Sunk in the sahara: The applicability of the sunk cost effect to irredentist disputes

Journal of North African Studies

Volumn 1, Issue 1, 1996, Pages 95-116

  Von Hippel, Karin ^a  

^a KING'S COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 1942515089     PISSN: 13629387     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13629389608718267     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. Le Monde, 26 June 1981, cited in Tony Hodges, Western Sahara: The Roots of a Desert War (Westport, CT: Lawrence Hill and Co. 1983) p.312.
2. Le Monde, 26 June 1981, cited in Tony Hodges, Western Sahara: The Roots of a Desert War (Westport, CT: Lawrence Hill and Co. 1983) p.312.
3. See M. Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics (Chicago: U. of Chicago Press 1953).
4. 'Irredentism' refers to a historical claim made by one sovereign state to land and/or people outside its internationally recognised boundaries, justified on the grounds that the earlier separation was illegal or forced. For further information, see Karin von Hippel, 'The Resurgence of Nationalism and Its International Implications', in Brad Roberts (ed.) Order and Disorder after the Cold War (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 1995) pp.101-16 [first published in The Washington Quarterly 17/4 (Autumn 1994) pp.185-200].
5. 'Irredentism' refers to a historical claim made by one sovereign state to land and/or people outside its internationally recognised boundaries, justified on the grounds that the earlier separation was illegal or forced. For further information, see Karin von Hippel, 'The Resurgence of Nationalism and Its International Implications', in Brad Roberts (ed.) Order and Disorder after the Cold War (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 1995) pp.101-16 [first published in The Washington Quarterly 17/4 (Autumn 1994) pp.185-200].
6. James Mayall, Nationalism and International Society (Cambridge: CUP 1990) p.71.
7. See Karin von Hippel, 'The Non-Interventionary Norm Prevails: An Analysis of the Western Sahara', Journal of Modern African Studies 33/2 (1995), for the effects of non-intervention in irredentist disputes.
8. Hal R. Arkes and Catherine Blumer, 'The Psychology of Sunk Cost', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35 (1985) p. 124.
9. Ibid., p. 125.
10. Economic theorists are well aware of the sunk cost fallacy; indeed, it is included on reading lists for introductory business courses. See, for example, Richard A. Brealey and Stewart C. Myers, Principles of Corporate Finance (NY: McGraw-Hill 1988) p.95.
11. A.I. Teger, Too much invested to quit (NY: Pergamon 1980) cited in Arkes and Blumer (note 6).
12. Arkes and Blumer (note 6) p.132.
13. Ibid., p. 126.
14. A similar psychological phenomenon, entrapment, is discussed with greater frequency, although like the sunk cost effect, its application is far from widespread in international relations. See the Arkes and Blumer study (note 6) pp. 138-9, for a more detailed discussion of the differences between the two. This article will refer primarily to the sunk cost effect, and entrapment theory when it concurs with it.
15. Joel Brockner and Jeffrey Z. Rubin, Entrapment in Escalating Conflicts: A Social Psychological Analysis (NY: Springer-Verlag 1985) p. 10.
16. Ibid., pp.4-6.
17. Ibid., p.23.
18. Dean G. Pruitt and Jeffrey Z. Rubin, Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate, and Settlement (NY: Random House 1985) pp. 123-4.
19. The population was approximately 75,000 according to the 1974 Spanish census, and 163,868 according to the Moroccan census taken in Sept. 1982, of whom 96,784 were stated to reside in the capital, AI-Aaiun.
20. See Map, 'Western Sahara and Neighbouring Countries', Anthony G. Pazzanita, 'Morocco versus Polisario: a political interpretation', Journal of Modern African Studies 32/2 (1994) p.271.
21. Estimates of Morocco's annual expenditure on this costly guerrilla war have been in the $1 billion range, but the berms at least permitted the resumption of phosphate production which had been hampered by repeated Polisario attacks.
22. AFP, Rabat, 7 Nov. 1982, in Tony Hodges, 'The Western Saharans', The Minority Rights Group Report 40 (London: Expedite Graphic Ltd. 1984) p.14.
23. David Seddon, 'Morocco: Economy', in Regional Surveys of the World: The Middle East and North Africa, 1990, 36th ed. (London: Europa 1989) p.674; The Economist, 23 Feb. 1991, p.26; Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile. Morocco, 1993-94, p.22; and Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile, Morocco, 1994-95, p.22.
24. David Seddon, 'Morocco: Economy', in Regional Surveys of the World: The Middle East and North Africa, 1990, 36th ed. (London: Europa 1989) p.674; The Economist, 23 Feb. 1991, p.26; Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile. Morocco, 1993-94, p.22; and Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile, Morocco, 1994-95, p.22.
25. David Seddon, 'Morocco: Economy', in Regional Surveys of the World: The Middle East and North Africa, 1990, 36th ed. (London: Europa 1989) p.674; The Economist, 23 Feb. 1991, p.26; Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile. Morocco, 1993-94, p.22; and Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile, Morocco, 1994-95, p.22.
