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A very similar approach was used by Carter
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A very similar approach was used by Carter 4, Leslie 5 and Gott 6 to estimate the expected lifetime of our species. Gott also applied it to estimate the lifetimes of various political and economic structures, including the journal “Nature” where his article was published.
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A careful treatment of the variation of (Formula presented) in the case of a flat universe with a cosmological constant has been given by Martel, Shapiro and Weinberg (MSW) who calculated the fraction of clustered matter (Formula presented) to find an anthropic probability distribution for (Formula presented)
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A careful treatment of the variation of (Formula presented) in the case of a flat universe with a cosmological constant has been given by Martel, Shapiro and Weinberg (MSW) who calculated the fraction of clustered matter (Formula presented) to find an anthropic probability distribution for (Formula presented) 20. They considered density fluctuations having the form of a spherical overdense region surrounded by a compensating spherical underdense shell, with a fixed ratio s of overdense to underdense volumes, and calculated (Formula presented) using the exact collapse criterion for such fluctuations. MSW emphasize that their results are insensitive to the choice of s. Now, we note that for large s, the formula they obtained for (Formula presented) their Eq. (26), reduces to the Press-Schechter formula (23) that we use here, with (Formula presented). This indicates that Press-Schechter formalism would be an adequate approximation in MSW problem as well.
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