메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 27, Issue 2, 2005, Pages 179-207

How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth

Author keywords

Bayesian analysis; Multiple time series

Indexed keywords


EID: 19944378143     PISSN: 01640704     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2003.11.018     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (23)

References (35)
  • 1
    • 49149136203 scopus 로고
    • A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle
    • S. Beveridge C.R. Nelson A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle Journal of Monetary Economics 7 1981 151-174
    • (1981) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.7 , pp. 151-174
    • Beveridge, S.1    Nelson, C.R.2
  • 2
    • 0000193853 scopus 로고
    • On Gibbs sampling for state space models
    • C.K. Carter P. Kohn On Gibbs sampling for state space models Biometrika 81 1994 541-553
    • (1994) Biometrika , vol.81 , pp. 541-553
    • Carter, C.K.1    Kohn, P.2
  • 3
    • 84954974222 scopus 로고
    • Permanent and transitory components of GNP and stock prices
    • J.H. Cochrane Permanent and transitory components of GNP and stock prices Quarterly Journal of Economics 109 1994 241-265
    • (1994) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.109 , pp. 241-265
    • Cochrane, J.H.1
  • 4
  • 5
    • 0009401749 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evolving post World War II US inflation dynamics
    • T. Cogley T.J. Sargent Evolving post World War II US inflation dynamics NBER Macroeconomics Annual 16 2001 331-373
    • (2001) NBER Macroeconomics Annual , vol.16 , pp. 331-373
    • Cogley, T.1    Sargent, T.J.2
  • 6
    • 4544226175 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the postwar US
    • Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, New York University
    • Cogley, T., Sargent, T.J., 2002. Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the postwar US. Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, New York University.
    • (2002)
    • Cogley, T.1    Sargent, T.J.2
  • 7
    • 0041872532 scopus 로고
    • Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle
    • G. Evans L. Reichlin Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle Journal of Monetary Economics 33 1994 233-254
    • (1994) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.33 , pp. 233-254
    • Evans, G.1    Reichlin, L.2
  • 8
    • 0003960691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Has the 'new economy' rendered the productivity slowdown obsolete?
    • Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, Northwestern University
    • Gordon, R.J., 1999. Has the 'new economy' rendered the productivity slowdown obsolete? Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, Northwestern University.
    • (1999)
    • Gordon, R.J.1
  • 9
    • 0002427465 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does the 'new economy' measure up to the great innovations of the past?
    • R.J. Gordon Does the 'new economy' measure up to the great innovations of the past? Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 2000 49-74
    • (2000) Journal of Economic Perspectives , vol.14 , pp. 49-74
    • Gordon, R.J.1
  • 10
    • 19944413045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The productivity growth spurt in the United States
    • Remarks before the International Bond Congress, London, UK, February 21
    • Gramlich, E.M., 2001. The productivity growth spurt in the United States. Remarks before the International Bond Congress, London, UK, February 21.
    • (2001)
    • Gramlich, E.M.1
  • 11
    • 0000153011 scopus 로고
    • Hybrid corn: An exploration in the economics of technological change
    • Z. Griliches Hybrid corn: An exploration in the economics of technological change Econometrica 25 1957 501-522
    • (1957) Econometrica , vol.25 , pp. 501-522
    • Griliches, Z.1
  • 12
    • 0001342006 scopus 로고
    • A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle
    • J.D. Hamilton A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle Econometrica 57 1989 357-384
    • (1989) Econometrica , vol.57 , pp. 357-384
    • Hamilton, J.D.1
  • 13
    • 38249032512 scopus 로고
    • Continuous time autoregressive models with common stochastic trends
    • A.C. Harvey J.H. Stock Continuous time autoregressive models with common stochastic trends Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12 1988 365-384
    • (1988) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , vol.12 , pp. 365-384
    • Harvey, A.C.1    Stock, J.H.2
  • 14
  • 16
    • 0000271911 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Information technology and growth
    • Papers and Proceedings
    • Jorgenson, D.W., Stiroh, K.J., 1999. Information technology and growth. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 89, 109-115.
    • (1999) American Economic Review , vol.89 , pp. 109-115
    • Jorgenson, D.W.1    Stiroh, K.J.2
  • 17
  • 18
    • 0038815112 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
    • Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 159
    • Kahn, J.A., Rich, R., 2003. Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 159.
    • (2003)
    • Kahn, J.A.1    Rich, R.2
  • 19
    • 0039447737 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Has the US economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach based on a Markov switching model of the business cycle
