Political knowledge and enlightened preferences: Party choice through the electoral cycle

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 35, Issue 2, 2005, Pages 285-302

  Andersen, Robert ^a,b   Tilley, James ^c   Heath, Anthony F ^d,e  

^a MCMASTER UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b Ctr Res Elections Social Trends   (United Kingdom)

^c NUFFIELD COLLEGE   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^e CREST ^*

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 16644394584     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123405000153     Document Type: Article

References (53)

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2. Paul F. Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson and Hazel Gaudet, The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign (New York:, Columbia University Press, 1944); Bernard R. Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld and William N. McPhee, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1954).
3. Bernard C. Cohen. The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, 1963); Thomas E. Patterson, The Mass Media Election: How Americans Choose Their President (New York: Praeger, 1980); Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald L. Shaw, 'The Agenda-Setting Function of the Mass Media', Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (1972), 176-87; Pippa Norris, John Curtice, David Sanders, Margaret Scammel and Holli A. Semetko, On Message: Communicating the Campaign (London: Sage, 1999); S. Iyengar and D. Kinder, News That Matters (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987); J. Krosnick and D. Kinder, 'Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming', American Political Science Review, 84 (1990), 497-512.
4. Bernard C. Cohen. The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, 1963); Thomas E. Patterson, The Mass Media Election: How Americans Choose Their President (New York: Praeger, 1980); Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald L. Shaw, 'The Agenda-Setting Function of the Mass Media', Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (1972), 176-87; Pippa Norris, John Curtice, David Sanders, Margaret Scammel and Holli A. Semetko, On Message: Communicating the Campaign (London: Sage, 1999); S. Iyengar and D. Kinder, News That Matters (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987); J. Krosnick and D. Kinder, 'Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming', American Political Science Review, 84 (1990), 497-512.
5. Bernard C. Cohen. The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, 1963); Thomas E. Patterson, The Mass Media Election: How Americans Choose Their President (New York: Praeger, 1980); Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald L. Shaw, 'The Agenda-Setting Function of the Mass Media', Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (1972), 176-87; Pippa Norris, John Curtice, David Sanders, Margaret Scammel and Holli A. Semetko, On Message: Communicating the Campaign (London: Sage, 1999); S. Iyengar and D. Kinder, News That Matters (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987); J. Krosnick and D. Kinder, 'Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming', American Political Science Review, 84 (1990), 497-512.
6. Bernard C. Cohen. The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, 1963); Thomas E. Patterson, The Mass Media Election: How Americans Choose Their President (New York: Praeger, 1980); Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald L. Shaw, 'The Agenda-Setting Function of the Mass Media', Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (1972), 176-87; Pippa Norris, John Curtice, David Sanders, Margaret Scammel and Holli A. Semetko, On Message: Communicating the Campaign (London: Sage, 1999); S. Iyengar and D. Kinder, News That Matters (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987); J. Krosnick and D. Kinder, 'Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming', American Political Science Review, 84 (1990), 497-512.
7. Bernard C. Cohen. The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, 1963); Thomas E. Patterson, The Mass Media Election: How Americans Choose Their President (New York: Praeger, 1980); Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald L. Shaw, 'The Agenda-Setting Function of the Mass Media', Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (1972), 176-87; Pippa Norris, John Curtice, David Sanders, Margaret Scammel and Holli A. Semetko, On Message: Communicating the Campaign (London: Sage, 1999); S. Iyengar and D. Kinder, News That Matters (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987); J. Krosnick and D. Kinder, 'Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming', American Political Science Review, 84 (1990), 497-512.
8. Bernard C. Cohen. The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, 1963); Thomas E. Patterson, The Mass Media Election: How Americans Choose Their President (New York: Praeger, 1980); Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald L. Shaw, 'The Agenda-Setting Function of the Mass Media', Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (1972), 176-87; Pippa Norris, John Curtice, David Sanders, Margaret Scammel and Holli A. Semetko, On Message: Communicating the Campaign (London: Sage, 1999); S. Iyengar and D. Kinder, News That Matters (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987); J. Krosnick and D. Kinder, 'Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming', American Political Science Review, 84 (1990), 497-512.
9. Dhavan V. Shah, Mark D. Watts, David Domke, David P. Fan and Michael Fibison, 'News Coverage, Economic Cues, and the Public's Presidential Preferences, 1984-1996', Journal of Politics, 61 (1999), 914-43; Marc J. Hetherington, "The Media's Role in Forming Voters' National Economic Evaluations in 1992', American Journal of Political Science, 40 (1996), 372-95; Joseph Wagner, 'Media Do Make a Difference: The Differential Impact of Mass Media in the 1976 Presidential Race', American Journal of Political Science, 27 (1983), 407-30.
