메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 108, Issue 3-4, 2005, Pages 187-198

Monte Carlo simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control: I. General concepts and description of the model

Author keywords

Classical swine fever; Control; Simulation model; Virus spread

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; MONTE CARLO METHOD; NONHUMAN; PESTIVIRUS; SPERM; STOCHASTIC MODEL; SWINE DISEASE; VALIDATION PROCESS; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

EID: 20444420161     PISSN: 03781135     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.vetmic.2005.04.009     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (38)

References (59)
  • 3
    • 0035405952 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Direct and indirect contact rates among beef, dairy, goat, sheep, and swine herds in three California counties, with reference to control of potential foot-and-mouth disease transmission
    • T.W. Bates, M.C. Thurmond, and T.E. Carpenter Direct and indirect contact rates among beef, dairy, goat, sheep, and swine herds in three California counties, with reference to control of potential foot-and-mouth disease transmission Am. J. Vet. Res. 62 2001 1121 1129
    • (2001) Am. J. Vet. Res. , vol.62 , pp. 1121-1129
    • Bates, T.W.1    Thurmond, M.C.2    Carpenter, T.E.3
  • 4
    • 0033396716 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in the Netherlands - A survival analysis
    • H.J. Benard, K.D.C. Stärk, R.S. Morris, D.U. Pfeiffer, and H. Moser The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands - a survival analysis Prev. Vet. Med. 42 1999 235 248
    • (1999) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.42 , pp. 235-248
    • Benard, H.J.1    Stärk, K.D.C.2    Morris, R.S.3    Pfeiffer, D.U.4    Moser, H.5
  • 5
    • 0001088742 scopus 로고
    • A dynamic model for cost-benefit analyses of foot-and-mouth disease control strategies
    • P.B.M. Berentsen, A.A. Dijkhuizen, and A.J. Oskam A dynamic model for cost-benefit analyses of foot-and-mouth disease control strategies Prev. Vet. Med. 12 1992 229 243
    • (1992) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.12 , pp. 229-243
    • Berentsen, P.B.M.1    Dijkhuizen, A.A.2    Oskam, A.J.3
  • 6
    • 0030787457 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Computer simulation to support policy making in the control of pseudorabies
    • J. Buijtels, R. Huirne, A. Dijkhuizen, M. de Jong, and A. van Nes Computer simulation to support policy making in the control of pseudorabies Vet. Microbiol. 55 1997 181 185
    • (1997) Vet. Microbiol. , vol.55 , pp. 181-185
    • Buijtels, J.1    Huirne, R.2    Dijkhuizen, A.3    De Jong, M.4    Van Nes, A.5
  • 7
    • 0026509877 scopus 로고
    • A review on classical swine fever infections in pigs: Epizootiology, clinical disease and pathology
    • J. Dahle, and B. Liess A review on classical swine fever infections in pigs: epizootiology, clinical disease and pathology Comp. Immunol. Microbiol. Infect. Dis. 15 1992 203 211
    • (1992) Comp. Immunol. Microbiol. Infect. Dis. , vol.15 , pp. 203-211
    • Dahle, J.1    Liess, B.2
  • 8
    • 0000527465 scopus 로고
    • Comparative study with cloned classical swine fever virus strains ALFORT and GLENTORF: Clinical, pathological, virological and serological findings in weaner pigs
    • J. Dahle, and B. Liess Comparative study with cloned classical swine fever virus strains ALFORT and GLENTORF: clinical, pathological, virological and serological findings in weaner pigs Wien. Tierärztl. Mschr. 82 1995 232 238
    • (1995) Wien. Tierärztl. Mschr. , vol.82 , pp. 232-238
    • Dahle, J.1    Liess, B.2
  • 10
    • 0002237460 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Persistent classical swine fever virus infection in pigs infected after weaning with a virus isolated during the 1995 epidemic in Germany: Clinical, virological, serological and pathological findings
    • K.R. Depner, A. Rodriguez, J. Pohlenz, and B. Liess Persistent classical swine fever virus infection in pigs infected after weaning with a virus isolated during the 1995 epidemic in Germany: clinical, virological, serological and pathological findings Eur. J. Vet. Pathol. 2 1996 61 66
