Causal inference using potential outcomes: Design, modeling, decisions

Journal of the American Statistical Association

Volumn 100, Issue 469, 2005, Pages 322-331

  Rubin, Donald B ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Analysis of covariance; Assignment mechanism; Assignment based causal inference; Bayesian inference; Direct causal effects; Fieller Creasy; Fisher; Neyman; Observational studies; Principal stratification; Randomized experiments; Rubin causal model

Indexed keywords

EID: 14944344423     PISSN: 01621459     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1198/016214504000001880     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Angrist, J. D., Imbens, G. W., and Rubin, D. B. (1996), "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables" (with discussion), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 444-472.
2. Anscombe, F. J. (1948), "The Validity of Comparative Experiments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. A, 61, 181-211.
3. Brillinger, D. R., Jones, L. V., and Tukey, J. W. (1978), "Report of the Statistical Task Force for the Weather Modification Advisory Board," in The Management of Western Resources, Vol. II: The Role of Statistics on Weather Resources Management, Stock No. 003-018-00091-1, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
4. Chernoff, H. (1972), Sequential Analysis and Optimal Design, Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.
5. Cochran, W. G. (1983), Planning and Analysis of Observational Studies, New York: Wiley.
6. Cochran, W. G., and Cox, G. M. (1950), Experimental Designs, New York: Wiley.
7. Cox, D. R. (1958), Planning of Experiments, New York: Wiley.
8. _ (1989), "Role of Models in Statistical Analysis," Statistical Science, 5, 169-174.
9. Creasy, M. A. (1954), "Limits for the Ratio of Means," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B, 16, 186-194.
10. Dawid, A. P. (2000), "Causal Inference Without Counterfactuals" (with discussion), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 407-448.
11. Efron, B., and Feldman, D. (1991), "Compliance as an Explanatory Variable in Clinical Trials" (with discussion), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 86, 9-26.
12. Fieller, E. C. (1944), "A Fundamental Formula in the Statistics of Biological Assay, and Some Applications," Quarterly Journal of Pharmacology, 17, 117-123.
13. _ (1954), "Some Problems in Interval Estimation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B, 16, 175-185.
14. Fisher, R. A. (1918), "The Causes of Human Variability," Eugenics Review, 10, 213-220.
15. _ (1922), "On the Mathematical Foundations of Theoretical Statistics," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Ser. A, 222, 309-368.
16. _ (1925), Statistical Methods for Research Workers, London: Oliver & Boyd.
17. _ (1926), "The Arrangement of Field Experiments," Journal of the Ministry of Agriculture of Great Britain, 33, 503-513.
18. _ (1935), Design of Experiments, Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd.
19. _ (1954), Comment on "Limits of the Ratio of Means," by M. A. Creasy, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B, 16, 212-213.
20. _ (1956), Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference, New York: Hafner.
21. _ (1966), Design of Experiments (8th ed.), Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd.
22. _ (1970), Statistical Methods for Research Workers (14th ed), Edindurgh: Oliver & Boyd.
23. Frangakis, C. E., and Baker, S. G. (2001), "Compliance Adjusted Double-Sampling Designs for Comparative Research: Estimation and Optimal Planning," Biometrics, 57, 899-908.
24. Frangakis, C. E., and Rubin, D. B. (2002), "Principal Stratification in Causal Inference," Biometrics, 58, 21-29.
25. Frangakis, C. E., Rubin, D. B., and Zhou, X.-H. (2002), "Clustered Encouragement Designs With Individual Noncompliance: Bayesian Inference With Randomization, and Application to Advance Directive Forms" (with discussion), Biostatistics, 3, 147-177.
26. Gelman, A., and King, G. (1990), "Estimating Incumbency Advantage Without Bias," American Journal of Political Science, 34, 1142-1164.
27. Gelman, A., Meng, X. L., and Stem, H. S. (1996), "Posterior Predictive Assessment of Model Fitness via Realized Discrepancies" (with discussion), Statistica Sinica, 6, 733-807.
28. Greenland, S., Pearl, J., and Robins, J. (1999), "Causal Diagrams for Epidemiologic Research," Epidemiology, 10, 37-48.
29. Grodstein, F., Clarkson, T. M., and Manson, J. E. (2003), "Understanding the Divergent Data on Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy," New England Journal of Medicine, 348, 645-650.
30. Haavelmo, T. (1943), "The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations," Econometrica, 11, 1-12.
31. Heckman, J. J. (1979), "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, 47, 125-129.
32. _ (1989), "Causal Inference and Nonrandom Samples," Journal of Educational Statistics, 14, 159-168.
33. _ (1996), Discussion of "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables," by J. D. Angrist, G. W. Imbens, and D. B. Rubin, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 459-462.
34. Holland, P. W. (1986), "Statistics and Causal Inference" (with discussion), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, 945-970.
35. Hurwicz, L. (1962), "On the Structural Form of Interdependent Systems," in Logic, Methodology, and Philosophy of Science (Proceedings of the 1960 International Congress), eds. E. Nagel, P. Suppes, and A. Tarski, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
36. Imbens, G. W., and Angrist, J. D. (1994), "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, 62, 467-475.
37. Imbens, G. W., and Rubin, D. B. (2005), "Causal Inference in Statistics and the Medical and Social Sciences," unpublished manuscript.
38. Kempthorne, O. (1952), The Design and Analysis of Experiments, New York: Wiley.
39. _ (1976), Comment on "On Rereading R. A. Fisher," by L. A. Savage, The Annals of Statistics, 4, 495-497.