26. David Seddon, 'Morocco: Economy', in Regional Surveys of the World: The Middle East and North Africa, 1990, 36th ed. (London: Europa 1989) p.674; The Economist, 23 Feb. 1991, p.26; Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile. Morocco, 1993-94, p.22; and Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile, Morocco, 1994-95, p.22.
27. Ahmed Rhazaoui, 'Recent Economic Trends: Managing the Indebtedness', in I. William Zartman (ed.). The Political Economy of Morocco (NY: Praeger 1987) p. 151.
28. Hodges, Western Sahara (note 1)p.296.
29. Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile, Morocco 1993-94, p.36.
30. Ibid., p.23.
31. Food prices went up in the late 1970s and early 1980s to offset some of the public debt, causing unrest, such as the 1981 and 1984 riots, when an estimated 700 civilians died.
32. The Christian Science Monitor, Weekly International Edition, 8 Aug. 1983; and Afrika Post (July 1984) pp.24-6.
33. The Christian Science Monitor, Weekly International Edition, 8 Aug. 1983; and Afrika Post (July 1984) pp.24-6.
34. Hodges 'The Western Saharans' (note 20) p.13.
35. Cambio 16, No.1,011, 8 April 1991, p.14.
36. The Financial Times, 3 Nov. 1993.
37. Cambio 16, No.997, 31 Dec. 1990, p.83.
38. Le Monde, 16 March 1985.
39. Calculated from World Tables 1992, The World Bank; and International Financial Statistics Yearbook, The International Monetary Fund, 1994.
40. Calculated from African Development Indicators, IBRD/The World Bank, 1992.
41. Estimates for the defence budget for 1992,1993 and 1994 were $1.1 billion, $1.1 billion and $1 billion respectively. These numbers were not included in the graph because typically the defence budget is somewhat lower than actual expenditure. The Military Balance, 1994-95. The graph also does not show military expenditure from 1991 to the present because these figures were not listed in The Military Balance through 1995.
42. From The Military Balance, years 1973-96.
43. From The Military Balance; years 1973-92; and SIPRI Yearbook, 1990, p.409.
44. From The Military Balance; years 1973-92; and SIPRI Yearbook, 1990, p.409.
45. SiPRI Yearbook, 1990, p.409. The percentage for civilian deaths was calculated from information supplied in World Military and Social Expenditures, 15th ed., Ruth Leger Sivard 1993, p.21.
46. SiPRI Yearbook, 1990, p.409. The percentage for civilian deaths was calculated from information supplied in World Military and Social Expenditures, 15th ed., Ruth Leger Sivard 1993, p.21.
47. Afrika Post 12 (Dec. 1984) pp.14-15; Africa Research Bulletin 29/2 (16 Feb.-15 March 1992); and Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile, Morocco, 1993-94, pp.35-6.
48. Afrika Post 12 (Dec. 1984) pp.14-15; Africa Research Bulletin 29/2 (16 Feb.-15 March 1992); and Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile, Morocco, 1993-94, pp.35-6.
49. Afrika Post 12 (Dec. 1984) pp.14-15; Africa Research Bulletin 29/2 (16 Feb.-15 March 1992); and Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile, Morocco, 1993-94, pp.35-6.
50. Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, 'Domestic Variables in Inter-State Conflict: A Case Study of the Sahara', Armed Forces and Society 7/3 (Spring 1981) p.419; Hodges Western Sahara (note 1) p.13. Moreover, external debt increased 500 per cent between 1974 and 1980. Roger Cooper, 'Morocco: the Poor Country that Ought to be Rich', Euromoney (April 1981) p.60.
51. Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, 'Domestic Variables in Inter-State Conflict: A Case Study of the Sahara', Armed Forces and Society 7/3 (Spring 1981) p.419; Hodges Western Sahara (note 1) p.13. Moreover, external debt increased 500 per cent between 1974 and 1980. Roger Cooper, 'Morocco: the Poor Country that Ought to be Rich', Euromoney (April 1981) p.60.
52. Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, 'Domestic Variables in Inter-State Conflict: A Case Study of the Sahara', Armed Forces and Society 7/3 (Spring 1981) p.419; Hodges Western Sahara (note 1) p.13. Moreover, external debt increased 500 per cent between 1974 and 1980. Roger Cooper, 'Morocco: the Poor Country that Ought to be Rich', Euromoney (April 1981) p.60.
53. World Bank Debt Tables 1994-1995: External Finance for Developing Countries, Vol.2 (Washington, DC 1994).
54. Calculated from The Military Balance, years 1982-1995.
55. Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Profile. Morocco. 1993-94, p.14.