    • (1996) Eur. J. Vet. Pathol. , vol.2 , pp. 61-66
    • Depner, K.R.1    Rodriguez, A.2    Pohlenz, J.3    Liess, B.4
  • 11
    • 0034707414 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Airborne transmission of classical swine fever virus under experimental conditions
    • J. Dewulf, H. Laevens, F. Koenen, K. Mintiens, and A. de Kruif Airborne transmission of classical swine fever virus under experimental conditions Vet. Rec. 147 2000 735 738
    • (2000) Vet. Rec. , vol.147 , pp. 735-738
    • Dewulf, J.1    Laevens, H.2    Koenen, F.3    Mintiens, K.4    De Kruif, A.5
  • 12
    • 0036875727 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An experimental infection to investigate the indirect transmission of classical swine fever by excretions of infected pigs
    • J. Dewulf, H. Laevens, F. Koenen, K. Mintiens, and A. de Kruif An experimental infection to investigate the indirect transmission of classical swine fever by excretions of infected pigs J. Vet. Med. B Infect. Dis. Vet. Public Health 49 2002 452 456
    • (2002) J. Vet. Med. B Infect. Dis. Vet. Public Health , vol.49 , pp. 452-456
    • Dewulf, J.1    Laevens, H.2    Koenen, F.3    Mintiens, K.4    De Kruif, A.5
  • 13
    • 0034687365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An extended state-transition model for foot-and-mouth disease epidemics in France
    • B. Durand, and O. Mahul An extended state-transition model for foot-and-mouth disease epidemics in France Prev. Vet. Med. 47 2000 121 139
    • (2000) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.47 , pp. 121-139
    • Durand, B.1    Mahul, O.2
  • 14
    • 0037195505 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How best to geo-reference farms? a case study from Cornwall
    • P.A. Durr, and A.E.A. Froggatt How best to geo-reference farms? A case study from Cornwall Engl. Prev. Vet. Med. 56 2002 51 62
    • (2002) Engl. Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.56 , pp. 51-62
    • Durr, P.A.1    Froggatt, A.E.A.2
  • 15
  • 17
    • 0035968704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Factors associated with the introduction of classical swine fever virus into pig herds in the central area of the 1997/98 epidemic in the Netherlands
    • A.R.W. Elbers, J.A. Stegeman, and M.C.M. de Jong Factors associated with the introduction of classical swine fever virus into pig herds in the central area of the 1997/98 epidemic in The Netherlands Vet. Rec. 149 2001 377 382
    • (2001) Vet. Rec. , vol.149 , pp. 377-382
    • Elbers, A.R.W.1    Stegeman, J.A.2    De Jong, M.C.M.3
  • 19
    • 0035843902 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of spread and impact of interventions
    • published online (10.1126/science.1061020).
    • Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., Anderson, R.M., 2001. The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science 292, published online (10.1126/science.1061020).
    • (2001) Science , vol.292
    • Ferguson, N.M.1    Donnelly, C.A.2    Anderson, R.M.3
  • 21
    • 0034303104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission of classical swine fever virus by artificial insemination during the 1997-1998 epidemic in the Netherlands: A descriptive epidemiological study
    • M. Hennecken, J.A. Stegeman, A.R.W. Elbers, A. van Nes, J.A. Smak, and J.H.M. Verheijden Transmission of classical swine fever virus by artificial insemination during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands: a descriptive epidemiological study Vet. Q. 22 2002 228 233
    • (2002) Vet. Q. , vol.22 , pp. 228-233
    • Hennecken, M.1    Stegeman, J.A.2    Elbers, A.R.W.3    Van Nes, A.4    Smak, J.A.5    Verheijden, J.H.M.6
  • 22
    • 20444418753 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating Parameters for Stochastic Epidemics
    • November 2002
    • Höhle, M., Jørgensen, E., 2002. Estimating Parameters for Stochastic Epidemics. Dina Research Report No. 102, November 2002, http://www.dina.dk/~hoehle/pubs/dina102.pdf.
