메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 20, Issue 8, 2005, Pages 991-1001

Does high forecast uncertainty preclude effective decision support?

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; DECISION MAKING; FORECASTING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY; PROBLEM SOLVING; PUBLIC POLICY; UNCERTAIN SYSTEMS;

EID: 13744257142     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.10.005     Document Type: Conference Paper
Times cited : (84)

References (30)
  • 1
    • 0023523402 scopus 로고
    • Water quality modeling: A review of the analysis of uncertainty
    • M.B. Beck Water quality modeling: a review of the analysis of uncertainty Water Resources Research 23 8 1987 1393 1442
    • (1987) Water Resources Research , vol.23 , Issue.8 , pp. 1393-1442
    • Beck, M.B.1
  • 3
    • 0037092479 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the frequency of water quality standard violations: A probabilistic approach for TMDL development
    • M.E. Borsuk, C.A. Stow, and K.H. Reckhow Predicting the frequency of water quality standard violations: a probabilistic approach for TMDL development Environmental Science & Technology 36 10 2002 2109 2115
    • (2002) Environmental Science & Technology , vol.36 , Issue.10 , pp. 2109-2115
    • Borsuk, M.E.1    Stow, C.A.2    Reckhow, K.H.3
  • 5
    • 0034250032 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing dependence: Some experimental results
    • R.T. Clemen, G.W. Fischer, and R.L. Winkler Assessing dependence: some experimental results Management Science 46 8 2000 1100 1115
    • (2000) Management Science , vol.46 , Issue.8 , pp. 1100-1115
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Fischer, G.W.2    Winkler, R.L.3
  • 6
    • 0032656018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Correlations and copulas for decision and risk analysis
    • R.T. Clemen, and T. Reilly Correlations and copulas for decision and risk analysis Management Science 45 2 1999 208 224
    • (1999) Management Science , vol.45 , Issue.2 , pp. 208-224
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Reilly, T.2
  • 7
    • 0002628316 scopus 로고
    • Probability distributions with given multivariate marginals and given dependence structure
    • C.M. Cuadras Probability distributions with given multivariate marginals and given dependence structure Journal of Multivariate Analysis 42 1992 51 66
    • (1992) Journal of Multivariate Analysis , vol.42 , pp. 51-66
    • Cuadras, C.M.1
  • 10
    • 8544253810 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characterization and simulation of uncertain frequency distributions: Effects of distribution choice, variability, uncertainty, and parameter dependence
    • H.C. Frey, and D.S. Rhodes Characterization and simulation of uncertain frequency distributions: effects of distribution choice, variability, uncertainty, and parameter dependence Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 4 2 1998 423 468
    • (1998) Human and Ecological Risk Assessment , vol.4 , Issue.2 , pp. 423-468
    • Frey, H.C.1    Rhodes, D.S.2
  • 13
    • 0030134894 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Copula models for aggregating expert opinions
    • M.N. Jouini, and R.T. Clemen Copula models for aggregating expert opinions Operations Research 44 3 1996 444 457
    • (1996) Operations Research , vol.44 , Issue.3 , pp. 444-457
    • Jouini, M.N.1    Clemen, R.T.2
  • 14
    • 22844456870 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Separating variability and uncertainty in environmental risk assessment - Making choices
    • E.J. Kelly, and K. Campbell Separating variability and uncertainty in environmental risk assessment - making choices Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 6 1 2000 1 13
    • (2000) Human and Ecological Risk Assessment , vol.6 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-13
    • Kelly, E.J.1    Campbell, K.2
  • 16
    • 16144367388 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linkages: A tool for the construction of multivariate distributions with given nonoverlapping multivariate marginals
