Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena

Physics in Perspective

Volumn 3, Issue 1, 2001, Pages 76-105

  Badash, Lawrence ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Carl Sagan; Climatic catastrophe; Nuclear war; Nuclear winter; Science policy; Scientific advice; Soot; Urban fires

Indexed keywords

EID: 0347710457     PISSN: 14226944     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s000160050057     Document Type: Article

References (122)

1. J. B. S. Haldane, Callinicus: A Defence of Chemical Warfare (New York: E. P. Dutton, 1925).
2. Alice Kimball Smith, A Peril and a Hope: The Scientists' Movement in America, 1945-47 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1965). See also Paul Boyer, By the Bomb's Early Light: American Thought and Culture at the Dawn of the Atomic Age (New York: Pantheon Books, 1985).
3. Alice Kimball Smith, A Peril and a Hope: The Scientists' Movement in America, 1945-47 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1965). See also Paul Boyer, By the Bomb's Early Light: American Thought and Culture at the Dawn of the Atomic Age (New York: Pantheon Books, 1985).
4. See for example Smith (ref. 2). Abram Chayes and Jerome B. Wiesner, eds., ABM: An Evaluation of the Decision to Deploy an Antiballistic Missile System (New York: Harper & Row, 1969). Sanford A. Lakoff and Herbert F. York, A Shield in Space?: Technology, Politics, and the Strategic Defense Initiative: How the Reagan Administration Set Out to Make Nuclear Weapons "Impotent and Obsolete" and Succumbed to the Fallacy of the Last Move (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989).
5. See for example Smith (ref. 2). Abram Chayes and Jerome B. Wiesner, eds., ABM: An Evaluation of the Decision to Deploy an Antiballistic Missile System (New York: Harper & Row, 1969). Sanford A. Lakoff and Herbert F. York, A Shield in Space?: Technology, Politics, and the Strategic Defense Initiative: How the Reagan Administration Set Out to Make Nuclear Weapons "Impotent and Obsolete" and Succumbed to the Fallacy of the Last Move (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989).
6. See for example Smith (ref. 2) and Boyer (ref. 2). Morton Grodzins and Eugene Rabinowitch, eds., The Atomic Age (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1965). Richard G. Hewlett and Oscar Anderson, The New World, 1939-1946: Volume 1 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1962). Richard G. Hewlett and Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield, 1947-1952: Volume 2 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1969). Dexter Masters and Katherine Way, eds., One World or None: A Report to the Public on the Full Meaning of the Atomic Bomb (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1946).
7. See for example Smith (ref. 2) and Boyer (ref. 2). Morton Grodzins and Eugene Rabinowitch, eds., The Atomic Age (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1965). Richard G. Hewlett and Oscar Anderson, The New World, 1939-1946: Volume 1 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1962). Richard G. Hewlett and Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield, 1947-1952: Volume 2 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1969). Dexter Masters and Katherine Way, eds., One World or None: A Report to the Public on the Full Meaning of the Atomic Bomb (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1946).
8. See for example Smith (ref. 2) and Boyer (ref. 2). Morton Grodzins and Eugene Rabinowitch, eds., The Atomic Age (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1965). Richard G. Hewlett and Oscar Anderson, The New World, 1939-1946: Volume 1 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1962). Richard G. Hewlett and Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield, 1947-1952: Volume 2 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1969). Dexter Masters and Katherine Way, eds., One World or None: A Report to the Public on the Full Meaning of the Atomic Bomb (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1946).
9. See for example Smith (ref. 2) and Boyer (ref. 2). Morton Grodzins and Eugene Rabinowitch, eds., The Atomic Age (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1965). Richard G. Hewlett and Oscar Anderson, The New World, 1939-1946: Volume 1 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1962). Richard G. Hewlett and Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield, 1947-1952: Volume 2 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1969). Dexter Masters and Katherine Way, eds., One World or None: A Report to the Public on the Full Meaning of the Atomic Bomb (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1946).
10. See for example Richard G. Hewlett and Jack M. Holl, Atoms for Peace and War, 1953-1961: Eisenhower and the Atomic Energy Commission: Volume 3 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989). Herman Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable (New York: Avon Books, 1962). Bruce L. R. Smith, The RAND Corporation: Case Study of a Nonprofit Advisory Corporation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966).
11. See for example Richard G. Hewlett and Jack M. Holl, Atoms for Peace and War, 1953-1961: Eisenhower and the Atomic Energy Commission: Volume 3 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989). Herman Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable (New York: Avon Books, 1962). Bruce L. R. Smith, The RAND Corporation: Case Study of a Nonprofit Advisory Corporation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966).