    • (2002) Dina Research Report No. 102
    • Höhle, M.1    Jørgensen, E.2
  • 24
    • 0033378373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in the Netherlands. I. Description of simulation model
    • A.W. Jalvingh, M. Nielen, H. Maurice, A.J. Stegeman, A.R.W. Elbers, and A.A. Dijkhuizen Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. I. Description of simulation model Prev. Vet. Med. 42 1999 271 295
    • (1999) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.42 , pp. 271-295
    • Jalvingh, A.W.1    Nielen, M.2    Maurice, H.3    Stegeman, A.J.4    Elbers, A.R.W.5    Dijkhuizen, A.A.6
  • 25
    • 20444406930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of SIR epidemic models in slaughter pig units using Monte Carlo simulation
    • Lleida, Spain, 18-20 September
    • Jørgensen, E., Søllested, T.A., Toft, N., 2000. Evaluation of SIR epidemic models in slaughter pig units using Monte Carlo simulation. In: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Pig Herd Management Modelisation, Lleida, Spain, 18-20 September, ftp://ftp.dina.kvl.dk/pub/Staff/Anders.R. Kristensen/congress/Jorgensen.pdf.
    • (2000) Proceedings of the International Symposium on Pig Herd Management Modelisation
    • Jørgensen, E.1    Søllested, T.A.2    Toft, N.3
  • 26
    • 20444419096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Schwarzwild - Ein natürliches Reservoir für Infektionserreger und Ansteckungsquelle für Hausschweine?
    • V. Kaden, and T. Müller Schwarzwild - ein natürliches Reservoir für Infektionserreger und Ansteckungsquelle für Hausschweine? ForschungsReport Verbraucherschutz, Ernährung, Landwirtschaft 1 2001 24 28 (in German)
    • (2001) ForschungsReport Verbraucherschutz, Ernährung, Landwirtschaft , vol.1 , pp. 24-28
    • Kaden, V.1    Müller, T.2
  • 27
    • 20444365560 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemiology of classical swine fever and models to analyse virus spread: A review
    • S. Karsten, and J. Krieter Epidemiology of classical swine fever and models to analyse virus spread: A review Dtsch. Tierärztl. Wschr. 112 2005 180 188
    • (2005) Dtsch. Tierärztl. Wschr. , vol.112 , pp. 180-188
    • Karsten, S.1    Krieter, J.2
  • 28
    • 20444385486 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control. II. Validation of the model
    • in press.
    • Karsten, S., Rave, G., Krieter, J. Monte Carlo simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control. II. Validation of the model. Vet. Microbiol., in press.
    • Vet. Microbiol.
    • Karsten, S.1    Rave, G.2    Krieter, J.3
  • 29
    • 20444395154 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control. III. Evaluation of control measures and contact tracing
    • submitted for publication.
    • Karsten, S., Rave, G., Krieter, J. Monte Carlo simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control. III. Evaluation of control measures and contact tracing. Vet. Microbiol., submitted for publication.
    • Vet. Microbiol.
    • Karsten, S.1    Rave, G.2    Krieter, J.3
  • 30
    • 0030581543 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of classical swine fever in an area of high pig density
    • F. Koenen, G. van Caenegem, J.P. Vermeersch, J. Vandenheede, and H. Deluyker Epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of classical swine fever in an area of high pig density Vet. Rec. 139 1996 367 371
    • (1996) Vet. Rec. , vol.139 , pp. 367-371
    • Koenen, F.1    Van Caenegem, G.2    Vermeersch, J.P.3    Vandenheede, J.4    Deluyker, H.5
  • 33
    • 0032044463 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An experimental infection with classical swine fever virus in weaner pigs. I. Transmission of the virus, course of the disease, and antibody response
    • H. Laevens, F. Koenen, H. Deluyker, D. Berkvens, and A. de Kruif An experimental infection with classical swine fever virus in weaner pigs. I. Transmission of the virus, course of the disease, and antibody response Vet. Q. 20 1998 41 45
    • (1998) Vet. Q. , vol.20 , pp. 41-45
    • Laevens, H.1    Koenen, F.2    Deluyker, H.3    Berkvens, D.4    De Kruif, A.5
  • 34
    • 0033612781 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Experimental infection of slaughter pigs with classical swine fever virus: Transmission of the virus, course of the disease and antibody response
    • H. Laevens, F. Koenen, H. Deluyker, and A. de Kruif Experimental infection of slaughter pigs with classical swine fever virus: transmission of the virus, course of the disease and antibody response Vet. Rec. 145 1999 243 248
    • (1999) Vet. Rec. , vol.145 , pp. 243-248
    • Laevens, H.1    Koenen, F.2    Deluyker, H.3    De Kruif, A.4
  • 35
    • 20444391079 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identifying contiguous farms with point features. Abstract of a poster presented, Lancaster, 10-14 September.
