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Volumn 52, Issue 2, 2005, Pages 45-54

A grand strategy for Central Asia

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EID: 18544372122     PISSN: 10758216     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2005.11052196     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (3)

References (76)
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    • note
    • This article focuses on the formerly Soviet Central Asia, defined here as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Although the discussion necessarily employs the term "Central Asia," one must note that its widespread use to designate this area is both unfortunate and misleading, because it overlooks important security dynamics involving neighboring states. A more dynamic approach would see "Central Asia" in a wider context as a region comprising the formerly Soviet Central Asia plus Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran and possibly even China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region.
  • 2
    • 18544364461 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reading the past into American foreign policy
    • [Spring]
    • As one commentator recently noted, "Experience suggests that public interest soon fades and policy makers quickly shift their attention to the next crisis" (William Hay, "Reading the Past into American Foreign Policy," Orbis 48, no. 2 [Spring 2004]: 374).
    • (2004) Orbis , vol.48 , Issue.2 , pp. 374
    • Hay, W.1
  • 3
    • 18544368198 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Central Asia: 'Apocalypse soon' or eccentric survival?
    • ed. Angel Rabasa et al. (Santa Monica, CA: Rand)
    • See, for example, Cheryl Benard, "Central Asia: 'Apocalypse Soon' or Eccentric Survival?" in The Muslim World After 9/11, ed. Angel Rabasa et al. (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2004), p. 365.
    • (2004) The Muslim World after 9/11 , pp. 365
    • Benard, C.1
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    • A grand strategy
    • November/December
    • John Lewis Gaddis, "A Grand Strategy," Foreign Policy 81, no. 6 (November/December 2002): 56.
    • (2002) Foreign Policy , vol.81 , Issue.6 , pp. 56
    • Gaddis, J.L.1
  • 6
    • 18544362469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The 2005 Freedom House evaluation of Political Rights and Civil Liberties, respectively, is as follows (0 is most free, 7 is least free): Kazakhstan 6/5, Kyrgyzstan 6/5, Tajikistan 6/5, Uzbekistan 7/6, and Turkmenistan 7/7. In 1988, the Soviet Union was set at 6/5, and in 1991, at 4/4. For more information, see www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld /2005/table2005.pdf.
  • 7
    • 0010350611 scopus 로고
    • Why Turkey is the only muslim democracy
    • March
    • For a discussion of this, see Bernard Lewis, "Why Turkey Is the Only Muslim Democracy," Middle East Quarterly 1, no. 1 (March 1994), available at www.meforum.org/article/216/.
    • (1994) Middle East Quarterly , vol.1 , Issue.1
    • Lewis, B.1
  • 8
    • 3142724082 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Islam and democracy - Micro-level indications of compatibility
    • Steven Hofmann, "Islam and Democracy - Micro-Level Indications of Compatibility," Comparative Political Studies 37, no. 6 (2004): 652-76. In his conclusion, Hofmann notes, "It may be argued that countries included in this study [Turkey, Bosnia, Bangladesh, and Azerbaijan] have secular governments, as well as fewer practicing adherents of Islam than many other Muslim countries, which may raise doubts about the applicability of these empirical findings to other countries," The Central Asian states, however, all share these characteristics with the countries surveyed, indicating that similar results would be found here.
    • (2004) Comparative Political Studies , vol.37 , Issue.6 , pp. 652-676
    • Hofmann, S.1
  • 9
    • 0036804946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How muslims view democracy: Evidence from Central Asia
    • Richard Rose, "How Muslims View Democracy: Evidence from Central Asia," Journal of Democracy 13, no. (2002): 107. This majority stands at 61 percent in both states (in Kazakhstan, the share of undecided respondents was 18 percent, in Kyrgyzstan, 14 percent). The World Values Survey found that as many as 78 percent of Kyrgyz polled prefer democracy over the alternatives;
    • (2002) Journal of Democracy , vol.13 , pp. 107
    • Rose, R.1
  • 12
    • 18544375435 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • [November 19]
    • Commenting on the situation in Uzbekistan, which is matched for repressive rule only by Turkmenistan, Martha Brill Olcott "cautioned that [while] human rights should not be forgotten ⋯ concerns about them may have to take a back seat to economic development" (Report on Carnegie Endowment for International Peace meeting, "The Situation on the Ground: Security Risks and Opportunities in Central Asia" [November 19, 2001], available at www.ceip.org/files/events/OlcottSitonGround.asp).