12. See for example Richard G. Hewlett and Jack M. Holl, Atoms for Peace and War, 1953-1961: Eisenhower and the Atomic Energy Commission: Volume 3 of a History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989). Herman Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable (New York: Avon Books, 1962). Bruce L. R. Smith, The RAND Corporation: Case Study of a Nonprofit Advisory Corporation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966).
13. See for example Hewlett and Holl (ref. 5). Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 2nd edition (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1989). Gregg Herken, Counsels of War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987). Richard Smoke, National Security and the Nuclear Dilemma, 3rd edition (New York: McGraw Hill, 1993).
14. See for example Hewlett and Holl (ref. 5). Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 2nd edition (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1989). Gregg Herken, Counsels of War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987). Richard Smoke, National Security and the Nuclear Dilemma, 3rd edition (New York: McGraw Hill, 1993).
15. See for example Hewlett and Holl (ref. 5). Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 2nd edition (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1989). Gregg Herken, Counsels of War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987). Richard Smoke, National Security and the Nuclear Dilemma, 3rd edition (New York: McGraw Hill, 1993).
16. See for example Herken (ref. 6) and Smoke (ref. 6). Richard G. Hewlett and Francis Duncan, Nuclear Navy, 1946-1962 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1974). Milton S. Katz, Ban the Bomb: A History of SANE, the Committee for a Sane Nuclear Policy, 1957-1985 (New York: Greenwood Press, 1986).
17. See for example Herken (ref. 6) and Smoke (ref. 6). Richard G. Hewlett and Francis Duncan, Nuclear Navy, 1946-1962 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1974). Milton S. Katz, Ban the Bomb: A History of SANE, the Committee for a Sane Nuclear Policy, 1957-1985 (New York: Greenwood Press, 1986).
18. Boyer (ref. 2), pp. 360-67. See also Herken (ref. 6) and Smoke (ref. 6). Paul R. Loeb, Hope in Hard Times: America's Peace Movement and the Reagan Era (Lexington, MA: D. C. Heath, 1987).
19. Carl Sagan, "The nuclear winter," Parade (October 30, 1983), 4-7.
20. Paul R. Ehrlich, Carl Sagan, Donald Kennedy, and Walter Orr Roberts, The Cold and the Dark: The World After Nuclear War (New York: W. W. Norton, 1984) presents the proceedings of this conference.
21. R. Turco, O. B. Toon, T. Ackerman, J. B. Pollack, and C. Sagan, "Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions," Science 222 (December 23, 1983), 1283-92.
22. Paul J. Crutzen and John W. Birks, "The atmosphere after a nuclear war: Twilight at noon," Ambio 11:2-3 (June 1982), 114-25.
23. Turco, et al. (ref. 11).
24. Paul R. Ehrlich, et al., "Long-term biological consequences of nuclear war," Science 222 (December 23, 1983), 1293-1300.
25. Freeman J. Dyson, Infinite in All Directions (New York: Harper & Row, 1988), p. 264.
26. See for example Eric Pace, "Methodist bishops back pastoral letter denouncing rise of nuclear arms," New York Times, (April 30, 1986), A15. John J. Goldman, "Methodists reject nuclear deterrence," Los Angeles Times, (April 30, 1986), I11. Marjorie Hyer, "Methodist bishops blast SDI, A-arms," Washington Post, (April 30, 1986), A1.
27. See for example Eric Pace, "Methodist bishops back pastoral letter denouncing rise of nuclear arms," New York Times, (April 30, 1986), A15. John J. Goldman, "Methodists reject nuclear deterrence," Los Angeles Times, (April 30, 1986), I11. Marjorie Hyer, "Methodist bishops blast SDI, A-arms," Washington Post, (April 30, 1986), A1.
28. See for example Eric Pace, "Methodist bishops back pastoral letter denouncing rise of nuclear arms," New York Times, (April 30, 1986), A15. John J. Goldman, "Methodists reject nuclear deterrence," Los Angeles Times, (April 30, 1986), I11. Marjorie Hyer, "Methodist bishops blast SDI, A-arms," Washington Post, (April 30, 1986), A1.
29. Ellen Goodman, "Can world survive another Reagan term?" Los Angeles Times, (November 4, 1983), II7. Theodore Draper, "Dear Mr. Weinberger: An open reply to an open letter," New York Review of Books 29 (November 4, 1982), 26-31. "On nuclear war: An exchange with the Secretary of Defense," New York Review of Books 30 (August 18, 1983), 27-33. Walter Isaacson, "Fighting the backbiting," Time 118 (November 16, 1981), 22-23. David M. Alpern, "There they go again," Newsweek 98 (November 16, 1981), 32-33.