10. Dhavan V. Shah, Mark D. Watts, David Domke, David P. Fan and Michael Fibison, 'News Coverage, Economic Cues, and the Public's Presidential Preferences, 1984-1996', Journal of Politics, 61 (1999), 914-43; Marc J. Hetherington, "The Media's Role in Forming Voters' National Economic Evaluations in 1992', American Journal of Political Science, 40 (1996), 372-95; Joseph Wagner, 'Media Do Make a Difference: The Differential Impact of Mass Media in the 1976 Presidential Race', American Journal of Political Science, 27 (1983), 407-30.
11. Dhavan V. Shah, Mark D. Watts, David Domke, David P. Fan and Michael Fibison, 'News Coverage, Economic Cues, and the Public's Presidential Preferences, 1984-1996', Journal of Politics, 61 (1999), 914-43; Marc J. Hetherington, "The Media's Role in Forming Voters' National Economic Evaluations in 1992', American Journal of Political Science, 40 (1996), 372-95; Joseph Wagner, 'Media Do Make a Difference: The Differential Impact of Mass Media in the 1976 Presidential Race', American Journal of Political Science, 27 (1983), 407-30.
12. Steven F. Finkel, 'Reexamining the "Minimal Effects" Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns', Journal of Politics, 55 (1993), 1-21; Steven F. Finkel and Peter R. Schrott, 'Campaign Effects on Voter Choice in the German Election of 1990', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 349-77.
13. Steven F. Finkel, 'Reexamining the "Minimal Effects" Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns', Journal of Politics, 55 (1993), 1-21; Steven F. Finkel and Peter R. Schrott, 'Campaign Effects on Voter Choice in the German Election of 1990', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 349-77.
14. Andrew Gelman and Gary King, 'Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?', British Journal of Political Science, 23 (1993), 409-51.
15. Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960); Gregory B. Markus, 'Political Attitudes During an Election Year: A Report on the 1980 NES Panel Study', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 538-60; John R. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
16. Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960); Gregory B. Markus, 'Political Attitudes During an Election Year: A Report on the 1980 NES Panel Study', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 538-60; John R. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
17. Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960); Gregory B. Markus, 'Political Attitudes During an Election Year: A Report on the 1980 NES Panel Study', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 538-60; John R. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
18. Robert Andersen, 'Do Newspapers Enlighten Preferences? Personal Ideology, Party Choice, and the Electoral Cycle: The United Kingdom, 1992-97', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 36 (2003), 601-20.
19. John R. Zaller, 'Information, Values and Opinion', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 1215-37; Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion; B. I. Page and R. Shapiro, The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992); M. Delli Carpini and S. Keeter, What Americans Know about Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996).
20. John R. Zaller, 'Information, Values and Opinion', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 1215-37; Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion; B. I. Page and R. Shapiro, The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992); M. Delli Carpini and S. Keeter, What Americans Know about Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996).
21. John R. Zaller, 'Information, Values and Opinion', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 1215-37; Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion; B. I. Page and R. Shapiro, The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992); M. Delli Carpini and S. Keeter, What Americans Know about Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996).
22. John R. Zaller, 'Information, Values and Opinion', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 1215-37; Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion; B. I. Page and R. Shapiro, The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992); M. Delli Carpini and S. Keeter, What Americans Know about Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996).
23. A. Lupia, 'Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 63-76; Larry Bartels, 'Uninformed Votes: Information Effects in Presidential Elections', American Journal of Political Science, 40 (1996), 194-230; A. Lupia and M. D. McCubbins, The Democratic Dilemma (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
24. A. Lupia, 'Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 63-76; Larry Bartels, 'Uninformed Votes: Information Effects in Presidential Elections', American Journal of Political Science, 40 (1996), 194-230; A. Lupia and M. D. McCubbins, The Democratic Dilemma (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
25. A. Lupia, 'Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 63-76; Larry Bartels, 'Uninformed Votes: Information Effects in Presidential Elections', American Journal of Political Science, 40 (1996), 194-230; A. Lupia and M. D. McCubbins, The Democratic Dilemma (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
26. See for example, J. Fishkin, The Voice of the People (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1997); J. Fishkin, Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1999).
27. See for example, J. Fishkin, The Voice of the People (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1997); J. Fishkin, Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1999).
28. John Battle, 'Political Awareness and Heterogeneity in Models of Voting: Some Evidence from the British Election Surveys', British Elections and Parties Review, 7 (1997), 1-22; Robert Andersen, Anthony F. Heath and Richard Sinnott, 'Political Knowledge and Electoral Choice', British Elections & Parties Review, 12 (2002), 11-27; James R. Tilley and Anthony F. Heath, 'Political Knowledge and Values in Britain' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, 2003).
