A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 71, Issue 4, 2004, Pages 365-390

  Watanabe, Chihiro ^a   Kondo, Reiko ^b   Ouchi, Noritomo ^a   Wei, Haihong ^a  

^a TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

^b Broadcasting Technology Division   (Japan)

Author keywords

Competitive innovations; Diffusion orbit; Lotka Volterra equations; Optimal policy option; Technology diffusion

Indexed keywords

ANALOG TO DIGITAL CONVERSION; BROADCASTING; COLOR TELEVISION; COMPETITION; COMPUTER AIDED ANALYSIS; ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING; INTERNET; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PUBLIC POLICY; TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING; TELEPHONE;

CELLULAR TELEPHONES; ORBIT ANALYSIS; PREDATOR-PREY SYSTEM;

ECOSYSTEMS;

INNOVATION; SUBSTITUTION; TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT; TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION;

ASIA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; JAPAN;

EID: 1942473838     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00351-7     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Gruebler A. Technology and Global Change 1998 Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge
2. Bauer M. Resistance to New Technology 1995 Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge
3. Christensen C.M. The Innovator's Dilemma 1997 Harvard Business School Press Cambridge
4. Moore J.F. Predators and prey: A new ecology of competition Harv. Bus. Rev., May-June 1993 75-83
5. Binswanger H. Ruttan V. Induced Innovation: Technology, Institutions, and Development 1978 John Hopkins Univ. Press Baltimore
6. Ruttan V.W. Technology, Growth, and Development-An Induced Innovation Perspective 2001 Oxford Univ. Press New York
7. Nelson R.R. Sampat B.N. Making sense of institutions as a factor shaping economic performance J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 44 1 2001 31-54
8. Sonis M. Dynamic choice of alternatives, innovation diffusion, and ecological dynamics of the Volterra-Lotka model Lond. Pap. Regional Sci. 14 1984 29-43
9. Hofbander J. Sigmund K. The Theory of Evolution and Dynamical Systems 1988 Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge
10. Kerner E.H. On the Volterra-Lotka principle Bull. Math. Biophys. 23 1961 133-149
11. Noll A.M. The evolution of television technology Gerbang D. The Economics, Technology and Content of Digital TV 1999 3-17 Kluwer Academic Publishers Norwell, MA
12. Parker R. The economics of digital TV's future Gerbang D. The Economies, Technology and Content of Digital TV 1999 197-213 Kluwer Academic Publishers Norwell, MA
13. Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications: Report on the Next Generation Broadcasting Technologies, Tokyo, 2001.
14. Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications: White Paper 2001 on Communications in Japan, Tokyo, 2001.
15. Hart J.A. Digital television in Europe and Japan Gerbang D. The Economics, Technology and Content of Digital TV 1999 287-314 Kluwer Academic Publishers Norwell, MA
16. Advisory Committee on Digital Terrestrial Broadcasting: Construction of New Terrestrial Broadcasting System, Tokyo, 1998.
17. Sharif M.N. Kabir C. A generalized model for forecasting technological substitution Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 8 1976 353-364
18. M. Peshel, W. Mende, M. Grauel, Qualitative analysis of nonlinear systems by the Lotka-Volterra approach, IIASA Collaborative Papers CP-83-60, 1983.
19. Scudo F. Ziegler J. The Golden Age of Theoretical Ecology, 1923-1940 Lecture Notes in Biomathematics vol. 22 1978 Springer Berlin, Heidelberg
20. A.A. Harms, E.M. Krenciglowa, An extended Lotka-Volterra model for population-energy systems, Paper presented at the International Symposium on Energy and Ecological Modelling, Louisville, KY, 1981.
21. Metcalfe J.S. Impulse and diffusion in the study of technical change Futures 13 1981 347-359
22. Meyer P.S. Bi-logistic growth Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 47 1 1994 89-102
23. Pistorius C.W.I. Utterback J.M. The death knells of mature technologies Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 50 1995 133-151
24. Meyer P.S. Ausbel J.H. Carrying capacity: A model with logistically varying limits Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 61 3 1999 209-214
25. Geroski P.A. Models of technology diffusion Res. Policy 29 4-5 2000 603-625
26. Watanabe C. Kondo R. Ouchi N. Wei H. Formation of IT features through interaction with institutional systems Technovation 2002 (in press)
27. Antonelli C. New information technology and the evolution of the industrial organization of the production of knowledge Lamberton D. Macdonald S. Nightingale J. Information and Organization 1999 263-284 Elsevier New York