30. Ellen Goodman, "Can world survive another Reagan term?" Los Angeles Times, (November 4, 1983), II7. Theodore Draper, "Dear Mr. Weinberger: An open reply to an open letter," New York Review of Books 29 (November 4, 1982), 26-31. "On nuclear war: An exchange with the Secretary of Defense," New York Review of Books 30 (August 18, 1983), 27-33. Walter Isaacson, "Fighting the backbiting," Time 118 (November 16, 1981), 22-23. David M. Alpern, "There they go again," Newsweek 98 (November 16, 1981), 32-33.
31. Ellen Goodman, "Can world survive another Reagan term?" Los Angeles Times, (November 4, 1983), II7. Theodore Draper, "Dear Mr. Weinberger: An open reply to an open letter," New York Review of Books 29 (November 4, 1982), 26-31. "On nuclear war: An exchange with the Secretary of Defense," New York Review of Books 30 (August 18, 1983), 27-33. Walter Isaacson, "Fighting the backbiting," Time 118 (November 16, 1981), 22-23. David M. Alpern, "There they go again," Newsweek 98 (November 16, 1981), 32-33.
32. Ellen Goodman, "Can world survive another Reagan term?" Los Angeles Times, (November 4, 1983), II7. Theodore Draper, "Dear Mr. Weinberger: An open reply to an open letter," New York Review of Books 29 (November 4, 1982), 26-31. "On nuclear war: An exchange with the Secretary of Defense," New York Review of Books 30 (August 18, 1983), 27-33. Walter Isaacson, "Fighting the backbiting," Time 118 (November 16, 1981), 22-23. David M. Alpern, "There they go again," Newsweek 98 (November 16, 1981), 32-33.
33. Ellen Goodman, "Can world survive another Reagan term?" Los Angeles Times, (November 4, 1983), II7. Theodore Draper, "Dear Mr. Weinberger: An open reply to an open letter," New York Review of Books 29 (November 4, 1982), 26-31. "On nuclear war: An exchange with the Secretary of Defense," New York Review of Books 30 (August 18, 1983), 27-33. Walter Isaacson, "Fighting the backbiting," Time 118 (November 16, 1981), 22-23. David M. Alpern, "There they go again," Newsweek 98 (November 16, 1981), 32-33.
34. Tom Wicker, "A grim agreement," New York Times, (December 12, 1983), A27.
35. US Congress, House, Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, The Consequences of Nuclear War on the Global Environment, Hearing, 97th Congress, 2nd Session, September 15, 1982, iii, 164, 176-77.
36. Testimony by James P. Friend, ibid., pp. 115-21.
37. Testimony by Frank von Hippel, ibid., p. 162.
38. Teller apparently was not above misrepresenting technical data to achieve his own political goals. Whistle blowers at the Livermore Laboratory charged him with presenting glowing progress reports to the White House on the X-ray laser, a major component of the Strategic Defense Initiative, while simultaneously receiving internal reports detailing enormous problems with no obvious solutions to them. See Deborah Blum, McClatchy News Service, "Probe reveals letter: Document says scientist misrepresented progress on 'Star Wars,'" Daily Nexus (University of California, Santa Barbara student newspaper), (March 2, 1988), 6. See also William Broad, Teller's War: The Top-Secret Story Behind the Star Wars Deception (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992).
39. Teller apparently was not above misrepresenting technical data to achieve his own political goals. Whistle blowers at the Livermore Laboratory charged him with presenting glowing progress reports to the White House on the X-ray laser, a major component of the Strategic Defense Initiative, while simultaneously receiving internal reports detailing enormous problems with no obvious solutions to them. See Deborah Blum, McClatchy News Service, "Probe reveals letter: Document says scientist misrepresented progress on 'Star Wars,'" Daily Nexus (University of California, Santa Barbara student newspaper), (March 2, 1988), 6. See also William Broad, Teller's War: The Top-Secret Story Behind the Star Wars Deception (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992).
40. Edward Teller, "Dangerous myths about nuclear arms," Reader's Digest 121 (November 1982), 139-44.
41. Ibid., p. 143.
42. R. Turco, et al., "Global consequences of nuclear 'warfare,'" Eos; Transactions, American Geophysical Union 63 (November 9, 1982), 1018.
43. Sagan interview by L. Badash, December 26, 1984. Turco interview by L. Badash and B. Kirtman, February 20, 1985.
44. Sagan interview by L. Badash, December 26, 1984. Carl Sagan and Richard Turco, A Path Where No Man Thought: Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race (New York: Random House, 1990), pp. 461-62. For the events in Washington, see Richard Halloran, "President is grim," New York Times, (December 8, 1982), A1, and David Shribman, "Man slain in capital monument threat," New York Times, (December 9, 1982), A1.