    • (2001) The Situation on the Ground: Security Risks and Opportunities in Central Asia
  • 13
    • 0004153766 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New York: Norton
    • On the dangers of democratization, see Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence (New York: Norton, 2000).
    • (2000) From Voting to Violence
    • Snyder, J.1
  • 14
    • 0009664429 scopus 로고
    • The myth of the authoritarian advantage
    • For representatives of this perspective, see José María Maravall, "The Myth of the Authoritarian Advantage" in Economic Reform and Democracy (1995);
    • (1995) Economic Reform and Democracy
    • Maravall, J.M.1
  • 17
    • 0242319438 scopus 로고
    • The puzzle of East Asian exceptionalism
    • ed. Larry Diamond and Marc Plattner (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press)
    • and Minxin Pei, "The Puzzle of East Asian Exceptionalism"; all in Economic Reform and Democracy, ed. Larry Diamond and Marc Plattner (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995).
    • (1995) Economic Reform and Democracy
    • Pei, M.1
  • 18
    • 4644362985 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why democracies excel
    • September/October
    • See also Joseph Siegle, Michael Weinstein, and Morton Halperin, "Why Democracies Excel," Foreign Affairs 83, no. 5 (September/October 2004): 57-71.
    • (2004) Foreign Affairs , vol.83 , Issue.5 , pp. 57-71
    • Siegle, J.1    Weinstein, M.2    Halperin, M.3
  • 20
    • 18544375144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Heritage Foundation evaluation is as follows (1 is most open, 5 is most repressed): Kyrgyzstan 3.29, Kazakhstan 3.66, Tajikistan 4.00, Uzbekistan 4.10, Turkmenistan 4.36; see www.heritage.org/researcn/features/index/countries.cfm.
  • 21
    • 18544380353 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • This list also includes Cuba, Libya, and North Korea.
  • 22
    • 18544363063 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Poverty in Central Asia
    • Daniel Linotte, "Poverty in Central Asia," Helsinki Monitor 13, no. 2 (2002): 167-76.
    • (2002) Helsinki Monitor , vol.13 , Issue.2 , pp. 167-176
    • Linotte, D.1
  • 24
    • 18544366236 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • London: Economist Intelligence Unit
    • Kazakhstan: Country Profile 2003 (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2003), p. 31.
    • (2003) Kazakhstan: Country Profile 2003 , pp. 31
  • 25
    • 0347549233 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See Maravall, "Myth of the Authoritarian Advantage," pp. 15-17. It could be added that in the absence of political accountability, the economy is also vulnerable to the whims of autocratic rulers. The 1997 decision of President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan to introduce a damaging system of multiple exchange rates was one of the more irresponsible instances.
    • Myth of the Authoritarian Advantage , pp. 15-17
    • Maravall1
  • 26
    • 3142740105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pew Research Center
    • It is important to add that democratization may actually have the opposite effect, by serving to release anti-U.S. sentiments now controlled by an authoritarian government. However, as shown below, in Central Asia anti-U.S. feelings do not run anywhere near as high as in many other parts of the Muslim world, suggesting that for the United States the risk of democratization in the region is relatively small. See Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, "A Year After Iraq War: Mistrust of America in Europe Ever Higher, Muslim Anger Persists" (Pew Research Center, 2004), available at http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=206/.
    • (2004) A Year after Iraq War: Mistrust of America in Europe Ever Higher, Muslim Anger Persists
  • 27
    • 18544389048 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is radical Islam inevitable in Central Asia? Priorities for engagement
    • December
    • In a 2003 survey the International Crisis Group found that the proportion of people who look favorably on the United States is 47.8 percent in Kyrgyzstan, 60.8 percent in Uzbekistan, and 76.3 percent in Tajikistan, and the proportion who look unfavorably on the United States is 30.6 percent, 10.9 percent, and 20.0 percent respectively; in ICG Asia, "Is Radical Islam Inevitable in Central Asia? Priorities for Engagement" (International Crisis Group Asia Group Report No. 72, December 2003), p. 23; available at www.crisisweb.org.