    • Mackereth, G.F., 2001. Identifying contiguous farms with point features. Abstract of a poster presented at the GisVet Conference, Lancaster, 10-14 September.
    • (2001) GisVet Conference
    • Mackereth, G.F.1
  • 36
    • 0035895639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and stochastic simulation to compare two emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine in the 1997/1998 Dutch classical swine fever epidemic
    • M.-J.J. Mangen, A.W. Jalvingh, M. Nielen, M.C.M. Mourits, D. Klinkenberg, and A.A. Dijkhuizen Spatial and stochastic simulation to compare two emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine in the 1997/1998 Dutch classical swine fever epidemic Prev. Vet. Med. 48 2001 177 200
    • (2001) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.48 , pp. 177-200
    • Mangen, M.-J.J.1    Jalvingh, A.W.2    Nielen, M.3    Mourits, M.C.M.4    Klinkenberg, D.5    Dijkhuizen, A.A.6
  • 37
    • 0037132444 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands
    • M.-J.J. Mangen, M. Nielen, and A.M. Burrell Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands Prev. Vet. Med. 56 2002 141 163
    • (2002) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.56 , pp. 141-163
    • Mangen, M.-J.J.1    Nielen, M.2    Burrell, A.M.3
  • 38
    • 0033375441 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model to estimate the financial consequences of classical swine fever outbreaks: Principles and outcomes
    • M.P.M. Meuwissen, S.H. Horst, R.B.M. Huirne, and A.A. Dijkhuizen A model to estimate the financial consequences of classical swine fever outbreaks: principles and outcomes Prev. Vet. Med. 42 1999 249 270
    • (1999) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.42 , pp. 249-270
    • Meuwissen, M.P.M.1    Horst, S.H.2    Huirne, R.B.M.3    Dijkhuizen, A.A.4
  • 39
    • 0034643377 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Introduction to classical swine fever: Virus, disease and control policy
    • V. Moennig Introduction to classical swine fever: virus, disease and control policy Vet. Microbiol. 73 2000 93 102
    • (2000) Vet. Microbiol. , vol.73 , pp. 93-102
    • Moennig, V.1
  • 42
    • 4444220846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numerical Algorithms Group Ltd. Oxford, UK
    • NAG The NAG C Library Manual, Mark 7 2002 Numerical Algorithms Group Ltd. Oxford, UK
    • (2002) The NAG C Library Manual, Mark 7
    • Nag1
  • 44
    • 0033391624 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997/98 classical swine fever epidemic in the Netherlands. II. Comparision of strategies
    • M. Nielen, A.W. Jalvingh, M.P.M. Meuwissen, S.H. Horst, and A.A. Dijkhuizen Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997/98 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. II. Comparision of strategies Prev. Vet. Med. 42 1999 297 317
    • (1999) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.42 , pp. 297-317
    • Nielen, M.1    Jalvingh, A.W.2    Meuwissen, M.P.M.3    Horst, S.H.4    Dijkhuizen, A.A.5
  • 45
    • 0346900691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relative importance of risk factors concerning the introduction and spread of classical swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease in Germany
    • B. Nissen, and J. Krieter Relative importance of risk factors concerning the introduction and spread of classical swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease in Germany Arch. Anim. Breed. 46 2003 535 545
    • (2003) Arch. Anim. Breed. , vol.46 , pp. 535-545
    • Nissen, B.1    Krieter, J.2
  • 46
    • 1242270178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • OIE, 2003. Handistatus II, http://www.oie.int/hs2/report.asp?lang=en.