56. Ibid., p.40.
57. The Financial Times, 3 Nov. 1993.
58. Ibid.
59. Cooper (note 40) p.71.
60. Economist Intelligence Unit, Quarterly Economic Review of Morocco 2 (1984) p.12.
61. FBIS, LD 092041, 9 July 1985.
62. Le Monde, 5 March 1980.
63. Le Monde, 4 July 1981, and The Guardian, 4 July 1981, cited in Hodges Western Sahara (note 1) p.312.
64. Le Monde, 4 July 1981, and The Guardian, 4 July 1981, cited in Hodges Western Sahara (note 1) p.312.
65. Le Monde, 4 July 1981, and The Guardian, 4 July 1981, cited in Hodges Western Sahara (note 1) p.312.
66. The first of the two quotes was paraphrased by the author of Morocco News Summary, Special Edition, 'The Withdrawal of Morocco from the Organization of African Unity', The Embassy of the Kingdom of Morocco, 12 Nov. 1984, p. 18, while the second was Hassan's quote, also in the same source.
67. Press comments were excerpted from Morocco News Summary, Washington, DC, The Embassy of the Kingdom of Morocco, 12 Nov. 1984, pp. 19-20.
68. FBIS, LD 092041, 9 July 1985.
69. El Pa's. 22 Aug. 1991.
70. Mark A. Tessler, 'Image and Reality in Moroccan Political Economy', in Zartman (note 22) p.229. Italicised emphasis are mine.
71. Arkes and Blumer (note6) p.126.
72. See von Hippel, 'The Non-interventionary Norm Prevails' (note 5), for a discussion of the international component contributing to the intractability of this and other irredentist disputes.
73. The IMF and the World Bank also recognise this recent recovery, and can take some of the credit for the turnaround. They are hopeful that the economy will continue to expand in the immediate future.
74. Reuter News, 2 June 1993.
75. Sur/Oeste, 23 May 1982.
76. El Independiente, 19 Aug. 1988.
77. The Economist, 19 Sept. 1992, p.86.
78. G.M. Dillon, The Falklands, Politics and War (London: Macmillan 1989) pp.237-42.
79. From Digest of Debates, p.335, as quoted in Dillon (note 64) p.94.
80. Gross Bilateral Aid to Gibraltar, 1964-1990, UK Statistics Department, 4 March 1992. The programme was finished in 1994.
81. George Drower, Britain's Dependent Territories: A Fistful of Islands (Hants: Dartmouth 1992) p.11.
82. The Economist, 4 Feb. 1989, p.14. The latter figure came from conversations with members of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office who work on Gibraltar. They emphasised that the money comes only from MOD.
83. The Daily Telegraph, 28 Feb. 1990.
84. Letter to Michael Colvin, MP, from Tristan Garel-Jones, Minister of State, 10 March 1992.
85. The Economist, 6 Nov. 1993.
86. Drower (note 67) p.123.
87. Brockner and Rubin (note 13) pp.255-6.
88. Richard P. Larrick, James N. Morgan and Richard E. Nisbett, Teaching the Use of Cost-Benefit Reasoning in Everyday Life', Psychological Science 1/6 (Nov. 1990) p.363.
89. Ibid., p. 369.
90. Ibid.
91. Ibid.
92. G.B. Northcraft and G. Wolf, 'Dollars, sense, and sunk costs: A life cycle model of resource allocation decisions'. Academy of Management Review 9 (1984) pp.225-34.
93. R. Dawkins and T.R. Carlisle, 'Parental investment, mate desertion and a fallacy', Nature 262 (8 July 1976) p.132. For a more detailed reading, see David W. Winkler's, 'Parental investment decision rules in tree swallows: parental defense, abandonment, and the so-called Concorde Fallacy', Behavioral Ecology 2/2 (23 March 1991) pp.133-42; or Richard Dawkins and H. Jane Brockmann's, 'Do Digger Wasps Commit the Concorde Fallacy?' Animal Behaviour 28/3 (1980) pp.892-6.
94. R. Dawkins and T.R. Carlisle, 'Parental investment, mate desertion and a fallacy', Nature 262 (8 July 1976) p.132. For a more detailed reading, see David W. Winkler's, 'Parental investment decision rules in tree swallows: parental defense, abandonment, and the so-called Concorde Fallacy', Behavioral Ecology 2/2 (23 March 1991) pp.133-42; or Richard Dawkins and H. Jane Brockmann's, 'Do Digger Wasps Commit the Concorde Fallacy?' Animal Behaviour 28/3 (1980) pp.892-6.
95. R. Dawkins and T.R. Carlisle, 'Parental investment, mate desertion and a fallacy', Nature 262 (8 July 1976) p.132. For a more detailed reading, see David W. Winkler's, 'Parental investment decision rules in tree swallows: parental defense, abandonment, and the so-called Concorde Fallacy', Behavioral Ecology 2/2 (23 March 1991) pp.133-42; or Richard Dawkins and H. Jane Brockmann's, 'Do Digger Wasps Commit the Concorde Fallacy?' Animal Behaviour 28/3 (1980) pp.892-6.