Inferring Process from Pattern in Plant Invasions: A Semimechanistic Model Incorporating Propagule Pressure and Environmental Factors

American Naturalist

Volumn 162, Issue 6, 2003, Pages 713-724

  Rouget, Mathieu ^a,b   Richardson, David M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

^b SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL BIODIVERSITY INSTITUTE   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Determinants of spread; Exotic species; Invasion barriers; Mass effect; Plant environment interactions; Tree invasions

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL INVASION; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; PROPAGULE;

ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; COMPARATIVE STUDY; ENVIRONMENT; GEOGRAPHY; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEEDLING; SOUTH AFRICA; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; TREE;

ENVIRONMENT; GEOGRAPHY; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEEDLING; SOUTH AFRICA; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; TREES;

ACACIA; ACACIA CYCLOPS; ACACIA SALIGNA; CYCLOPS; PINUS PINASTER;

EID: 0742305470     PISSN: 00030147     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/379204     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Bergelson, J., J. A. Newman, and E. M. Floresroux. 1993. Rates of weed spread in spatially heterogeneous environments. Ecology 74:999-1011.
2. Breinam, L., J. H. Friedman, R. A. Olshen, and C. J. Stone. 1984. Classification and regression trees. Wadsworth, Belmont, Calif.
3. Chambers, J. M., and T. J. Hastie. 1991. Statistical models. Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole, Pacific Grove, Calif.
4. Cowling, R. M., B. M. Campbell, P. J. Mustart, D. J. McDonald, M. L. Jarman, and E. J. Moll. 1988. Vegetation classification in a floristically complex area: the Agulhas Plain. South African Journal of Botany 54:290-300.
5. D'Antonio, C. M., J. Levine, and M. Thomsen. 2001. Ecosystem resistance and the role of propagule supply: a California perspective. Journal of Mediterranean Ecology 2:233-245.
6. De'ath, G., and K. E. Fabricius. 2000. Classification and regression trees: a powerful yet simple technique for ecological data analysis. Ecology 81:3178-3192.
7. Fielding, A. H., and J. F. Bell. 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 24:38-49.
8. Foster, B. L. 2001. Constraints on colonization and species richness along a grassland productivity gradient: the role of propagule availability. Ecology Letters 4:530-535.
9. Franklin, J. 1995. Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography 19:474-499.
10. Green, R. E. 1997. The influence of numbers released on the outcome of attempts to introduce exotic bird species to New Zealand. Journal of Animal Ecology 66:25-35.
11. Guisan, A., and N. E. Zimmermann. 2000. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135:147-186.
12. Higgins, S. I., and D. M. Richardson. 1996. A review of models of alien plant spread. Ecological Modelling 87: 249-265.
13. _. 1999. Predicting plant migration rates in a changing world: the role of long-distance dispersal. American Naturalist 153:464-475.
14. Higgins, S. I., D. M. Richardson, R. M. Cowling, and T. H. Trinder-Smith. 1999. Predicting the landscape scale distribution of alien plants and their threats to biodiversity. Conservation Biology 13:303-313.
15. Higgins, S. I., D. M. Richardson, and R. M. Cowling. 2000. A dynamic spatial model for managing alien plant invasions at the landscape extent. Ecological Applications 10:1833-1848.
16. _. 2001. Validation of a spatial simulation model of a spreading alien plant population. Journal of Applied Ecology 38:571-584.
17. Hobbs, R. J., and L. F. Huenneke. 1992. Disturbance, diversity, and invasion: implications for conservation. Conservation Biology 6:324-337.
18. Hutchinson, T. F., and J. L. Vankat. 1997. Invasibility and effects of Amur honeysuckle in southwestern Ohio forests. Conservation Biology 11:1117-1124.
19. Iverson, L. R., and A. M. Prasad. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68:465-485.
20. King, A. W., and K. A. With. 2002. Dispersal success on spatially structured landscapes: when do spatial pattern and dispersal behavior really matter? Ecological Modelling 147:23-39.
21. Kolar, C. S., and D. M. Lodge. 2001. Progress in invasion biology: predicting invaders. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 16:199-204.
22. Lombard, A. T., R. M. Cowling, R. L. Pressey, and P. J. Mustart 1997. Reserve selection in a species-rich and fragmented landscape on the Agulhas Plain, South Africa. Conservation Biology 11:1101-1116.
23. Lonsdale, W. M. 1999. Global patterns of plant invasion and the concept of invasibility. Ecology 80:1522-1536.
24. Myers, N., R. A. Mittermeier, C. G. Mittermeier, G. A. B. da Fonseca, and J. Kent. 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853-858.
25. Newsome, A. E., and I. R. Noble. 1986. Ecological and physiological characters of invading species. Pages 1-20 in R. H. Groves and J. J. Burdon, eds. Ecology of biological invasions: an Australian perspective. Australian Academy of Science, Canberra.
26. Pontius, R. G., Jr. 2000. Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 66: 1011-1016.
27. Rejmánek, M., D. M. Richardson, S. I. Higgins, M. J. Pitcairn, and E. Grotkopp. 2004. Ecology of invasive plants: state of the art. In H. A. Mooney, J. A. McNeely, L. Neville, P. J. Schei, and J. Waage, eds. Invasive alien species: searching for solutions. Island, Washington, D.C. (in press).
28. Richardson, D. M., I. A. W. Macdonald, and R. M. Cowling. 1992. Plants and animal invasions. Pages 271-308 in R. M. Cowling, ed. The ecology of fynbos: nutrients, fire and biodiversity. Oxford University Press, Cape Town.
29. Richardson, D. M., W. J. Bond, W. R. J. Dean, S. I. Higgins, G. F. Midgley, S. Milton, L. W. Powrie, M. C. Rutherford, M. Samways, and R. E. Schulze. 2000a. Invasive aliens organisms and global change: a South African perspective. Pages 303-349 in H. A. Mooney and R. J. Hobbs, eds. The impact of global change on alien species. Island, Washington, D.C.
30. Richardson, D. M., P. Pyšek, M. Rejmánek, M. G. Barbour, F. D. Panetta, and C. J. West. 2000b. Naturalization and invasion of alien plants: concepts and definitions. Diversity and Distributions 6:93-107.
31. Richardson, D. M., M. Rejmánek, and M. Rouget. 2004. Using natural experiments in the study of alien tree invasions: opportunities and limitations. In M. Gordon and S. Bartol, eds. Experimental approaches to conservation biology. University of California Press, Berkeley (in press).
32. Rouget, M., D. M. Richardson, S. J. M. Milton, and D. Polakow. 2001. Predicting the dynamics of four invasive Pinus species in a fragmented semi-arid shrubland in South Africa. Plant Ecology 152:79-92.
33. Rouget, M., D. M. Richardson, J. A. Nel, and B. W. Van Wilgen. 2002. Commercially important trees as invasive aliens: towards spatially explicit risk assessment at a national scale. Biological Invasions 4:397-412.
34. Rouget, M., D. M. Richardson, R. M. Cowling, J. W. Lloyd, and A. T. Lombard. 2003. Current patterns of habitat transformation and future threats to biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems of the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Biological Conservation 112:63-85.
35. Schupp, E. W., and M. Fuentes. 1995. Spatial patterns of seed dispersal and the unification of plant population ecology. Ecoscience 2:267-275.
36. Venables, W. M., and B. D. Ripley. 1999. Modern applied statistics with S-Plus. Springer, New York.
37. Williamson, M. H. 1996, Biological invasions: population and community biology series. Chapman & Hall, London.