45. Sagan interview by L. Badash, December 26, 1984. Carl Sagan and Richard Turco, A Path Where No Man Thought: Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race (New York: Random House, 1990), pp. 461-62. For the events in Washington, see Richard Halloran, "President is grim," New York Times, (December 8, 1982), A1, and David Shribman, "Man slain in capital monument threat," New York Times, (December 9, 1982), A1.
46. Sagan interview by L. Badash, December 26, 1984. Carl Sagan and Richard Turco, A Path Where No Man Thought: Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race (New York: Random House, 1990), pp. 461-62. For the events in Washington, see Richard Halloran, "President is grim," New York Times, (December 8, 1982), A1, and David Shribman, "Man slain in capital monument threat," New York Times, (December 9, 1982), A1.
47. Turco, Toon, and Ackerman letter to the editor, National Review 38 (January 31, 1986), 4, 10.
48. Sagan and Turco, Path (ref. 27), pp. 461-62.
49. Anon., "NASA withdraws presentation," Aviation Week & Space Technology 117 (December 20, 1982), 67. Turco interview by L. Badash and B. Kirtman, February 20, 1985.
50. Anon., "NASA withdraws presentation," Aviation Week & Space Technology 117 (December 20, 1982), 67. Turco interview by L. Badash and B. Kirtman, February 20, 1985.
51. Sagan and Turco, Path (ref. 27), p. 463. R. D. Speed to A. Field, "Review of Global Consequences of Nuclear 'War'," R&D Associates interoffice correspondence, April 13, 1983. This document was obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request by the Natural Resources Defense Council (hereafter NRDC file) in 1984, and was provided by NRDC attorney S. Jacob Scherr.
52. Sagan and Turco, Path (ref. 27), p. 463. R. D. Speed to A. Field, "Review of Global Consequences of Nuclear 'War'," R&D Associates interoffice correspondence, April 13, 1983. This document was obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request by the Natural Resources Defense Council (hereafter NRDC file) in 1984, and was provided by NRDC attorney S. Jacob Scherr.
53. Turco interview on radio program "Fire and ice: Nuclear winter, part 2," in the series Prescription for Survival, no. 17, Pacifica Radio Archive, 1983, cat. no. KZ1379.
54. Sagan interview by L. Badash, December 26, 1984.
55. Ibid.
56. Ibid. Sagan and Turco, Path (ref. 27), p. 465.
57. Ibid. Sagan and Turco, Path (ref. 27), p. 465.
58. James Beggs letter to Craig Fuller, August 23, 1983, attached to G. W. Woodwell letter to Hans Mark, July 11, 1983, Ronald Reagan Library, WHORM Subject File ND018 167459.
59. Al Hill, Council on Environmental Quality, memorandum to William Clark, NSC, and others, July 13, 1983, Ronald Reagan Library, WHORM Subject File, MC 156598.
60. George W. Ullrich, DNA, "Memorandum for the record: National Academy of Sciences study on global nuclear war," October 14, 1983, NRDC file.
61. Jeanne Vaughn Mattison and Adm. Noel Gayler, USN-Ret., former Commander-in-Chief Pacific Fleet and former head of the National Security Agency, letter to William Clark, September 27, 1983; Ray Pollock memo to Clark, October 5, 1983; Clark letter to Mattison, nd but October 1983, all in Ronald Reagan Library, WHORM Subject File FG006-01 182481.
62. Sagan interview by L. Badash, December 26, 1984. Slightly different wording for the quote is given in Richard Turco, "Carl Sagan and nuclear winter," in Yervant Terzian and Elizabeth Bilson, eds., Carl Sagan's Universe (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 239-46, on 243.
63. Sagan, "The atmospheric and climatic consequences of nuclear war," in Paul R. Ehrlich, Carl Sagan, Donald Kennedy, and Walter Orr Roberts, The Cold and the Dark: The World After Nuclear War (New York: W. W. Norton, 1984), p. 35.
64. Transcript of "Nightline," November 1, 1983 (New York: ABC, 1983), 10 pp.
65. Philip J. Hilts, "'Nuclear winter' catastrophe confirmed by Soviet scientists," Washington Post, (November 2, 1983), A8.