    • (2003) International Crisis Group Asia Group Report No. 72 , vol.72 , pp. 23
  • 28
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    • note
    • In early July 2003, Heidar Aliyev was taken to Ankara for treatment, only to be transferred to the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio a month later. His death was announced on December 12, 2003, that is, two months after the presidential election.
  • 29
    • 18544384498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Human Rights Reports (2004), available at www.state.gov/g/drl/hr/c1470.htm.
    • (2004) Human Rights Reports
  • 30
    • 18544364026 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Some of the more prominent opposition figures include Galymzhan Zhakianov (Kazakhstan) and Feliks Kulov (Kyrgyzstan).
  • 32
    • 18544374115 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Landmarks on the road of Jihad
    • Alexei Malashenko, "Landmarks on the Road of Jihad," Russia in Global Affairs 1, no. 1 (2003): 132-33.
    • (2003) Russia in Global Affairs , vol.1 , Issue.1 , pp. 132-133
    • Malashenko, A.1
  • 33
    • 2942641933 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Islam, state, and Society in Central Asia
    • For a discussion of this, see Yaacov Ro'i, "Islam, State, and Society in Central Asia," Helsinki Monitor 14, no. 3 (2003): 242-53;
    • (2003) Helsinki Monitor , vol.14 , Issue.3 , pp. 242-253
    • Ro'i, Y.1
  • 34
    • 84937388695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Under the green banner: Islamic radicals in Russia and the former Soviet union
    • Igor Rotar, "Under the Green Banner: Islamic Radicals in Russia and the Former Soviet Union," Religion, State, and Society 30, no. 2 (2002): 89-153;
    • (2002) Religion, State, and Society , vol.30 , Issue.2 , pp. 89-153
    • Rotar, I.1
  • 35
    • 85055301220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The politicisation of Islam in post-Soviet Central Asia
    • and Shirin Akiner, "The Politicisation of Islam in Post-Soviet Central Asia," Religion, State, and Society 31, no. 2 (2003): 97-122.
    • (2003) Religion, State, and Society , vol.31 , Issue.2 , pp. 97-122
    • Akiner, S.1
  • 36
    • 0034932916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Islamic revival in Central Asia: A potent force or a misconception?
    • Ghoncheh Tazmini, "The Islamic Revival in Central Asia: A Potent Force or a Misconception?" Central Asian Survey 20, no. 1 (2001): 67.
    • (2001) Central Asian Survey , vol.20 , Issue.1 , pp. 67
    • Tazmini, G.1
  • 37
    • 84920321501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ibid., p. 68. All of Central Asia's leaders have, to varying degrees, used their Muslim background to distance themselves from the Soviet apparatus (in which most of them served loyally) and to show that they are firmly committed to the non-Russian cultural identity of the region.
    • Central Asian Survey , pp. 68
  • 39
    • 18544362019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hurdles in implementing the New Afghan constitution
    • February 5
    • Amin Tarzi, "Hurdles in Implementing the New Afghan Constitution," RFE/RL Afghanistan Report (February 5, 2004), available at www.rferl.org.
    • (2004) RFE/RL Afghanistan Report
    • Tarzi, A.1
  • 40
    • 0141469272 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Princeton: Princeton University Press
    • For an excellent treatment of the Soviet policy toward Islam, see Yaacov Ro'i, Islam in the Soviet Union: From the Second World War to Gorbachev (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000). On the impact of communist rule on different value systems
    • (2000) Islam in the Soviet Union: From the Second World War to Gorbachev
    • Ro'i, Y.1
  • 42
    • 18544373682 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Contrasts between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
    • May 17
    • See, for example, "Contrasts Between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan," Economist (May 17, 2003): 39.
    • (2003) Economist , pp. 39
  • 43
    • 18544361876 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Afghanistan is still in a category of its own, but as a case it suddenly seems less extreme.
  • 45
    • 84937325404 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The many faces of modern Russia
    • March/April
    • A well-written, though slightly alarmist, account of the situation in Russia before the introduction of reforms by President Vladimir Putin is Sam Nunn and Adam Stulberg, "The Many Faces of Modern Russia," Foreign Affairs 79, no. 2 (March/April 2000): 45-62. The Putin reforms were designed to increase, first, the coercive and administrative capacity of the state and then, second, its legitimacy among the population.
