Briefing: Using opinion polls to evaluate Kenyan politics, March 2004-January 2005

African Affairs

Volumn 104, Issue 415, 2005, Pages 325-336

  Branch, Daniel ^a   Cheeseman, Nic ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b KING'S COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

NATIONAL POLITICS;

EID: 17844387850     PISSN: 00019909     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adi037     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. At the time of the election NARC included, among others, the Democratic Party, FORD-Kenya, the National Party of Kenya and the Liberal Democratic Party. For further details of the building of the coalition see W. O. Oyugi, P. Wanyande and C. Odhiambo Mbai, The Politics of Transition in Kenya: From KANU to NARC (Heinrich Böll, Nairobi, 2003).
2. D. M. Anderson, 'Briefing: Kenya's elections 2002 - the dawning of anew era?', African Affairs 102, 407 (2003), pp. 331-42;
3. T. Wolf, C. Logan and J. Owiti, 'A new dawn? Popular optimism in Kenya after the transition', www.afrobarometer.org, (2004).
4. Gallup International, 'End of year survey' (2002), www.gallup-international.com.
5. For recent coverage see The Standard, www.eastandard.net;
6. Daily Nation, www.natiomnedia.com/dailynation/;
7. and Kenya Times, www.kentimes.com.
8. 'Clash killers will face the law', Daily Nation, 25 January 2005.
9. See Afrobarometer website, www.afrobarometer.org
10. 'Kenya election: Where are the opinion polls?', Daily Nation, 17 June 2002.
11. P. Kiage and D. Makali, 'Opinion polling comes of age as election results confirm predictions', The Media Institute Nairobi website, 2003, http://www.kenyanews.com/exp24/psto_34.html.
12. In the presidential election the polls predicted the result within a 5 percent margin of error. They overestimated the support for Mwai Kibaki by 4.1 percent and underestimated the support for Uhuru Kenyatta by 4.1 percent.
13. The division between rural and urban areas is problematic for political scientists. However, these categories have been used to sample population by opinion pollsters and such terminology must therefore be used here in order to report faithfully and discuss their findings.
14. 'How Kenyans rate Kibaki on the job', The Standard, 3 April 2004.
15. Kenya Times, 10 July 2004.
16. UNICEF press release, 18 February 2004,www.unicef.org/media/ media_19262.html.
17. 'State releases Sh2.5 billion for free education', The Standard, 23 December 2004.
18. Gallup International, 'End of year poll' (2000-2003), www.gallup-international.com.
19. 'Kibaki upbeat about new economic opportunities', Sunday Standard, 2 January 2005.
20. Government performance ratings are calculated by asking individuals to rate government performance and then using these ratings to generate an overall percentage rating out of 100.
21. 'Leaders react to verdict of Steadman polls', The Standard, 11 July 2004.
22. 'The gist of Ngilu-Kalonzo talks', Daily Nation, 26 January 2005.