40. Lauritzen, S. (2004), Discussion of "Direct and Indirect Causal Effects via Potential Outcomes," by D. B. Rubin, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 31, 189-192.
41. Lewis, D. (1973), Counterfactuals, Oxford U.K.: Blackwell.
42. Little, R. J. A., and Rubin, D. B. (2000), "Causal Effects in Clinical and Epidemiological Studies via Potential Outcomes: Concepts and Analytical Approaches," Annual Review of Public Health, 21, 121-145.
43. McCarthy, M. D. (1939), "On the Application of the z-Test to Randomized Blocks," The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 10, 337.
44. Meng, X. L. (1994), "Posterior Predictive p Values," The Annals of Statistics, 22, 1142-1160.
45. Neyman, J. (1923), "On the Application of Probability Theory to Agricultural Experiments. Essay on Principles. Section 9," Roczniki Nauk Rolniczych Tom X [in Polish]; translated in Statistical Science, 5, 465-480.
46. Neyman, J. (1923), "On the Application of Probability Theory to Agricultural Experiments. Essay on Principles. Section 9," Roczniki Nauk Rolniczych Tom X [in Polish]; translated in Statistical Science, 5, 465-480.
47. _ (1934), "On the Two Different Aspects of the Representative Method: The Method of Stratified Sampling and the Method of Purposive Selection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. A, 97, 558-606.
48. _ (1935), "Statistical Problems in Agricultural Experimentation" (with discussion), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B, 2 (suppl.), 107-108.
49. _ (1961), "Silver Julilee of My Dispute With Fisher," Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 3, 145-154.
50. Pearl, J. (1996), "Causation, Action and Counterfactuals," in Proceedings of the Sixth Conference on Theoretical Aspects of Rationality and Knowledge, ed. Y. Shoham, San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufman, pp. 57-73.
51. _ (2000), Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
52. Pitman, E. J. G. (1938), "Significance Tests Which Can Be Applied to Samples From Any Populations. III. The Analysis of Variance Test," Biometrika, 29, 322-335.
53. Pratt, J. W., and Schlaifer, R. (1984), "On the Nature and Discovery of Structure" (with discussion), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 3-33.
54. _ (1988), "On the Interpretation of Observational Laws," Econometrics, 39, 23-52.
55. Quandt, R. E. (1958), "The Estimation of the Parameters of a Linear Regression System Obeying Two Separate Regimes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53, 873-880.
56. Reid, C. (1982), Neyman From Life, New York: Springer-Verlag.
57. Rosenbaum, P. R. (2002), Observational Studies (2nd ed.), New York: Springer-Verlag.
58. Rosenbaum, P. R., and Rubin, D. B. (1983), "The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects," Biometrika, 70, 41-55.
59. _ (1984), "Reducing Bias in Observational Studies Using Subclassification on the Propensity Score," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 516-524.
60. _ (1985), "Constructing a Control Group Using Multivariate Matched Sampling Incorporating the Propensity Score," The American Statistician, 39, 33-38.
61. Roy, A. (1951), "Some Thoughts on the Distribution of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, 3, 135-146.
62. Rubin, D. B. (1974), "Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies," Journal of Educational Psychology, 66, 688-701.
63. _ (1975), "Bayesian Inference for Causality: The Importance of Randomization," in Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, pp. 233-239.
64. _ (1976), "Inference and Missing Data" (with discussion), Biometrika, 63, 581-592.
65. _ (1978), "Bayesian Inference for Causal Effects: The Role of Randomization," The Annals of Statistics, 6, 34-58.
66. _ (1980), Discussion of "Randomization Analysis of Experimental Data in the Fisher Randomization Test," by D. Basu, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 591-593.
67. _ (1984a), "William G. Cochran's Contributions to the Design, Analysis, and Evaluation of Observational Studies," in W. G. Cochran's Impact on Statistics, eds. P. S. R. S. Rao and J. Sedransk, New York: Wiley, pp. 37-69.
68. _ (1984b), "Bayesianly Justifiable and Relevant Frequency Calculations for the Applied Statistician," The Annals of Statistics, 12, 1151-1172.
69. _ (1990), "Neyman (1923) and Causal Inference in Experiments and Observational Studies," Statistical Science, 5, 472-480.
70. _ (2004), "Direct and Indirect Causal Effects via Potential Outcomes" (with discussion), Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 31, 161-170, 195-198.
71. Savage, L. A. (1976), "On Rereading R. A. Fisher," The Annals of Statistics, 4, 441-500.
72. Sheiner, L. B., and Rubin, D. B. (1994), "Intention-to-Treat Analysis and the Goals of Clinical Trials," Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics, 87, 6-15.
73. Sobel, M. E. (1996), "An Introduction to Causal Inference," Sociological Methods & Research, 76, 353-379.
74. Tinbergen, J. (1930), "Determination and Interpretation of Supply Curves: An Example," Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie; reprinted in Hendry, D. F., and Morgan, M. S. (eds.) (1995), The Foundations of Econometrics, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, p. 233.
75. Tinbergen, J. (1930), "Determination and Interpretation of Supply Curves: An Example," Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie; reprinted in Hendry, D. F., and Morgan, M. S. (eds.) (1995), The Foundations of Econometrics, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, p. 233.
76. Ware, J. H. (1989), "Investigating Therapies of Potentially Great Benefit: ECMO" (with discussion), Statistical Science, 4, 298-340.
77. Welch, B. L. (1937), "On the z Test in Randomized Blocks and Latin Squares," Biometrika, 29, 21-52.
78. Winship, C., and Morgan, S. L. (1999), "The Estimation of Causal Effects From Observational Data," Annual Review of Sociology, 25, 659-707.
79. Women's Health Initiative Study Group (1998), "Design of the Women's Health Initiative Clinical Trial and Observational Study," Controlled Clinical Trials, 19, 61-109.