Verification of operational cool-season tornado threat-area forecasts from mesoscale NWP and a probabilistic forecast product

Australian Meteorological Magazine

Volumn 53, Issue 4, 2004, Pages 269-277

  Mills, Graham A ^a  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING METHOD; MODELING; TORNADO; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 15244348328     PISSN: 00049743     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (12)

1. Ebert, E.E. and McBride, J.L. 1997. Methods for verifying quantitative precipitation forecasts: application to the BMRC LAPS model 24-hour precipitation forecasts. BMRC Techniques Development Report No.2. Available from BMRC, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, Vic. 3001, Australia. 87pp.
2. Hanstrum, B.N., Mills, G.A., Watson, A., Monteverdi, J.P. and Doswell, C.A. 2002. The cool-season tornadoes of California and Southern Australia. Weath. forecasting, 17, 705-22.
3. Hanstrum, B.N. 2003. A national NWP-based thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm forecasting guidance system. In "Current issues in the parameterisation of convection": extended abstracts of presentations at the fifteenth annual BMRC Modelling Workshop 13-16 October 2003. P.J. Meighen and A.J. Hollis, Eds. Pp7-11. BMRC Research Report No. 93. Available from BMRC, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, Vic. 3001, Australia. 124pp.
4. Johns, R.H., Davies, J.M. and Leftwich, P.W. 1993. Some wind and instability parameters associated with strong and violent tornadoes. 2: Variations in the combinations of wind instability parameters. The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction, and Hazards, C. Church, D. Burgess, C. Doswell, and R. Davies-Jones (eds). Geophys. Monogr. 79 Amer. Geophys. Union, 583-90.
5. Lalaurette, E. 2003. Early detection of abnormal weather conditions using a probabilistic extreme forecast index. Q. Jl R. Met. Soc., 129, 3037-57.
6. Lipari, G.S. and Monteverdi, J.P. 2000. Convective and shear parameters associated with northern and central California tornadoes during the period 1990-94. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 518-521.
7. Mason, I.B. 2003. Binary Events. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. I.T. Jolliffe and D.B. Stevenson (eds), Wiley.
8. Mason, S.J. and Graham, N.E. 1999. Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels. Weath. forecasting, 14, 713-25.
9. Mills, G.A. 2004. Verification of operational NWP model cool-season tornado threat area forecasts in Australia. BMRC Research Report No. 103. Available from BMRC, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, Vic. 3001, Australia. 114pp.
10. Mills, G.A. and Colquhoun, J.R. 1998. Objective prediction of severe thunderstorm environments: linking a decision tree with an operational regional NWP model. Weath. forecasting, 13, 1078-92.
11. Puri, K., Dietachmeyer, G.D., Mills, G.A., Davidson, N.E., Bowen, R.A. and Logan, L.W. 1998. The new BMRC Limited Area Prediction System, LAPS. Aust. Met. Mag., 47, 203-23.
12. Thompson, R.L., Edwards, R. and Hart, J.A. 2002. Evaluation and interpretation of the Supercell Composite and the Significant Tornado Parameters at the Storm Prediction Centre. Preprints, 19th Conference on Weather analysis and Forecasting and 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. Amer. Met. Soc. August 2002,J11-J14.