Multiple facets of risk for violence: The impact of judgmental specificity on structured decisions about violence risk

International Journal of Forensic Mental Health

Volumn 2, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 19-34

  Douglas, Kevin S ^a   Ogloff, James R P ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA   (United States)

^b MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 1542308282     PISSN: 14999013     EISSN: 19329903     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/14999013.2003.10471176     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Andreason, N. C., McDonald-Scott, P., Grove, W. M., Keller, M. D., Shapiro, R. W., & Hirschfeld, R. M. A. (1982). Assessment of reliability in multi-center collaborative research using a videotape approach. American Journal of Psychiatry, 139, 876-882.
2. Borum, R. (1996). Improving the clinical practice of violence risk assessment: Technology, guidelines, and training. American Psychologist, 51, 945-956.
3. Brunswick, E. (1956). Perception and the representative design of psychological experiments. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press
4. Buchanan, A. (2001). [Review of the book, HCR-20: Assessing risk for violence, Version 2]. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 11, S77-S89
5. Cicchetti, D. V., & Sparrow, S. A. (1981). Developing criteria for establishing interrater reliability of specific items: Applications to assessment of adaptive behavior. American Journal of Mental Deficiency, 86, 127-137.
6. Cornell, D., Warren, J., Hawk, G., Stafford, E., Oram, G., & Pine, D. (1996). Psychopathy in instrumental and reactive violent offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 64, 783-790.
7. Dawes, R. M. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34, 571-582.
8. Dawes, R. M., & Corrigan, B. (1974). Linear models in decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 81, 95-106.
9. Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243, 1668-1674.
10. Dempster, R. J. (1998). Prediction of sexually violent recidivism: A comparison of risk assessment instruments. Unpublished master’s thesis. Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
11. Devine, D. J., & Kozlowski, S. W. J. (1995). Domain-specific knowledge and task characteristic in decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 64, 294-306
12. de Vogel, V. (2002, March). Interrater reliability and predictive validity of the SVR-20 and the Static-99: A retrospective study. In M. Dernevik (Chair), Using structured clinical risk assessment and management in Europe: The ENSRA Network. Symposium presented at the annual meeting of the International Association of Forensic Mental Health Services. Munich, Germany
13. Dolan, M., & Doyle, M. (2000). Violence risk prediction: Clinical and actuarial measures and the role of the Psychopathy Checklist. British Journal of Psychiatry, 177, 303-311.
14. Douglas, K. S. (2001, November). The reliability and validity of structured professional judgments using the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Paper presented at the International Conference, Violence Risk Assessment and Management: Bringing Science and Practice Closer Together, Sundsvall, Sweden
15. Douglas, K. S., Cox, D. N., & Webster, C. D. (1999). Violence risk assessment: Science and practice. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 4, 149-184.
16. Douglas, K. S., & Kropp, P. R. (2002). A prevention-based paradigm for violence risk assessment: Clinical and research applications. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 29, 617-658.
17. Douglas, K. S., Ogloff, J. R. P., & Hart, S. D. (2003). Reliability and validity of clinical decisions regarding violence risk made using the HCR-20: A test of the structured professional judgment approach to risk assessment. Manuscript under review
18. Douglas, K. S., Ogloff, J. R. P., Nicholls, T. L. & Grant, I. (1999). Assessing risk for violence among psychiatric patients: The HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 67, 917-930.
19. Douglas, K. S., & Webster, C. D. (1999). The HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme: Concurrent validity in a sample of incarcerated offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 26, 3-19.
20. Douglas, K. S., Webster, C. D., Hart, S. D., Eaves, D., & Ogloff, J. R. P. (Eds.). (2001). HCR-20 violence risk management companion guide. Burnaby, BC/Tampa, FL: Mental Health Law and Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University/ Department of Mental Health Law & Policy, University of South Florida
21. Dvoskin, J. A., & Heilbrun, K. (2001). Risk assessment and release decision-making: Toward resolving the great debate. Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 29, 6-10.
22. Ennis, B. J., & Litwack, T. R. (1974). Psychiatry and the presumption of expertise: Flipping coins in the courtroom. California Law Review, 62, 693-752.
