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Volumn 15, Issue 1, 2005, Pages 55-70

Managing uncertainty: The bias and efficiency of federal macroeconomic forecasts

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EID: 11944253652     PISSN: 10531858     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/jopart/mui003     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (14)

References (21)
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    • Beck, N.1    Katz, J.2
  • 2
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    • Are forecasts by government agencies biased? Accurate?
    • Belongia, Michael. 1988. Are forecasts by government agencies biased? Accurate? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 70:15-23.
    • (1988) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review , vol.70 , pp. 15-23
    • Belongia, M.1
  • 3
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    • CBO 's economic forecasting record
    • Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office
    • Congressional Budget Office. 2002. CBO 's Economic Forecasting Record. A Supplement to The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (November). Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office.
    • (2002) A Supplement to the Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (November)
  • 6
    • 0040455274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why are professional forecasters biased? Agency versus behavioral explanations
    • Ehrbeck, Tilman, and Robert Waldmann. 1996. Why are professional forecasters biased? Agency versus behavioral explanations. Quarterly Journal of Economics 111:21-40.
    • (1996) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.111 , pp. 21-40
    • Ehrbeck, T.1    Waldmann, R.2
  • 10
    • 0037310807 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coping with uncertainty: Analyzing risk propensities of SEC budgetary decisions, 1949-97
    • Krause, George. 2003. Coping with uncertainty: Analyzing risk propensities of SEC budgetary decisions, 1949-97. American Political Science Review 97:171-88.
    • (2003) American Political Science Review , vol.97 , pp. 171-188
    • Krause, G.1
  • 12
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    • The rationality of economic forecasts
    • McNees, Stephen. 1978. The rationality of economic forecasts. American Economic Review 68:301-5.
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    • McNees, S.1
  • 13
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    • Consensus forecasts: Tyranny of the majority
    • November-December
    • _. 1987. Consensus forecasts: Tyranny of the majority. New England Economic Review, November-December: 15-21.
    • (1987) New England Economic Review , pp. 15-21
  • 14
    • 0040734936 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting budget deficits: How reliable are U.S. Congressional Budget Office projections?
    • Miller, Stephen. 1991. Forecasting budget deficits: How reliable are U.S. Congressional Budget Office projections? Applied Economics 23:1789-1800.
    • (1991) Applied Economics , vol.23 , pp. 1789-1800
    • Miller, S.1
  • 15
    • 0002254780 scopus 로고
    • The evaluation of economic forecasts
    • ed. Jacob Mincer. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research
    • Mincer, Jacob, and Victor Zarnowitz. 1969. The evaluation of economic forecasts. In Economic forecasts and expectations, ed. Jacob Mincer, 3-46. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
    • (1969) Economic Forecasts and Expectations , pp. 3-46
    • Mincer, J.1    Zarnowitz, V.2
  • 16
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    • Rational expectations and the theory of price movements
    • Muth, John F. 1965. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica 29:315-35.
    • (1965) Econometrica , vol.29 , pp. 315-335
    • Muth, J.F.1
  • 17
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    • The accuracy of government forecasts and budget projections
    • Plesko, G. A. 1988. The accuracy of government forecasts and budget projections. National Tax Journal 41:483-501.
    • (1988) National Tax Journal , vol.41 , pp. 483-501
    • Plesko, G.A.1
  • 18
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    • Economics as a political process
    • Rivlin, Alice. 1987. Economics as a political process. American Economic Review 77:1-10.
    • (1987) American Economic Review , vol.77 , pp. 1-10
    • Rivlin, A.1
  • 19
    • 20344401855 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors
    • January-February
    • Schuh, Scott. 2001. An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors. New England Economic Review, January-February:35-56.
    • (2001) New England Economic Review , pp. 35-56
    • Schuh, S.1


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