Oil forecasts, past and present

Energy Exploration and Exploitation

Volumn 20-21, Issue 6-1, 2002, Pages 481-492

  Bentley, R W ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA ACQUISITION; ESTIMATION; FORECASTING; NATURAL RESOURCES EXPLORATION; OIL FIELDS; PETROLEUM INDUSTRY; RESERVES TO PRODUCTION RATIO; RESOURCE ALLOCATION;

GLOBAL SUPPLY SCARCITY; OIL FORECASTS; OIL GLOBAL EXHAUSTION; PROVED OIL RESERVES;

CRUDE PETROLEUM;

EID: 10844247336     PISSN: 01445987     EISSN: None     Source Type: Trade Journal    
DOI: 10.1260/014459802321615108     Document Type: Review

References (8)

1. For recent examples see: • Peter Davies (Chief Economist, BP): "There is always a series of geologists who are concerned about imminent depletion of world supplies, they have been wrong for 100 years and I would be confident they will be wrong in the future. As of today there are very adequate supplies of oil and gas. With the proven reserves and today's technology there is 40 years of oil and 60 years of gas plus. I think there is every reason to believe that technology will continue to exceed the forces of depletion and we have continually replaced both oil and gas reserves over the past 30-40 years, ... I would be very confident on the availability of fossil fuels for the foreseeable future." Evidence to the UK House of Lords Select Committee on the European Union, considering the EU's Green Paper (Nov. 2000) 'Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply', Select Committee's Report: Energy supply: How secure are we?, Session 2001-02 14th Report, HL Paper 82, published 12th February, 2002, page 79. • T. Emerson: "Bush warns of 'worst energy-supply crisis since the 1970s'. ... The global view suggests, in fact, that there is no supply crisis." The Thirst for Oil; article in Newsweek, April 8/15, 2002, p 32-35.
2. The explanation is that the global oil production peak date is driven almost entirely by the existing reserves in known fields. This is because the global conventional oil discovery to-date of about 1800 Gb (excluding NGLs) is being augmented so slowly by the discovery of oil in new fields (around 10 Gb/year) that the oil assumed in the high estimates for global conventional ultimate (i.e.. estimates much above 2000 Gb) simply cannot be found until after the peak date. It is easy to verify this by comparing estimates of conventional ultimate from the USGS year 2000 survey of the world's oil resources with the cumulative production at the production peak points of the many countries and regions that are now clearly past peak. Many also still think that improved recovery in existing fields also contributes large volumes of oil to the total available, but detailed analysis shows that most of such apparent 'reserves growth' is due to the conservative method of reporting reserves. For more information, see: R.W. Bentley. Global oil and gas depletion: an Overview. Energy Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp 189-205, Elsevier, February 2002; and: R.W. Bentley, R.H. Booth, J.D. Burton, MJL. Coleman, B.W. Sellwood, G.R. Whitfield. Perspectives on the Future of Oil. Energy Exploration and Exploitation, Vol. 18, Nos. 2 & 3, pp 147-206, Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd., 2000.
3. The explanation is that the global oil production peak date is driven almost entirely by the existing reserves in known fields. This is because the global conventional oil discovery to-date of about 1800 Gb (excluding NGLs) is being augmented so slowly by the discovery of oil in new fields (around 10 Gb/year) that the oil assumed in the high estimates for global conventional ultimate (i.e.. estimates much above 2000 Gb) simply cannot be found until after the peak date. It is easy to verify this by comparing estimates of conventional ultimate from the USGS year 2000 survey of the world's oil resources with the cumulative production at the production peak points of the many countries and regions that are now clearly past peak. Many also still think that improved recovery in existing fields also contributes large volumes of oil to the total available, but detailed analysis shows that most of such apparent 'reserves growth' is due to the conservative method of reporting reserves. For more information, see: R.W. Bentley. Global oil and gas depletion: an Overview. Energy Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp 189-205, Elsevier, February 2002; and: R.W. Bentley, R.H. Booth, J.D. Burton, MJL. Coleman, B.W. Sellwood, G.R. Whitfield. Perspectives on the Future of Oil. Energy Exploration and Exploitation, Vol. 18, Nos. 2 & 3, pp 147-206, Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd., 2000.
4. Other influential books from the 1970s, at least on this side of the pond, include: • G. Foley, with C. Nassim. The Energy Question, Penguin Books, Middlesex, ∼1975. This contains a fascinating discussion of the then-generally available data on oil resources; including an early understanding of apparent discrepancies in the data from Professor Odell. • J.G. McMullan, R. Morgan and R.P. Murray. Energy Resources and Supply, Wiley, 1976. This has an excellent graph, Figure 1.3, showing the possible future production from a wide range of fuels, including fission and fusion. For conventional oil it shows a peak soon after the year 2000. (Professor John McMullan is now at Ulster University, and was Chairman of the DTI's 'Foresight Programme' Energy Futures Task Force). • G. Leach et al. A Low Energy Strategy for the United Kingdom, Science Reviews, London, 1979, ISBN: 0-905-927-20-6. Page 9 has: "Forecasts show energy needs rising implacably, with widening energy gaps appearing around the turn of the century as oil and gas production begin to decline." (Gerry Leach is now with the Stockholm Environment Institute, and is based in London.)
5. Other influential books from the 1970s, at least on this side of the pond, include: • G. Foley, with C. Nassim. The Energy Question, Penguin Books, Middlesex, ∼1975. This contains a fascinating discussion of the then-generally available data on oil resources; including an early understanding of apparent discrepancies in the data from Professor Odell. • J.G. McMullan, R. Morgan and R.P. Murray. Energy Resources and Supply, Wiley, 1976. This has an excellent graph, Figure 1.3, showing the possible future production from a wide range of fuels, including fission and fusion. For conventional oil it shows a peak soon after the year 2000. (Professor John McMullan is now at Ulster University, and was Chairman of the DTI's 'Foresight Programme' Energy Futures Task Force). • G. Leach et al. A Low Energy Strategy for the United Kingdom, Science Reviews, London, 1979, ISBN: 0-905-927-20-6. Page 9 has: "Forecasts show energy needs rising implacably, with widening energy gaps appearing around the turn of the century as oil and gas production begin to decline." (Gerry Leach is now with the Stockholm Environment Institute, and is based in London.)
6. Other influential books from the 1970s, at least on this side of the pond, include: • G. Foley, with C. Nassim. The Energy Question, Penguin Books, Middlesex, ∼1975. This contains a fascinating discussion of the then-generally available data on oil resources; including an early understanding of apparent discrepancies in the data from Professor Odell. • J.G. McMullan, R. Morgan and R.P. Murray. Energy Resources and Supply, Wiley, 1976. This has an excellent graph, Figure 1.3, showing the possible future production from a wide range of fuels, including fission and fusion. For conventional oil it shows a peak soon after the year 2000. (Professor John McMullan is now at Ulster University, and was Chairman of the DTI's 'Foresight Programme' Energy Futures Task Force). • G. Leach et al. A Low Energy Strategy for the United Kingdom, Science Reviews, London, 1979, ISBN: 0-905-927-20-6. Page 9 has: "Forecasts show energy needs rising implacably, with widening energy gaps appearing around the turn of the century as oil and gas production begin to decline." (Gerry Leach is now with the Stockholm Environment Institute, and is based in London.)
7. D.H. Meadows, D.L. Meadows, J. Randers and W.W. Behrens III. The Limits to Growth, Earth Island, 1972.
8. D.H. Meadows, D.L. Meadows, J. Randers. Beyond the Limits, Earthscan, 1992.