    • (2003) Handistatus II
  • 47
    • 0039016919 scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of optimal size of restriction zones in disease control with particular reference to classical swine fever
    • Reading, 29-31 March
    • M. Roberts Evaluation of optimal size of restriction zones in disease control with particular reference to classical swine fever Proceedings of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine Reading, 29-31 March 1995
    • (1995) Proceedings of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
    • Roberts, M.1
  • 48
    • 0001304312 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulation studies on the epidemiological impact of national identification and recording systems on the control of classical swine fever in Belgium
    • H.W. Saatkamp, A.A. Dijkhuizen, R. Geers, R.B.M. Huirne, J.P.T.M. Noordhuizen, and V. Goedseels Simulation studies on the epidemiological impact of national identification and recording systems on the control of classical swine fever in Belgium Prev. Vet. Med. 26 1996 119 132
    • (1996) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.26 , pp. 119-132
    • Saatkamp, H.W.1    Dijkhuizen, A.A.2    Geers, R.3    Huirne, R.B.M.4    Noordhuizen, J.P.T.M.5    Goedseels, V.6
  • 49
    • 0029262866 scopus 로고
    • The distribution of incubation periods of infectious disease
    • P.E. Sartwell The distribution of incubation periods of infectious disease Am. J. Epidemiol. 141 1995 386 394
    • (1995) Am. J. Epidemiol. , vol.141 , pp. 386-394
    • Sartwell, P.E.1
  • 52
    • 0037473397 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling alternative mitigation strategies for a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States
    • M.A. Schoenbaum, and W.T. Disney Modeling alternative mitigation strategies for a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States Prev. Vet. Med. 58 2003 25 52
    • (2003) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.58 , pp. 25-52
    • Schoenbaum, M.A.1    Disney, W.T.2
  • 53
    • 0033629679 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Within-farm spread of classical swine fever virus - A blueprint for a stochastic simulation model
    • K.D.C. Stärk, D.U. Pfeiffer, and R.S. Morris Within-farm spread of classical swine fever virus - a blueprint for a stochastic simulation model Vet. Q. 22 2000 36 43
    • (2000) Vet. Q. , vol.22 , pp. 36-43
    • Stärk, K.D.C.1    Pfeiffer, D.U.2    Morris, R.S.3
  • 54
  • 55
    • 0033380518 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission of classical swine fever virus within herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in the Netherlands
    • A. Stegeman, A.R.W. Elbers, A. Bouma, H. de Smit, and M.C.M. de Jong Transmission of classical swine fever virus within herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands Prev. Vet. Med. 42 1999 201 218
    • (1999) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.42 , pp. 201-218
    • Stegeman, A.1    Elbers, A.R.W.2    Bouma, A.3    De Smit, H.4    De Jong, M.C.M.5
  • 56
    • 0036231432 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rate of inter-herd transmission of classical swine fever virus by different types of contact during the 1997-98 epidemic in the Netherlands
    • J.A. Stegeman, A.R.W. Elbers, A. Bouma, and M.C.M. de Jong Rate of inter-herd transmission of classical swine fever virus by different types of contact during the 1997-98 epidemic in The Netherlands Epidemiol. Infect. 128 2002 285 291
    • (2002) Epidemiol. Infect. , vol.128 , pp. 285-291
    • Stegeman, J.A.1    Elbers, A.R.W.2    Bouma, A.3    De Jong, M.C.M.4
  • 57
    • 0037414065 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Experimental infection with the Paderborn isolate of classical swine fever virus in 10-week-old pigs: Determination of viral replication kinetics by quantitative RT-PCR, virus isolation and antigen ELISA
    • Å. Uttenthal, T. Storgaard, M.B. Oleksiewicz, and K. de Stricker Experimental infection with the Paderborn isolate of classical swine fever virus in 10-week-old pigs: determination of viral replication kinetics by quantitative RT-PCR, virus isolation and antigen ELISA Vet. Microbiol. 92 2003 197 212
    • (2003) Vet. Microbiol. , vol.92 , pp. 197-212
    • Uttenthal, Å.1    Storgaard, T.2    Oleksiewicz, M.B.3    De Stricker, K.4
  • 58
    • 0032160820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An epidemiological and economic simulation model to evaluate the spread and control of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in the Netherlands
    • A. Vonk Noordegraaf, J.A. Buijtels, A.A. Dijkhuizen, P. Franken, J.A. Stegeman, and J. Verhoeff An epidemiological and economic simulation model to evaluate the spread and control of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in The Netherlands Prev. Vet. Med. 36 1998 219 238
    • (1998) Prev. Vet. Med. , vol.36 , pp. 219-238
    • Vonk Noordegraaf, A.1    Buijtels, J.A.2    Dijkhuizen, A.A.3    Franken, P.4    Stegeman, J.A.5    Verhoeff, J.6
  • 59


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.