    • H. Li, M. Scarsini, and M. Shaked Linkages: A tool for the construction of multivariate distributions with given nonoverlapping multivariate marginals Journal of Multivariate Analysis 56 1996 20 41
    • (1996) Journal of Multivariate Analysis , vol.56 , pp. 20-41
    • Li, H.1    Scarsini, M.2    Shaked, M.3
  • 17
    • 0028170157 scopus 로고
    • Uses of probabilistic exposure models in ecological risk assessments of contaminated sites
    • D.L. MacIntosh, G.W. Suter II, and F.O. Hoffman Uses of probabilistic exposure models in ecological risk assessments of contaminated sites Risk Analysis 14 4 1994 405 419
    • (1994) Risk Analysis , vol.14 , Issue.4 , pp. 405-419
    • MacIntosh, D.L.1    Suter II, G.W.2    Hoffman, F.O.3
  • 19
    • 0030301846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning from integrated assessment of climate change
    • M.G. Morgan, and H. Dowlatabadi Learning from integrated assessment of climate change Climatic Change 34 1996 337 368
    • (1996) Climatic Change , vol.34 , pp. 337-368
    • Morgan, M.G.1    Dowlatabadi, H.2
  • 20
    • 0000022886 scopus 로고
    • Copulas, characterization, correlation, and counterexamples
    • R. Nelson Copulas, characterization, correlation, and counterexamples Mathematics Magazine 68 3 1995 193 198
    • (1995) Mathematics Magazine , vol.68 , Issue.3 , pp. 193-198
    • Nelson, R.1
  • 21
    • 0035388765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biogeochemical model of Lake Zürich: Sensitivity, identifiability and uncertainty analysis
    • M. Omlin, P. Brun, and P. Reichert Biogeochemical model of Lake Zürich: Sensitivity, identifiability and uncertainty analysis Ecological Modelling 141 2001 105 123
    • (2001) Ecological Modelling , vol.141 , pp. 105-123
    • Omlin, M.1    Brun, P.2    Reichert, P.3
  • 22
    • 0004213845 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK
    • J. Pearl Causality 2000 Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK
    • (2000) Causality
    • Pearl, J.1
  • 24
    • 13744251004 scopus 로고
    • An incremental phosphorus loading change approach for prediction error reduction
    • Office of Water Regulations and Standards, US EPA Portland, ME, USA
    • K.H. Reckhow An incremental phosphorus loading change approach for prediction error reduction International Symposium on Inland Waters and Lake Restoration 1980 Office of Water Regulations and Standards, US EPA Portland, ME, USA
    • (1980) International Symposium on Inland Waters and Lake Restoration
    • Reckhow, K.H.1
  • 25
    • 0028172386 scopus 로고
    • Importance of scientific uncertainty in decision-making
    • K.H. Reckhow Importance of scientific uncertainty in decision-making Environmental Management 18 1994 161 166
    • (1994) Environmental Management , vol.18 , pp. 161-166
    • Reckhow, K.H.1
  • 27
    • 0036850517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An efficient sampling technique for Bayesian inference
    • P. Reichert, M. Schervish, and M.J. Small An efficient sampling technique for Bayesian inference Technometrics 44 4 2002 318 327
    • (2002) Technometrics , vol.44 , Issue.4 , pp. 318-327
    • Reichert, P.1    Schervish, M.2    Small, M.J.3
  • 28
    • 0035007443 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identifiability and uncertainty analysis of the river water quality model no. 1 (RWQM1)
    • P. Reichert, and P. Vanrolleghem Identifiability and uncertainty analysis of the river water quality model no. 1 (RWQM1) Water Science and Technology 43 7 2001 329 338
    • (2001) Water Science and Technology , vol.43 , Issue.7 , pp. 329-338
    • Reichert, P.1    Vanrolleghem, P.2
  • 30
    • 0002901197 scopus 로고
    • Thirty years of copulas
    • G. Dall'Aglio S. Kotz G. Salinetti Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht
    • B. Schweizer Thirty years of copulas G. Dall'Aglio S. Kotz G. Salinetti Advances of Probability Distributions with Given Marginals 1991 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht 13 50
    • (1991) Advances of Probability Distributions with Given Marginals , pp. 13-50
    • Schweizer, B.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.