23. Estroff, S. E., & Zimmer, C. (1994). Social networks, social support, and violence among persons with severe, persistent mental illness. In J. Monahan & H. J. Steadman (Eds.), Violence and mental disorder: Developments in risk assessment (pp. 259-295). Chicago, Ill: University of Chicago Press
24. Goldberg, L. R. (1970). Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving clinical inferences. Psychological Bulletin, 1970, 422-432.
25. Gretton, H., & Abramowitz, C. (2002, March). The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): Comparing contributions of SAVRY items to clinical risk estimates and criminal outcomes. In P. Bartel (Chair), The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): The validity and application of risk assessment in violent youth. Symposium presented at the biennial meeting of the American Psychology-Law Society (Div. 41, APA), Austin, TX
26. Grove, W. M., & Meehl, P. E. (1996). Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 293-323.
27. Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A metaanalysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19-30.
28. Hammond, K. R., Hursch, C. J., & Todd, F. J. (1964). Analyzing the components of clinical inference. Psychological Review, 71, 438-456.
29. Hare, R. D. (1991). Manual for the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. Toronto: Multi-Health Systems
30. Hart, S. D. (1998). The role of psychopathy in assessing risk for violence: Conceptual and methodological issues. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 3, 121-137.
31. Hart, S. D. (2001a). Complexity, uncertainty, and the reconceptualization of risk assessment [On-line]. Available: http://www.sfu.ca/psychology/groups/faculty/hart
32. Hart, S. D. (2001b). Assessing and managing violence risk. In K. S. Douglas, C. D. Webster, S. D. Hart, D. Eaves, & J. R. P. Ogloff (Eds.), HCR-20 violence risk management companion guide (pp. 13-25). Burnaby, BC/Tampa, FL: Mental Health Law and Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University/Department of Mental Health Law & Policy, University of South Florida
33. Heilbrun, K. (1997). Prediction versus management models relevant to risk assessment: The importance of legal decision-making context. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 347-359.
34. Kropp, P. R., & Hart, S. D. (2000). The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA) Guide: Reliability and validity in adult male offenders. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 101-118.
35. Kropp, P. R., Hart, S. D., Webster, C. D., & Eaves, D. (1999). Manual for the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (3rd ed.). Toronto, ON: Multi-Health Systems
36. Landis, J., & Koch, G. G. (1977). The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics, 33, 159-174.
37. Lidz, C. W., Mulvey, E. P., & Gardner, W. (1993). The accuracy of predictions of violence to others. Journal of the American Medical Association, 269, 1007-1111.
38. Litwack, T. R. (2001). Actuarial versus clinical assessments of dangerousness. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 7, 409-443
39. Lyon, D. R., Hart, S. D., & Webster, C. D. (2001). Violence risk assessment. In R. Schuller & J. R. P. Ogloff (Eds.), Law and psychology: Canadian perspectives (pp. 314-350). Toronto: University of Toronto Press
40. McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1987). Predictive validity of judgments of dangerousness in emergency civil commitment. American Journal of Psychiatry, 144, 197-200.
41. McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1989). Relationship between preadmission threats and later violent behavior by acute psychiatric inpatients. Hospital and Community Psychiatry, 40, 605-608.
42. McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1991). Clinical assessment of the risk of violence among psychiatric inpatients. American Journal of Psychiatry, 148, 1317-1321.
43. McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1994a). The relationship between acute psychiatric symptoms, diagnosis, and short-term risk of violence. Hospital and Community Psychiatry, 45, 133-137
44. McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1994b). Screening for risk of inpatient violence: Validation of an actuarial tool. Law and Human Behavior, 18, 579-586.
45. McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1995). Correlates of accuracy in the assessment of psychiatric inpatients’ risk of violence. American Journal of Psychiatry, 152, 901-906.
46. McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L., & Greenfield, T. K. (1988). Predictors of violence in civilly committed acute psychiatric patients. American Journal of Psychiatry, 145, 965-970.
47. McNiel, D. E., Lam, J. N., & Binder, R. L. (2000). Relevance of interrater agreement to violence risk assessment. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 68, 111-1115.