    • (2000) Foreign Affairs , vol.79 , Issue.2 , pp. 45-62
    • Nunn, S.1    Stulberg, A.2
  • 46
    • 0003692259 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Russia at the turn of the millennium
    • ed. Nataliya Gevorkyan, Nataliya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov (New York: Public Affairs)
    • Vladimir Putin, "Russia at the Turn of the Millennium," in First Person, ed. Nataliya Gevorkyan, Nataliya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov (New York: Public Affairs, 2000), appendix.
    • (2000) First Person
    • Putin, V.1
  • 47
    • 4644354353 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • October 16
    • Controversially, the 2002 census put the number of Russian Muslims at only 14.5 million (i.e., 10 percent of the population), but Putin subsequently referred to the pre-census standard figure of 20 million (i.e., one in seven) as the correct one. See RFE/RL Newsline (October 16, 2003). The gap produced by the census results indicates just how sensitive questions of ethnicity and religion are in today's Russia.
    • (2003) RFE/RL Newsline
  • 48
    • 18544371943 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • July 9
    • In an interview, U.S. observer Alex Alexiev warned readers that an Islamic radicalization is taking place "also in Russia - not just in Chechnya and Dagestan, but also in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, everywhere where Muslims are living," adding that "this could very well be a greater threat for Russia than for the USA" (Izvestia, July 9, 2003).
    • (2003) Izvestia
  • 49
    • 36148984719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Russia and its Muslims: The politics of identity at the international-domestic border
    • Dmitri Glinski, "Russia and Its Muslims: The Politics of Identity at the International-Domestic Border," East European Constitutional Review 11, nos. 1-2 (2002): 82.
    • (2002) East European Constitutional Review , vol.11 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 82
    • Glinski, D.1
  • 51
    • 0036555376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The secret policemen's ball: The United States, Russia and the international order after 11 September
    • Afghanistan illustrates how extreme state weakness may threaten Russian interests; see, for example, Anatol Lieven, "The Secret Policemen's Ball: The United States, Russia and the International Order After 11 September," International Affairs 78, no. 2 (2002): 245-59.
    • (2002) International Affairs , vol.78 , Issue.2 , pp. 245-259
    • Lieven, A.1
  • 52
    • 18544379440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Until 1992, not only did these groups form a single minority within a common state, they also faced the same uncompromising regime opposition. Add to that a shared language (Russian) and a shared religious background (more than 90 percent are Sunnis of the Hanafi school), and a picture of mutual sympathy and understanding emerges.
  • 54
    • 4644354353 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • October 16
    • Putin's decision to attend the October 2003 summit of the Organization of the Islamic Conference - Russia's first-ever participation in the QIC - also illustrates this attempt to formulate a positive agenda. Speaking before his departure for Malaysia, Putin explained that members of the Muslim minority "have the right to be part of the global Islamic community," adding that "QIC participation is a way for Russian Muslims to communicate with other Muslims and for Russia to better appreciate what is going on in the Islamic world" (RFE/RL Newsline [October 16, 2003]).
    • (2003) RFE/RL Newsline
  • 55
    • 18544366078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • No single state - or, indeed, combination of states - seems capable of challenging Russia and U.S. influence in the region or willing to accept the possible costs of doing so.
  • 57
    • 2042533425 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Russian-american partnership: A chance to open a new page
    • Sergei Kortunov, "Russian-American Partnership: A Chance to Open a New Page," International Affairs 48, no. 3 (2002): 32.
    • (2002) International Affairs , vol.48 , Issue.3 , pp. 32
    • Kortunov, S.1
  • 58
  • 59
    • 18544388346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • April 15
    • Izvestia (April 15, 2004).
    • (2004) Izvestia
  • 61
    • 18544369263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Russia: Summit focuses on increasing energy exports, especially to U.S.
    • September 24
    • See, e.g., Sophie Lambroschini, "Russia: Summit Focuses on Increasing Energy Exports, Especially to U.S.," RFE/RL Features (September 24, 2003).
