The Impact of Political Interests in the 1994 and 1996 Congressional Elections: The Role of the National Rifle Association

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 34, Issue 2, 2004, Pages 331-344

  Kenny, Christopher ^a   McBurnett, Michael ^b   Bordua, David ^c  

^a LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b RBC Centura Bank ^*

^c UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA CHAMPAIGN   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 1842632521     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123404000079     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Edward Tufte, 'Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 812-26; Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections (New York: HarperCollins, 1992); James Campbell, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky, 1993); Jonathon S. Krasno, Challengers, Competition, and Reelection (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994).
2. Edward Tufte, 'Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 812-26; Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections (New York: HarperCollins, 1992); James Campbell, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky, 1993); Jonathon S. Krasno, Challengers, Competition, and Reelection (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994).
3. Edward Tufte, 'Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 812-26; Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections (New York: HarperCollins, 1992); James Campbell, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky, 1993); Jonathon S. Krasno, Challengers, Competition, and Reelection (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994).
4. Edward Tufte, 'Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 812-26; Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections (New York: HarperCollins, 1992); James Campbell, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky, 1993); Jonathon S. Krasno, Challengers, Competition, and Reelection (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994).
5. Clyde Wilcox, The Latest American Revolution? (New York: St Martin's Press, 1995).
6. Wilcox, The Latest American Revolution?
7. Robert Herold, 'Letter to the Editor', Chronicle of Higher Education, 20 (January 1995), B3.
8. V. O. Key, Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups, 3rd edn (New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1952); Margaret A. Latus, 'Assessing Ideological PACs: From Outrage to Understanding', in Michael A. Malbin, ed., Money and Politics in the United States (Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House, 1984); pp. 142-71; Kay L. Schlozman and John T. Tierney, Organized Interests in American Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1986).
9. V. O. Key, Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups, 3rd edn (New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1952); Margaret A. Latus, 'Assessing Ideological PACs: From Outrage to Understanding', in Michael A. Malbin, ed., Money and Politics in the United States (Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House, 1984); pp. 142-71; Kay L. Schlozman and John T. Tierney, Organized Interests in American Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1986).
10. V. O. Key, Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups, 3rd edn (New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1952); Margaret A. Latus, 'Assessing Ideological PACs: From Outrage to Understanding', in Michael A. Malbin, ed., Money and Politics in the United States (Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House, 1984); pp. 142-71; Kay L. Schlozman and John T. Tierney, Organized Interests in American Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1986).
11. Sandy L. Maisel, Parties and Elections in America (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1993).
12. Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America (New York: Macmillan, 1993), p. 25.
13. Sydney Verba and Norman H. Nie, Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality (New York: Harper & Row, 1972).
14. James Q. Wilson, Political Organizations (New York: Basic Books, 1973); David Knoke, 'Incentives in Collective Action Organizations', American Sociological Review, 53 (1988), 311-29; Anne Hildreth, 'The Importance of Purposes in "Purposive" Groups: Incentives and Participation in the Sanctuary Movement', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 447-63.
15. James Q. Wilson, Political Organizations (New York: Basic Books, 1973); David Knoke, 'Incentives in Collective Action Organizations', American Sociological Review, 53 (1988), 311-29; Anne Hildreth, 'The Importance of Purposes in "Purposive" Groups: Incentives and Participation in the Sanctuary Movement', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 447-63.
16. James Q. Wilson, Political Organizations (New York: Basic Books, 1973); David Knoke, 'Incentives in Collective Action Organizations', American Sociological Review, 53 (1988), 311-29; Anne Hildreth, 'The Importance of Purposes in "Purposive" Groups: Incentives and Participation in the Sanctuary Movement', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 447-63.
17. Knoke, 'Incentives in Collective Action Organizations'; Jan E. Leighley, 'Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 447-63.
18. Knoke, 'Incentives in Collective Action Organizations'; Jan E. Leighley, 'Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 447-63.
19. Verba and Nie, Participation in America; Leighley, 'Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation'.
20. Verba and Nie, Participation in America; Leighley, 'Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation'.
