Modeling drinking water quality violations with Bayesian networks

Journal of the American Water Resources Association

Volumn 40, Issue 6, 2004, Pages 1563-1578

  Pike, William A ^a  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian networks; Drinking water; Expert systems; Graphical models; Susquehanna River Basin; Water quality; Water supply

Indexed keywords

HEALTH CARE; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; WATER QUALITY; WATER TREATMENT;

BACKWASH FREQUENCY; BAYESIAN NETWORKS; WATER TREATMENT FACILITIES;

POTABLE WATER;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; DECISION MAKING; DRINKING WATER; NUMERICAL MODEL; WATER QUALITY; WATER SUPPLY; WATER TREATMENT;

NORTH AMERICA; SUSQUEHANNA RIVER; UNITED STATES; WESTERN HEMISPHERE; WORLD;

EID: 12244298949     PISSN: 1093474X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb01606.x     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Arora H., G. Di Giovanni, and M. LeChevallier, 2001. Spent Filter Backwash Water Contaminants and Treatment Strategies. Journal of the American Water Works Association 93(6):100-117.
2. AWWA (American Water Works Association), 1982. Basic Management Principles for Small Water Systems. American Water Works Association, Denver, Colorado.
3. AWWA (American Water Works Association), 1998. Water Treatment Plant Design (Third Edition). McGraw-Hill, New York, New York.
4. Bather A., R.C. Andrews, and R. Hunsinger, 1998. An Expert-Hypertext System for Water Chlorination and Chloramination Operations. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25(4):653-661.
5. Bodo, B. and T.E. Unny, 1976. Model Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analysis and Frequency-Based Design. Water Resources Research 12(6):1109-1117.
6. Borsuk, M.E., C.A. Stow, and K.H. Reckhow, 2003. Integrated Approach to Total Maximum Daily Load Development for Neuse River Estuary Using Bayesian Probability Network Model (Neu-BERN). Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 129(4):271-282.
7. Buntine, W.L., 1994. Operations for Learning With Graphical Models. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 2:159-225.
8. Caselton, W.F. and W. Luo, 1992. Decision Making With Imprecise Probabilities: Dempster-Shafer Theory and Application. Water Resources Research 28(12):3071-3083.
9. Chao, C.J., G. Salvendy, and N.J. Lightner, 1999. Development of a Methodology for Optimizing Elicited Knowledge. Behaviour and Information Technology 18(6):413-430.
10. Cooke, N.J., 1994. Varieties of Knowledge Elicitation Techniques. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies 41(6):801-849.
11. Cooke, R.M., 1991. Experts in Uncertainty: Expert Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. Oxford University Press, New York, New York.
12. Cooper, G.F. and E. Herskovits, 1992. A Bayesian Method for the Induction of Probabilistic Networks from Data. Machine Learning 9:309-347.
13. D'Ambrosio, B., 1999. Inference in Bayesian Networks. AI Magazine 20(2):21-36.
14. Dandy, G.C. and A.R. Simpson, 1991. Development of Expert Systems for a Water Filtration Plant. Civil Engineering Systems 8(2):63-69.
15. Dawid, A.P., 1992. Applications of a General Propagation Algorithm for Probabilistic Expert Systems. Statistics and Computing 2:37-40.
16. Freeman, G.H., S.D. Jacka, J.E.H. Shaw, and J.Q. Smith, 1996. Modeling the Management of Underground Water Assets. Journal of Applied Statistics 23(2):273-284.
17. Heckerman, D., D. Geiger, and D.M. Chickering, 1995. Learning Bayesian Networks: The Combinations of Knowledge and Statistical Data. Machine Learning 20:197-243.
18. Hoffman, R.R., B. Crandall, and N. Shadbolt, 1998. Use of the Critical Decision Method to Elicit Expert Knowledge: A Case Study in the Methodology of Cognitive Task Analysis. Human Factors 40(2):254-276.
19. Hugin Expert A/S, 2001. Hugin Version 5.6. Aalborg, Denmark [software].
20. James, R.T., K. Odell, and V.H. Smith, 1994. Water-Quality Trends in Lake Tohopekaliga, Florida, USA - Responses to Watershed Management. Water Resources Bulletin 30(3):531-546.
21. Jensen, F., 1994. Implementation Aspects of Various Propagation Algorithms in HUGIN. Technical Paper R 94-2014, Aalborg University Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Aalborg, Denmark.
22. Jensen, F., U.B. Kjaerulff, M. Lang, and A.L. Madsen, 2002. HUGIN - The Tool for Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams. In: Proceedings of the First European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Jose A. Gamez and Antonio Salineron (Editors), pp. 212-221.
23. Jowitt, P. and J. Lumbers, 1991. Development of Expert Systems for a Water Filtration Plant. Civil Engineering Systems 8:63-69.
24. Kuczera, G., 1999. Comprehensive At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis Using Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference. Water Resources Research 35(5):1551-1557.