29. John Battle, 'Political Awareness and Heterogeneity in Models of Voting: Some Evidence from the British Election Surveys', British Elections and Parties Review, 7 (1997), 1-22; Robert Andersen, Anthony F. Heath and Richard Sinnott, 'Political Knowledge and Electoral Choice', British Elections & Parties Review, 12 (2002), 11-27; James R. Tilley and Anthony F. Heath, 'Political Knowledge and Values in Britain' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, 2003).
30. John Battle, 'Political Awareness and Heterogeneity in Models of Voting: Some Evidence from the British Election Surveys', British Elections and Parties Review, 7 (1997), 1-22; Robert Andersen, Anthony F. Heath and Richard Sinnott, 'Political Knowledge and Electoral Choice', British Elections & Parties Review, 12 (2002), 11-27; James R. Tilley and Anthony F. Heath, 'Political Knowledge and Values in Britain' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, 2003).
31. Andersen, 'Do Newspapers Enlighten Preferences?'
32. The only disadvantage of using the European integration question is that it was asked only of half of the sample in 1997, resulting in a reduced sample size for the first BEPS. Nonetheless, there were no other appropriate questions that were asked identically to all respondents through both electoral cycles. Moreover, the results presented here are consistent with results from similar models excluding the Europe item.
33. Andersen et al., 'Political Knowledge and Electoral Choice'.
34. For example, Stacey B. Gordon and Gary M. Segura, 'Cross-National Variation in the Political Sophistication of Individuals: Capability or Choice? ' Journal of Politics, 59 (1997), 126-47.
35. Ian Budge, 'Party Policy and Ideology: Reversing the 1950s?' in Geoff Evans and Pippa Norris, eds, Critical Elections: British Parties and Voters in Long-term Perspective (London: Sage, 1999); Judith Bara and Ian Budge, 'Party Policy and Ideology: Still New Labour?' Parliamentary Affairs, 54 (2001), 590-306.
36. Ian Budge, 'Party Policy and Ideology: Reversing the 1950s?' in Geoff Evans and Pippa Norris, eds, Critical Elections: British Parties and Voters in Long-term Perspective (London: Sage, 1999); Judith Bara and Ian Budge, 'Party Policy and Ideology: Still New Labour?' Parliamentary Affairs, 54 (2001), 590-306.
37. For manifesto analysis, see Budge, 'Party Policy and Ideology'. For expert survey data, see Michael Laver and W. Ben Hunt, Policy and Party Competition (London: Routledge 1992).
38. For manifesto analysis, see Budge, 'Party Policy and Ideology'. For expert survey data, see Michael Laver and W. Ben Hunt, Policy and Party Competition (London: Routledge 1992).
39. Anthony F. Heath, Roger M. Jowell and John K. Curtice, The Rise of New Labour (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001).
40. The precise timing of this shift during the 1992-97 electoral cycle is not vital for any of our analysis here, and none of our findings would be radically different if we chose 1994 or 1996 as the year in which Labour and the Liberal Democrats swapped positions on this issue.
41. Michael Laver, 'Party Policy in Britain: Results from an Expert Survey', Political Studies, 46 (1998), 336-47.
42. Bara and Budge, 'Party Policy and Ideology'.
43. The resulting scale shows a reassuring relationship with a traditional measure of broader political knowledge based on civics knowledge. During the first waves of the 1992-97 and 1997-2001 survey respondents were asked a series of questions concerning the party of a major politician, the number of MPs, time between general elections, type of electoral system used in Britain, membership of parliamentary committees, and finally whether general and European elections were separate or not. In 1992 the correlation between this measure and our measure here was 0.37; in 1997 the correlation was 0.43.
44. Respondents are divided into three categories, those that said they paid 'a great deal' or 'quite a bit' of attention to politics news coverage are assumed to have high attention, those that paid 'some' attention are the middle category, and those that paid a 'little' or 'no' attention are the low attention group. People that did not read a newspaper, or watched television news less than four days a week are not included in Figure 2.
45. Parameter estimates for these models are available on request from the authors. They are not reported here because they are not important to this particular analysis. Selected estimates from Model 2 are reported later.
46. Andersen, 'Do Newspapers Enlighten Preferences?'
47. Samuel Kernell, 'Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 44-66. See also, Robert Erikson, 'The Puzzle of Mid-term Loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29; Richard R. Lau, 'Two Explanations of Negativity Effects in Political Behavior', American Journal of Political Science, 29 (1985), 119-38.
48. Samuel Kernell, 'Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 44-66. See also, Robert Erikson, 'The Puzzle of Mid-term Loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29; Richard R. Lau, 'Two Explanations of Negativity Effects in Political Behavior', American Journal of Political Science, 29 (1985), 119-38.
49. Samuel Kernell, 'Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 44-66. See also, Robert Erikson, 'The Puzzle of Mid-term Loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29; Richard R. Lau, 'Two Explanations of Negativity Effects in Political Behavior', American Journal of Political Science, 29 (1985), 119-38.
50. Angus Campbell, 'Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change', in Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald Stokes, eds, Elections and the Political Order (New York: Wiley, 1966).
51. Richard Born, 'Strategic Politicians and Unresponsive Voters', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 599-612; Edward R. Tufte, 'Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 812-26.
52. Richard Born, 'Strategic Politicians and Unresponsive Voters', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 599-612; Edward R. Tufte, 'Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 812-26.
53. Karl Reif and Hermann Schmitt, 'Nine Second-Order National Elections: A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results', European Journal of Political Research, 8 (1980), 3-44.