    • (2003) RFE/RL Features
    • Lambroschini, S.1
  • 62
    • 18544386212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004, the share of total proven oil and gas resources in the world is 0.8 percent/1.1 percent for Kazakhstan; less than 0.05 percent/1.6 percent for Turkmenistan, and 0.1 percent/1.1 percent for Uzbekistan (www.bp.com).
  • 63
    • 14844286330 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • [March 2]
    • Kazakhstan, in this respect the most important state, implements a very cautious policy as it finds itself caught between U.S. and Russian interests (RFE/RL Newsline [March 2, 2004]).
    • (2004) RFE/RL Newsline
  • 64
    • 18544368961 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • According to a World Bank estimate; see http://Inweb18.worldbank.org/eca/eca.nsf.
  • 65
    • 18544369264 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ibid
    • I b i d.
  • 66
    • 84909057301 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Water: The difficult path to a sustainable future for Central Asia
    • ed. Tom Everett-Heath (London: Routledge)
    • See Kai Wegerich, "Water: The Difficult Path to a Sustainable Future for Central Asia," in Central Asia: Aspects of Transition, ed. Tom Everett-Heath (London: Routledge, 2003), pp. 256-59.
    • (2003) Central Asia: Aspects of Transition , pp. 256-259
    • Wegerich, K.1
  • 67
    • 18544387424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • While annual per capita water resources in the region only constitute about two-thirds of the world average, at more than 4,300 cubic meters they easily exceed the oft-cited "water scarcity" definition of 2,000 cubic meters per capita per year. Figures have been calculated from World Bank, Water Resources in Europe and Central Asia, vol. 2 (2003), available at www.worldbank.org.
    • (2003) Water Resources in Europe and Central Asia , vol.2
  • 68
    • 18544389662 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • [London: Economist Intelligence Unit]
    • Illustrating a classic "prisoners' dilemma" situation, a recent report explained, "There is little prospect that the Central Asian states will succeed in reducing drastically their use of water and renovating their hydrosystems. None is willing to do so if it feels that it is losing out to the others" (Uzbekistan: Country Profile 2003 [London: Economist Intelligence Unit 2003], p. 17).
    • (2003) Uzbekistan: Country Profile 2003 , pp. 17
  • 69
    • 18544383901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • www.europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/ceeca/tacis/index.htm, and www.ebrd.org/about/strategy/index.htm
    • For the levels of aid, greatly increased since 2001, see www.usaid.gov/locations/europe_eurasia/sectors.html, www.europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/ceeca/tacis/index.htm, and www.ebrd.org/about/strategy/index.htm.
  • 70
    • 18544379902 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EBRD Press Release (April 6)
    • "EBRD Updates Strategy for Uzbekistan," EBRD Press Release (April 6, 2004), available at www.ebrd.org/new/pressrel/2004/index.htm.
    • (2004) EBRD Updates Strategy for Uzbekistan
  • 71
    • 18544380914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • April 7
    • Human Rights Watch, "Uzbekistan: EBRD Leading by Example" (April 7, 2004), available at http://www.org/english/docs/2004/04/06/uzbeki8405_txt.htm.
    • (2004) Uzbekistan: EBRD Leading by Example
  • 72
    • 18544370205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The combined gross domestic product of all fives states in 2003 reached $48.7 billion, that is, approximately twice that of Luxembourg; see World Bank, Quick Reference Tables, available at www.worldbank.org/data/databytopic/GDP.pdf.
    • Quick Reference Tables
  • 73
    • 18544389826 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) recommends that aid be allocated "across and within countries more selectively," and that more emphasis should be placed on "host country participation, ownership, and internal participation." In Meeting the Challenges of the Twenty-first Century (2004), p. 6, available at www.usaid.gov/policy/pdabz3221.pdf.
    • (2004) Meeting the Challenges of the Twenty-first Century , pp. 6
  • 75
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    • Introduction: The impact of international organizations on the Central and Eastern European states - Conceptual and theoretical issues
    • ed. Ronald Linden (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield)
    • For these two extremes, see Frank Schimmelfenning, "Introduction: The Impact of International Organizations on the Central and Eastern European States - Conceptual and Theoretical Issues," in Norms and Nannies, ed. Ronald Linden (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2002), pp. 11-13.
    • (2002) Norms and Nannies , pp. 11-13
    • Schimmelfenning, F.1


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