Monte Carlo uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the CACM chemical mechanism

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Volumn 108, Issue 15, 2003, Pages

  Rodriguez, Marco A ^a   Dabdub, Donald ^a  

^a University of California at Irvine   (United States)

Author keywords

Latin hypercube sampling; Polluted urban areas; Reaction rates; Secondary organic aerosol; Tropospheric chemistry mechanism

Indexed keywords

AEROSOL; NITROGEN OXIDES; ORGANIC POLLUTANT; OZONE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 1342312278     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2002jd003281     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. x ratios measured in 1984 and 1985, Rep. EPA/450/4-86-015, U.S. Environ. Prot. Agency, Research Triangle Park, N. C., 1986.
2. Bergin, M. S., G. S. Noblet, K. Petrini, J. R. Dhieux, J. B. Milford, and R. A. Harley, Formal uncertainty analysis of a Lagrangian photochemical air pollution model, Environ. Sci. Technol., 33, 1116-1126, 1999.
3. Carmichael, G. R., A. Sandu, and F. A. Potra, Sensitivity analysis for atmospheric chemistry models via automatic differentiation, Atmos. Environ., 31, 475-489, 1997.
4. DeMore, W. B., S. P. Sander, D. M. Golden, M. J. Molina, R. F. Hampson, M. J. Kurlyo, C. J. Howard, and A. R. Ravishankara, Chemical kinetics and photochemical data for use in stratospheric modeling, evaluation number 9, JPL Publ., 90-1, 1990.
5. Derwent, R., and O. Hov, Application of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques to a photochemical ozone model, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 5185-5199, 1988.
6. Dunker, A. M., Efficient calculation of sensitivity coefficients for complex atmospheric models, Atmos. Environ., 15, 1155-1161, 1981.
7. Dunker, A. M., The decoupled direct method for calculating sensitivity coefficients in chemical kinetics, J. Chem. Phys., 81, 2385-2393, 1984.
8. Ehhalt, D. H., J. S. Chang, and D. M. Buller, The probability distribution of the predicted CFM-induced ozone depletion, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 7889-7894, 1979.
9. Gao, D., W. R. Stockwell, and J. B. Milford, First-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a regional-scale gas-phase chemical mechanism, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 23,153-23,166, 1995.
10. Gao, D., W. R. Stockwell, and J. B. Milford, Global uncertainty analysis of a regional-scale gas-phase chemical mechanism, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 9107-9119, 1996.
11. Grenfell, J. L., et al., Tropospheric box-modelling and analytical studies of the hydroxyl (OH) radical and related species: Comparison with observations, J. Atmos. Chem., 33, 183-214, 1999.
12. Griffin, R. J., D. Dabdub, And J. H. Seinfield, Secondary organic aerosol: 1. Atmospheric chemical mechanism for production of molecular constituents, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D17), 4332, doi:10.1029/2001JD000541, 2002a.
13. Griffin, R. J., D. Dabdub, M. J. Kleeman, M. P. Fraser, G. R. Cass, and J. H. Seinfield, Secondary organic aerosol: 3. Urban/regional scale model of size- and composition-resolved aerosols, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D17), 4334, doi:10.1029/2001JD000544, 2002b.
14. Hanna, S. R., Z. G. Lu, H. C. Frey, N. Wheeler, J. Vukovich, S. Arunachalam, M. Fernau, and D. A. Hansen, Uncertainties in predicted ozone concentrations due to input uncertainties for the UAM-V photochemical grid model applied to the July 1995 OTAG domain, Atmos. Environ., 35, 891-903, 2001.
15. Harley, R. A., A. G. Russell, G. J. McRae, G. R. Cass, and J. H. Seinfeld, Photochemical modeling of the Southern California Air Quality Study, Environ. Sci. Technol., 26, 2395-2408, 1993.
16. Iman, R. L., and J. C. Helton, A comparison of uncertainty and sensitivity techniques for computer models, Rep. SAND83-2365, U.S. Dep. of Energy, Sandia Natl. Lab., Albuquerque, N. M., 1984.
17. McCay, M. D., W. J. Conover, and R. J. Beckman, A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code, Technometrics, 221, 239-245, 1979.
18. Meng, Z., D. Dabdub, and J. H. Seinfeld, Size-resolved and chemically resolved model of atmospheric aerosol dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 3419-3435, 1998.
19. Milford, J. D., D. Gao, A. G. Russell, and G. J. McRae, Use of sensitivity analysis to compare chemical mechanisms for air-quality modeling, Environ. Sci. Technol., 26, 1179-1189, 1992.
20. Phenix, B. D., J. L. Dinaro, M. A. Tatang, J. W. Tester, J. B. Howard, and G. J. McRae, Incorporation of parametric uncertainty into complex kinetic mechanisms: Application to hydrogen oxidation in supercritical water, Combust. Flame, 112, 132-146, 1998.
21. Pun, B. K., R. J. Griffin, C. Seigneur, and J. H. Seinfeld, Secondary organic aerosol: 2. Thermodynamic model for gas/particle partitioning of molecular constituents, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D17), 4333, doi:10.1029/2001JD000542, 2002.
22. Rabitz, H., and J. Hales, An ACP Primer on sensitivity analysis: Monthly update, DOE Atmos. Chem. Program, 6 (11), pp. 1-7, Battelle Pacific Northwest Labs., Richland, Washington, 1995.
23. Rabitz, H., M. Kramer, and D. Docol, Sensitivity analysis in chemical kinetics, Ann. Rev. Phys. Chem., 34, 419-461, 1983.
24. Stolarski, R. S., D. M. Butler, and R. D. Rundel, Uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model: 2. Monte Carlo analysis of imprecisions due to reaction rates, J. Geophys. Res., 83, 3074-3078, 1978.
25. Thompson, A. M., and R. W. Stewart; Effect of chemical kinetic uncertainties on calculated constituents in a tropospheric photochemical model, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 13,089-13,108, 1991.
26. Vuilleumier, L., J. T. Bamer, R. A. Harley, and N. J. Brown, Evaluation of nitrogen dioxide photolysis rates in an urban area using data from the 1997 Southern California Ozone Study, Atmos. Environ., 35, 6525-6537, 1997.
27. Yang, Y., W. R. Stockwell, and J. B. Milford, Effect of chemical product yield uncertainties on reactivities of VOCs and emissions from reformulated gasolines and methanol fuels, Environ. Sci. Technol., 29, 1336-1345, 1996.