48. Meehl, P. E. (1954). Clinical versus statistical prediction. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press
49. Melton, G. B., Petrila, J., Poythress, N. G., & Slobogin, C. (1997). Psychological evaluations for the courts: A handbook for mental health professionals and lawyers (2nd ed.). New York: Guilford
50. Monahan, J. (1981). Predicting violent behavior: An assessment of clinical techniques. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage
51. Monahan, J., Steadman, H. J., Appelbaum, P. S., Robbins, P. C., Mulvey, E. P., Silver, E., Roth, L. H., & Grisso, T. (2000). Developing a clinically useful actuarial tool for assessing violence risk. British Journal of Psychiatry, 176, 312-319.
52. Monahan, J., Steadman, H. J., Silver, E., Appelbaum, P. S., Robbins, P. C., Mulvey, E. P., Roth, L. H., Grisso, T., & Banks, S. (2001). Rethinking risk assessment: The MacArthur study of mental disorder and violence. New York: Oxford University Press
53. Mossman, D. (2000). Evaluating violence risk ‘by the book’: A review of HCR-20: Assessing risk for violence, Version 2 and The manual for the sexual violence risk – 20. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 18, 781-789.
54. Mullen, P. E. (2000). Dangerousness, risk, and the prediction of probability. In M. G. Gelder, J. J. Lopez-Ibor, & N. Andreasen (Eds.), New Oxford textbook of psychiatry (Vol. 2, pp. 2066–2078). Oxford: Oxford University Press
55. Mulvey, E. P., & Lidz, C. W. (1984). Clinical considerations in the prediction of dangerousness in mental patients. Clinical Psychology Review, 4, 379-401.
56. Mulvey, E. P., & Lidz, C. W. (1995). Conditional prediction: A model for research on dangerousness to others in a new era. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 18, 129-143.
57. Otto, R. K. (2000). Assessing and managing violence risk in outpatient settings. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 56, 1239-1262.
58. Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Luce, M. F. (1998). Behavioral decision research: An overview. In M. Birnbaum (Ed.), Measurement, judgment, and decision making: Handbook of perception and cognition (2nd ed., pp. 303-359). San Diego, CA: Academic Press
59. Quinsey, V. L., & Ambtman, R. (1979). Variables affecting psychiatrists’ and teachers’ assessments of the dangerousness of mentally ill offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 47, 353-362.
60. Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, G. T., & Cormier, C. A. (1998). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association
61. Ross, D. J., Hart, S. D., Eaves, D., & Webster, C. D. (1999, November). The relationship between the HCR-20 and BC Review Board decisions on the release of forensic psychiatric inpatients. Paper presented at the International Conference on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
62. Shah, S. A. (1978). Dangerousness and mental illness: Some conceptual, prediction, and policy dilemmas. In C. Frederick (Ed.), Dangerous behavior: A problem in law and mental health (pp. 153-191). Washington, DC: Government Printing Office
63. Silver, E., Mulvey, E. P., & Monahan, J. (1999). Assessing violence risk among discharged psychiatric patients: Toward an ecological approach. Law and Human Behavior, 23, 237-255.
64. Skeem, J. L., Mulvey, E. P., & Lidz, C. W. (2000). Building mental health professionals’ decisional models into tests of predictive validity: The accuracy of contextualized predictions of violence. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 607-628
65. Skeem, J. L., Mulvey, E. P., Lidz, C. W., Gardner, W., & Schubert, C. (2002). Identifying psychiatric patients at risk for repeated involvement in violence: The next step toward intensive community treatment programs. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 1, 155-170.
66. Steadman, H. J., & Cocozza, J. (1974). Careers of the criminally insane. Lexington, MA: Lexington
67. Steadman, H. J., Silver, E., Monahan, J., Appelbaum, P. S., Robbins, P. C., Mulvey, E. P., Grisso, T., Roth, L. H., & Banks, S. (2000). A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 83-100.
68. Vlek, C. (1984). What constitutes a good decision? Acta Psychologica, 56, 5-27.
69. Webster, C. D., Douglas, K. S., Eaves, D., & Hart, S. D. (1997). HCR-20: Assessing Risk for Violence (Version 2). Burnaby, BC: Mental Health, Law, and Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University
70. Werner, P. D., Rose, T. L., & Yesavage, J. A. (1983). Reliability, accuracy, and decision-making strategy in clinical predictions of imminent dangerousness. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 51, 815-825.
71. Witt, P. H. (2000). A practitioner’s view of risk assessment: The HCR-20 and SVR-20. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 18, 791-798.