25. Lauritzen, S.L., 1992. Propagation of Probabilities, Means, and Variances in Mixed Graphical Association Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87:1098-1108.
26. Lauritzen, S.L. and D.J. Spiegelhalter, 1988. Local Computations With Probabilities on Graphical Structures and Their Application to Expert Systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 50:157-224.
27. National Research Council, 1997. Safe Water From Every Tap. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
28. Nix, S.J. and A.G. Collins, 1991. Expert Systems in Water Treatment Plant Operation. Journal of the American Water Works Association 83(2):43-51.
29. O'Connor, R.E., B. Yarnal, R. Neff, R. Bord, N. Wiefek, C. Reenock, R. Shudak, C.L. Jocoy, P. Pascale, and C.G. Knight, 1999. Weather and Climate Extremes, Climate Change, and Planning: Views of Community Water System Mangers in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 35(6):1411-1419.
30. Olson, J. and H. Reuter, 1987. Extracting Expertise From Experts: Methods for Knowledge Acquisition. Expert Systems 4(3):152-168.
31. Olson, R.L., J.L. Willer, and T.L. Wagner, 1990. A Framework for Modeling Uncertain Reasoning in Ecosystem Management: Bayesian Belief Networks. AI Applications 4(4):11-23.
32. Otway, H. and D. von Winterfeldt, 1992. Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis and Management - Process, Context, and Pitfalls. Risk Analysis 12(1):83-93.
33. Pearl, J., 1982. Reverend Bayes on Inference Engines: A Distributed Hierarchical Approach. Proceedings of the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, pp. 133-136.
34. Pearl, J., 1988. Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, California.
35. PADEP (Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection), 2001. Pennsylvania's Environment, Facility, Application Compliance Tracking System: eFACTS. Available at http://www.dep. state.pa.us/efacts/. Accessed in December 2002.
36. Pontius, F.W., 1997. Regulating Filter Backwash Water. Journal of the American Water Works Association 89(8):14-23.
37. Pontius, F.W. and S.W. Clark, 1999. Drinking Water Quality Standards, Regulations and Goals. In: Water Quality and Treatment (Fifth Edition), R.D. Letterman (Editor). McGraw-Hill, New York, New York, pp. 115-137.
38. Prendergast, J., 1993. Fit to Drink. Civil Engineering 63(5):52-55.
39. Ramoni, M. and P. Sebastiani, 1997. Learning Bayesian Networks From Incomplete Databases. KMi Technical Report KMi-TR-43, Knowledge Media Institute, The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom.
40. Renooij, S. and C. Witteman, 1999. Talking Probabilities: Communicating Probabilistic Information With Words and Numbers. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 22:169-194.
41. Sanguesa, R. and P. Burrell, 2000. Application of Bayesian Network Learning Methods to Waste Water Treatment Plants. Artificial Intelligence 13:19-40.
42. Spiegelhalter, D.J. and S.L. Lauritzen, 1990. Sequential Updating of Conditional Probabilities on Directed Graphical Structures. Networks 20:579-605.
43. USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), 1999a. National Primary Drinking Water Standards. EPA 810-F-94-001, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
44. USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), 1999b. National Water Quality Inventory. EPA 841-B-99-005, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
45. USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), 2000. Providing Safe Drinking Water in America, Compliance Assurance 2201A. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
46. Van der Gaag, L., 1996. Bayesian Belief Networks: Odds and Ends. The Computer Journal 39(2):97-113.
47. Varis, O., 1997. Bayesian Decision Analysis for Environmental and Resource Management. Environmental Modelling and Software 12(2-3):177-185.
48. Varis, O. and S. Kuikka, 1999. Learning Bayesian Decision Analysis By Doing: Lessons From Environmental and Natural Resources Management. Ecological Modelling 119(2-3):177-195.
49. Vigneswaran, S. and C. Visvanathan, 1995. Water Treatment Processes. CRC Press, New York, New York.
50. Wang, X., 2001. Integrating Water-Quality Management and Land-Use Planning in a Watershed Context. Journal of Environmental Management 61(1):25-36.
51. Wood, E.F., 1978. Analyzing Hydrologic Uncertainty and Its Impact Upon Decision Making in Water Resources. Advances in Water Resources 1(5):299-305.
52. Wood, E.F. and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, 1975. Bayesian Inference and Decision Making for Extreme Hydrologic Events. Water Resources Research 11(4):533-542.
53. Zhu, X.X. and A.R. Simpson, 1996. Expert System for Water Treatment Plant Operation. Journal of Environmental Engineering 122(9): 622-629.