21. Jan E. Leighley, 'Attitudes, Opportunities and Incentives: A Review Essay on Political Participation', Political Research Quarterly, 48 (1995), 181-200;Leighley, 'Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation'.
22. Jan E. Leighley, 'Attitudes, Opportunities and Incentives: A Review Essay on Political Participation', Political Research Quarterly, 48 (1995), 181-200;Leighley, 'Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation'.
23. Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America (New York: Macmillan, 1993), pp. 30-6.
24. E. E. Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People (Hinsdale, 111.: Dryden Press, 1960), p. 2.
25. Leighley, 'Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation'; Rosenstone and Hansen, Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America.
26. Leighley, 'Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation'; Rosenstone and Hansen, Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America.
27. Key, Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups, p. 128.
28. Key, Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups, pp. 128-9.
29. Kay L. Schlozman and John T. Tierney, Organized Interests in American Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1986), pp. 212-15.
30. Schlozman and Tierney, Organized Interests in American Democracy, pp. 216-17.
31. Schlozman and Tierney, Organized Interests in American Democracy, p. 218.
32. Latus, 'Assessing Ideological PACs'.
33. Maisel, Parties and Elections in America, p. 133.
34. Maisel, Parties and Elections in America, p. 142.
35. Ronald B. Rapaport, Walter J. Stone and Alan I. Abramowitz, 'Do Endorsements Matter? Group Influence in the 1984 Democratic Caucuses', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 193-203.
36. Rapaport, Stone and Abramowitz, 'Do Endorsements Matter?' p. 201.
37. This information is obtained from the data provided by the NRA. The budget estimate is obtained by multiplying the number of members by the price of an annual membership.
38. Wayne LaPierre, Guns, Crime, and Freedom (Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing, 1994), p. 7.
39. The data provided by the NRA include the ratings of congressional candidates made in each congressional district, the endorsements in those districts, and the number of NRA members that reside in each district. The ratings and endorsements are published in The American Rifleman and The American Hunter and can thus be freely obtained by any interested individual, The NRA has asked that we not release the membership numbers by congressional district at this time. We are working to secure the release of these data to interested scholars at some point in the future.
40. 'NRA-PVF Candidate Endorsement 1994', The American Rifleman (October 1994), 44-5.
41. The 330 cases for 1994 and the 364 cases for 1996 represent races where an incumbent from one of the two major parties faced a challenger from one of the two major parties. In 1994, the 105 cases that were lost include the seven districts in Louisiana (all races were decided in the primary stage), fifty-two open seats, thirty-one races where the incumbent ran unopposed, fourteen races where an incumbent defeated a third-party candidate or grouping of 'other' candidates, and one independent (Vermont). In 1996, the seventy-one missing cases include fifty-three open seats, thirteen races where candidates ran unopposed (including the one independent from Vermont), three races where an incumbent faced a third-party candidate or grouping of 'other' candidates, and two districts in Louisiana where no general election took place.
42. Gary Jacobson, 'The Effects of Campaign Spending in Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 72 (1978), 469-91.
43. Jacobson, 'The Effects of Campaign Spending in Congressional Elections'.
44. Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1996 (Washington, D.C.: National Journal, 1995); Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1998 (Washington, D.C.: National Journal, 1997).
45. Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1996 (Washington, D.C.: National Journal, 1995); Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1998 (Washington, D.C.: National Journal, 1997).
46. The difference in the number of cases between these subsequent tables and Tables 1a and 1b are the result of missing values for the Challenger Party Strength variable.
47. One potential problem with this estimation strategy is the decision to treat endorsements as fixed, that is, as exogenous rather than endogenous variables. If groups such as the NRA act strategically when giving out these endorsements, then this decision is almost certainly wrong. While the NRA claims to rely exclusively on their ratings when considering whether to make endorsements, it seems likely that other considerations come into play. We have investigated this possibility in a separate effort (Christopher Kenny and Michael McBurnett, 'Group Influence in the Electoral Process: A Model of the Role of the NRA in Recent House Elections? (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, Ga., 1999)) and found that treating the endorsement as endogenous (modelling it as a separate equation) makes little difference in terms of the size of the effect. If anything, it slightly increases the size of the endorsement effect, making our estimates of endorsement effects rather conservative.
48. Barone and Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1996; Barone and Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1998.
49. Barone and Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1996; Barone and Ujifusa, The Almanac of American Politics 1998.
50. Key, Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups