matter. For some additional insights see Knang Chiao Cliing (Hong Kong) No. 271 (April 16, 1995) in.SVVB FE/2301/G/1-3. See also the view of Admiral Lanxade who was in China in the relevant months, in Cols Bleus (Paris), May 6, 1995.
56. Aptly named by the British Admiralty, Mischief Reef is more than 1,100 km from Hainan, and less than 240km from the coast of the southern Philippine island of Pauline.
57. Those who seek to minimize the importance of the incident on Mischief Reef note that China did not use force in the sense of the 1988 clash with Vietnam where troops were killed. But China clearly did use force to eject the Philippine fishermen and then placed naval forces on the Reef to deter counter-attack.
58. China News Digest, April 26, 1995; and Xinhua on April 20, 1995, in SWB FE/2284/G/1; and Kiiang Chiao CMng (Hong Kong) No. 271 (April 16,1995), in SWB FE/2301/G/1-3.
59. Far Eastern Economic Review, April 6,1995.
60. International Herald Tribune, April 21, 1995.
61. Philippines GMA-7 Television, April 10, 1995, in SWB FE/2276/B1. See also Far Eastern Economic Review, April 20,1995, p. 12.
62. Harry Harding, Asia Policy to the Brink in Foreign Policy, No. 96 (Fall 1994).
63. Defense News, January 30,1995, pp. 1, 26.
64. International Herald Tribune, December 15, 1994.
65. Associated Press, April 2,1995; International Herald Tribune, June 23,1995; Far Eastern Economic Review, September 28, 1995, p. 32.
66. International Herald Tribune, March 8, 1995;
67. Richard C. Macke, A Commander in Chief Looks at East Asia, Joint Forces Quarterly, Spring 1995, esp. pp. 12-13.
68. Reuters, May 3,1995, referring to Dibb, Toward a New Balance of Power in Asia.
69. U.S. Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific (Washington, D.C.: Office of International Security Affairs, Department of Defense, February 1994). See also William Perry speech to China's National Defense University in Beijing on October 18,1994, in Defense News, Vol. 9, No. 81 (1994).
70. Reuters, May 10,1995; and Korea Times, May 15,1995.
71. These points are in part based on discussions at a closed seminar at the UK Foreign Office in March 1995. See also A Question of Balance, The Economist, April 22,1995.
72. UPI, May l, 1995. See various reports on the visit in SWB FE/2295/G/1-6.
73. Agence France Presse from Tokyo, March 8,1995;
74. and International Herald Tribune, April 4,1995
75. . 50. Reuters, June 30, 1995;
76. South China Morning Post Weekly, July 8, 1995, p. 9.
77. China News Digest, August 30,1995.
78. For evidence on these issues in the public domain see Xinhtta, July 3, 1995, in SWB FE/2347/G/1; Kyodo, August 30, 1995, in SWB FE/2396/E/1;
79. Liu Jiangyong, Distorting History will Misguide Japan, Contemporary International Relations, Vol. 5, No. 9 (September 1995); Kyodo on pro-Taiwan forces in Daily Yoiniuri, September 22,1995; and Ryuichi Otsuka on the test ban in the Daily Yomiiiri, September 21,1995.
80. Gareth Evans was in Malaysia at the time. See Malaysian Television on February 17,1995, in SWB FE/2232/B/2.
81. Dibb, Towards a New Balance of Power.
82. Gareth Evans on March 20,1995, reported by Reuters from Sydney on March 20,1995. On the defense White Paper, see Far Eastern Economic Review, December 15, 1994, pp. 1&-20.
83. Various reports in mid-April 1995 from Taiwanese media in SWB FE/2276/F1; and Far Eastern Economic Review, April 13,1995, p. 29.
84. In 1994, some 21,000 mainland fishermen sailed on Taiwanese fishing boats. International Herald Tribune, April 5,1995; The Economist, April 29,1995. On fishing boats, see China News Digest, August 30, 1995.
85. Tensions Across the Taiwan Strait, China News Analysis, No. 1543 (September 15, 1995).
86. For the formal Chinese statement, and evidence of its linkage of the ARF to the poor state of relations with the United States, see Xinhua, August 1,1995, in SWB FE/2371/G/5; and Wen Wei Po on August 1 in SWB FE/2372/G/1.
87. China published a White Paper on arms control in November 1995 that suggests it does not feel it needs to be any more transparent, only that it must pretend to be so. See the text in Xinhua on November 16,1995, in SWB FE/2463/S1/1-10.
88. Kyodo, August 1,1995, in SWB FE/2372/S1/1 for the ARF statement. Also Financial Times, July 31, 1995;
89. Business Times (Singapore), August 2, 1995;
90. The Economist, August 5, 1995;
91. International Herald Tribune, August 4;
92. and ibid., October 7,1995. For further details on the ARF see PacNet, No. 29 (August 18, 1995);
93. PacNet, No. 31 (September 1, 1995).
94. Philippines GMA-7 Television on April 24,1995, in SWB FE/2287/B/1.
95. Philippines GMA-7 Television on April 11,1995, in SWB FE/2277/B/3.
96. UPI, April 19,1995.
97. Reuters, May 10, 1995;
98. Xinhtia, May 16, 1995, in SWB FE/2306/G1.
99. Ta Kung Pao, May 17, 1995, in SWB FE/2310/G/1-2.
100. Xinhua on August 11,1995,
101. in SWB FE/2381/G/9; GMA-7 Television (Philippines) on August 9 and Xinhtia on August 9, both in SWB FE/2379/B/3.
102. See also Financial Times, August 11,1995.
103. Financial Times, February 10,1993.
104. For example as reported by Reuters on January 6, 1995.
105. Dow Jones News Service, May 15, 1995; Reuters, May 14,1995.
106. Far Eastern Economic Review, August 11,1994, p. 18.
107. Far Eastern Economic Review, April 27,1995, p. 28.
108. Suara Karya newspaper (in Indonesian) on April 11,1995,
109. in SWB FE/2277/B2-3. See also tough comments by the armed forces commander cited by Reuters on May 31, 1995.
110. Antara (Jakarta) newsagency, on July 21, 1995, in SWB FE/2363/B/1-2.
111. Michael Swaine, China: Domestic Change and Foreign Policy (Santa Monica: RAND, 1995);
112. Susan Shirk, The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993);
113. Richard Yang and Gerald Segal, eds., Chinese Economic Reform and Defence Policy (London: Routledge, forthcoming 1996).
114. Geremie Barme, To Screw Foreigners is Patriotic, China Journal, No. 34 (July 1995);
115. and Alien Whiting, Chinese Nationalism and Foreign Policy After Deng, China Quarterly, Summer 1995.
116. For an earlier version of the argument see Michel Oksenberg, China's Confident Nationalism, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 65, No. 3 (Winter 1986-87).
117. It is worth noting that in 1995 China shocked those supporting the notion of a Mekong river development zone, and those who thought China was learning to play by the rules of economic interdependence, by suddenly and sharply reducing flows of water to the delta. The Economist, November 18,1995.