Finite-time normal mode disturbances and error growth during southern hemisphere blocking

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 22, Issue 1, 2005, Pages 69-89

  Wei, Mozheng ^a   Frederiksen, Jorgen S ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Blocking; Finite time normal modes; Normal modes; Pattern correlations; Tangent linear model

Indexed keywords

EID: 12944292873     PISSN: 02561530     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/BF02930871     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Anderson, J. L., 1991: The robustness of barotropic unstable modes in a zonally varying atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 2393-2410.
2. Anderson, J. L., 1993: The climatology of blocking in a numerical forecast model. J. Climate, 6, 1041-1056.
3. Anderson, J. L., 1996: Selection of initial conditions for ensemble forecasts in a simple perfect model framework. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 22-36.
4. Arnoldi, W. E., 1951: The principle of minimized iterations in the solution of the matrix eigenvalue problem. Quarterly of Applied Mathematics, 9, 17-29.
5. Bengtsson, L., 1981: Numerical prediction of atmospheric blocking: A case study. Tellus, 33, 19-24.
6. Borges, M. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 1992: Barotropic instability and optimal perturbations of observed nonzonal flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 335-354.
7. Buizza, R. and F. Molteni, 1996: The role of finite-time barotropic instability during transition to blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 53 1675-1697.
8. Buizza, R., P. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pelerin, Mozheng Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.
9. CMB, 1989: Climate Monitoring Bulletin, Southern Hemisphere, No. 39 April; No. 46, November; No.47, December 1989, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.
10. Colucci, S. J. and D. P. Baumhefner, 1992: Initial weather regimes as predictors of numerical 30-day mean forecast accuracy. J. Atmos. Sci. 49, 1652-1671.
11. Coughlan, M. L., 1983: A comparative climatology of blocking action in the two hemispheres. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 31, 3-13.
12. de Pondeca, M. S. F. A., A. Barcilon, and X. Zou, 1998a: An adjoint sensitivity study of the efficacy of modal and nonmodal perturbations in causing model block onset. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 2095-2118.
13. de Pondeca, M. S. F. A., A. Barcilon, and X. Zou, 1998b: The role of wave breaking, linear instability, and PV transports in model block onset. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 2852-2873.
14. Errico, R. M., T. Vukicevic, and K. Raeder, 1993: Examination of the accuracy of a tangent linear model. Tellus, 45A, 462-477.
15. Farrell, B. F., 1989: Optimal excitation of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1193-1206.
16. Frederiksen, J. S., 1982: A unified three-dimensional instability theory of the onset of blocking and cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 39 970-982.
17. Frederiksen, J. S., 1984: The onset of blocking and cyclogenesis in Southern Hemisphere synoptic flows: Linear theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1116-1131.
18. Frederiksen, J. S., 1997: Adjoint sensitivity and finite-time normal mode disturbances during blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1144-1165.
19. Frederiksen, J. S.; 1998: Precursors to blocking anomalies: The tangent linear and inverse problems. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 2419-2436.
20. Frederiksen, J. S., 2000: Singular vectors, finite-time normal modes and error growth during blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 312-333.
21. Frederiksen, J. S., and R. C. Bell, 1990: North Atlantic blocking during January 1979: Linear theory. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116 1289-1313.
22. Frederiksen, J. S., and G. Branstator, 2001: Seasonal and intraseasonal variability of large-scale barotropic modes. J. Atmos. Sci., 58 50-69.
23. Frederiksen, J. S., M. A. Collier, and A. B. Watkins, 2004: Ensemble prediction of blocking regime transitions. Tellus, 56A, 485-500.
24. Goldhirsch, I., S. A. Orszag, and B. K. Maulik, 1987: An efficient method for computing leading eigenvalues and eigenvectors of large asymmetric matrices. J. Sci. Computing., 2, 33-58.
25. Held, I. M., 1983: Stationary and quasi-stationary eddies in the extratropical troposphere: Theory. Large Scale Dynamic Processes in the Atmosphere, B.J.Hoskins and R.P.Pearce, Eds., Academic Press, 127-167.
26. Houtekamer, P. L., and J. Derome, 1995: Methods for ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2181-2196.
27. Kimoto, M., H. Mukougawa, and S. Yoden, 1992: Medium-range forecast skill variation and blocking transition: A case study. Mon. Wea. Rev. 120, 1616-1627.
28. Lacarra, J. F., and O. Talagrand, 1988: Short-range evolution of small perturbations in a barotropic model. Tellus, 40A, 81-95.
29. Legras, B., and R. Vautard, 1996: A guide to Liapunov vectors. Proc. of a Seminar Held at ECMWF on Predictability, 4-8 September 1995, Vol.I, 143-156.
30. Lejenas, H., 1984: Characteristics of southern hemisphere blocking as determined from a time series of observational data. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 110, 967-979.
31. Lorenz, E. N., 1965: A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 17, 321-333.
32. Molteni, F., and T. Palmer, 1993: Predictability and finitetime instability of the northern winter circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 269-298
33. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119
34. Mu, M., and W. Duan, 2003: A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Chinese Sci. Bull., 48, 1045-1047.
35. Mu, M., W. S. Duan, and B. Wang, 2003: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications. Nonlinear Process in Geophysics 10, 493-501.
36. Noar, P. F., 1983: Numerical modelling of blocking with reference to June 1982. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 31, 37-49.
37. Noone, D., and I. Simmonds, 1998: Similarity of "fast-growing perturbations" and an illustrative experiment with ensemble forecasting. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 47, 5-19.
38. Palmer, T. N., 1993: Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 49-65.
39. Saad, Y., 1992: Numerical Methods for Large Eigenvalue Problems. Halsted Press-John Wiley & Sons Inc., 346pp.
40. Simmons, A. J., J. M. Wallace, and G. W. Branstator, 1983: Barotropic wave propagations and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1363-1392.
41. Szunyogh, I., E. Kalnay, and Z. Toth, 1997: A comparison of Lyapunov and Optimal vectors in a low-resolution GCM. Tellus, 48A, 200-227.
42. Tibaldi, S., and F. Molteni, 1990: On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A, 343-365.
43. Tibaldi, S., P. Ruti, and M. Maxuca, 1995: Operational predictability of winter blocking at ECMWF: An update. Ann. Geophysicae, 13, 305-317.
44. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 174, 2317-2330.
45. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
46. Tribbia, J., and D. Baumhefner, 1993: On the problem of prediction beyond the deterministic range. Proc. NATO Workshop on Predictions of Interannual Climate Variations, S. Shukla, Ed., NATO ASI Series, Springer-Verlag, 251-265.
47. van Loon, H., 1956: Blocking action in the Southern Hemisphere, Part I. Notos, 5, 171-177.
48. Veyre, P., 1991: Direct prediction of error variances by the tangent linear model: A way to forecast uncertainty in the short range? Proc. ECMWF Workshop on New Developments in Predictability, Reading, UK, 65-86.
49. Wei, Mozheng, 2000: Quantifying local instability and predictability of chaotic dynamical systems by means of local metric entropy, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 10, No.1, 135-154.
50. Wei, Mozheng, and Z. Toth, 2003: A New Measure of Ensemble Performance: Perturbation versus Error Correlation Analysis (PECA). Mon. Wea. Rev. 131, 1549-1565.
51. Whitaker, J. S., and A. Barcilon, 1992: Type B cyclogenesis in zonally varying flow. J. Atmos. Sci, 49, 1877-1892.
52. Wright, A. D. F., 1974: Blocking action in the Australian region. Tech. Rep., No. 10, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 29pp.