    • C.J. Kim C.R. Nelson Has the US economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach based on a Markov switching model of the business cycle Review of Economics and Statistics 81 1999 608-661
    • (1999) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.81 , pp. 608-661
    • Kim, C.J.1    Nelson, C.R.2
  • 20
    • 0742271636 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The less volatile US economy: A Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations
    • C.J. Kim C.R. Nelson J. Piger The less volatile US economy: A Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22 2004 80-93
    • (2004) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.22 , pp. 80-93
    • Kim, C.J.1    Nelson, C.R.2    Piger, J.3
  • 21
    • 0003628048 scopus 로고
    • Production, growth, and business cycles: Technical appendix
    • Unpublished manuscript, University of Rochester
    • King, R.G., Plosser, C.I., Rebelo, S.T., 1987. Production, growth, and business cycles: Technical appendix. Unpublished manuscript, University of Rochester.
    • (1987)
    • King, R.G.1    Plosser, C.I.2    Rebelo, S.T.3
  • 22
    • 0003858105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning about a shift in trend output: Implications for monetary policy
    • Unpublished manuscript, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    • Lansing, K.J., 1999. Learning about a shift in trend output: Implications for monetary policy. Unpublished manuscript, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • (1999)
    • Lansing, K.J.1
  • 23
    • 84963044471 scopus 로고
    • Diffusion of technical change and the decomposition of output in trend and cycle
    • M. Lippi L. Reichlin Diffusion of technical change and the decomposition of output in trend and cycle Review of Economic Studies 61 1994 19-30
    • (1994) Review of Economic Studies , vol.61 , pp. 19-30
    • Lippi, M.1    Reichlin, L.2
  • 24
    • 0000118629 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Output fluctuations in the United States: What has changed since the early 1980s?
    • M. McConnell G. Perez Quiros Output fluctuations in the United States: What has changed since the early 1980s? American Economic Review 90 2000 1464-1476
    • (2000) American Economic Review , vol.90 , pp. 1464-1476
    • McConnell, M.1    Perez Quiros, G.2
  • 25
    • 19944392888 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The behavior of aggregate consumption according to cointegration analysis with correlated unobserved components
    • Unpublished manuscript, Washington University
    • Morley, J., 2003. The behavior of aggregate consumption according to cointegration analysis with correlated unobserved components. Unpublished manuscript, Washington University.
    • (2003)
    • Morley, J.1
  • 26
    • 0002662032 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: Is information technology the story?
    • S.D. Oliner D.E. Sichel The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: Is information technology the story? Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 2000 3-22
    • (2000) Journal of Economic Perspectives , vol.14 , pp. 3-22
    • Oliner, S.D.1    Sichel, D.E.2
  • 27
    • 0003738105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The quest for prosperity without inflation
    • Unpublished manuscript, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
    • Orphanides, A., 1999. The quest for prosperity without inflation. Unpublished manuscript, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
    • (1999)
    • Orphanides, A.1
  • 28
    • 0000899296 scopus 로고
    • The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis
    • P. Perron The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis Econometrica 57 1989 1361-1401
    • (1989) Econometrica , vol.57 , pp. 1361-1401
    • Perron, P.1
  • 30
    • 0037800699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimates of the productivity trend using time-varying parameter techniques
    • Article 3. Available from:
    • Roberts, J., 2001. Estimates of the productivity trend using time-varying parameter techniques. Contributions to Macroeconomics 1, Article 3. Available from: .
    • (2001) Contributions to Macroeconomics , vol.1
    • Roberts, J.1
  • 32
    • 16244367953 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comment on Sargent and Cogley's 'Evolving post World War II US inflation dynamics'
    • C.A. Sims Comment on Sargent and Cogley's 'Evolving post World War II US inflation dynamics' NBER Macroeconomics Annual 16 2001 373-379
    • (2001) NBER Macroeconomics Annual , vol.16 , pp. 373-379
    • Sims, C.A.1
  • 33
    • 12844251985 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discussion of Cogley and Sargent 'Evolving post World War II US inflation dynamics'
    • J.H. Stock Discussion of Cogley and Sargent 'Evolving post World War II US inflation dynamics' NBER Macroeconomics Annual 16 2001 379-387
    • (2001) NBER Macroeconomics Annual , vol.16 , pp. 379-387
    • Stock, J.H.1
  • 35
    • 0003942372 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A guide to the use of chain-weighted NIPA data
    • Federal Reserve Board of Governors, FEDS Working Paper 2000-35
    • Whelan, K., 2000. A guide to the use of chain-weighted NIPA data. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, FEDS Working Paper 2000-35.
    • (2000)
    • Whelan, K.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.