66. Constance Holden, "Scientists describe 'nuclear winter,'" Science 222 (November 18, 1983), 822-23, quotes on 822.
67. Joseph P. Evans, "The big chill: Learning about 'nuclear winter,'" Commonweal 111 (April 20, 1984), 231-32.
68. Robert J. Lieber and Dan Horowitz, "Live, die: moot point," New York Times, (November 20, 1983), E21.
69. "Fire and ice" (ref. 32).
70. Anon., "A cold, dark apocalypse," Time 122 (November 14, 1983), 43.
71. Robert Reinhold, "Scientists urge more effort to cut atom risk," New York Times, (April 28, 1982), A15.
72. Laura Tangley, "After nuclear war - a nuclear winter," BioScience 34 (January 1984), 6-9, quote on 9.
73. Sharon Begley, "Nuclear war: The long view," Newsweek 102 (November 7, 1983), 137.
74. Stephen H. Schneider and Randi Londer, The Coevolution of Climate and Life (San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1984), p. 361.
75. Paul R. Ehrlich, "The nuclear winter: Discovering the ecology of nuclear war," The Amicus Journal, 5 (Winter 1984), 20-30, quote on 20.
76. Henning Rodhe, "A nuclear winter," Ambio 13:1 (1984), 43-44, quote on 44.
77. David Shribman, "Senate rejects move to make nuclear freeze an immediate goal," New York Times, (November 1, 1983), A12.
78. Philip Shabecoff, "U.S.-Soviet panel sees no hope in an atomic war," New York Times, (December 9, 1983), A13. Lauren Silverman, "U.S. and Soviet experts say nuclear war would destroy human race," Los Angeles Times, (December 9, 1983), 19. Sagan, et al., "Nuclear winter: The world-wide consequences of nuclear war," UNESCO Courier 38 (May 1985), 26-31. This is an abridged transcript of the December 8, 1983 forum in the Senate Caucus Room. A longer, but still abridged, transcript is printed as "Washington Forum on the World-Wide Consequences of Nuclear War," Disarmament, A Periodic Review by the United Nations 7 (Autumn 1984), 32-62.
79. Philip Shabecoff, "U.S.-Soviet panel sees no hope in an atomic war," New York Times, (December 9, 1983), A13. Lauren Silverman, "U.S. and Soviet experts say nuclear war would destroy human race," Los Angeles Times, (December 9, 1983), 19. Sagan, et al., "Nuclear winter: The world-wide consequences of nuclear war," UNESCO Courier 38 (May 1985), 26-31. This is an abridged transcript of the December 8, 1983 forum in the Senate Caucus Room. A longer, but still abridged, transcript is printed as "Washington Forum on the World-Wide Consequences of Nuclear War," Disarmament, A Periodic Review by the United Nations 7 (Autumn 1984), 32-62.
80. Philip Shabecoff, "U.S.-Soviet panel sees no hope in an atomic war," New York Times, (December 9, 1983), A13. Lauren Silverman, "U.S. and Soviet experts say nuclear war would destroy human race," Los Angeles Times, (December 9, 1983), 19. Sagan, et al., "Nuclear winter: The world-wide consequences of nuclear war," UNESCO Courier 38 (May 1985), 26-31. This is an abridged transcript of the December 8, 1983 forum in the Senate Caucus Room. A longer, but still abridged, transcript is printed as "Washington Forum on the World-Wide Consequences of Nuclear War," Disarmament, A Periodic Review by the United Nations 7 (Autumn 1984), 32-62.
81. Philip Shabecoff, "U.S.-Soviet panel sees no hope in an atomic war," New York Times, (December 9, 1983), A13. Lauren Silverman, "U.S. and Soviet experts say nuclear war would destroy human race," Los Angeles Times, (December 9, 1983), 19. Sagan, et al., "Nuclear winter: The world-wide consequences of nuclear war," UNESCO Courier 38 (May 1985), 26-31. This is an abridged transcript of the December 8, 1983 forum in the Senate Caucus Room. A longer, but still abridged, transcript is printed as "Washington Forum on the World-Wide Consequences of Nuclear War," Disarmament, A Periodic Review by the United Nations 7 (Autumn 1984), 32-62.
82. Anon., "Atom attack impact assayed," New York Times, (December 7, 1983), A20.
83. Jeffrey L. Fox, "Will there be life on the farm after the bomb?" Science 222 (December 23, 1983), 1308.
84. An example of the criticism is Jennifer Leaning and Langley Keyes, eds., The Counterfeit Ark: Crisis Relocation for Nuclear War (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1984). This book was sponsored by Physicians for Social Responsibility.
85. UNESCO Courier (ref. 56), pp. 29-31.
86. Tom Wicker, "A grim agreement," New York Times, (December 12, 1983), A27.
87. UNESCO Courier (ref. 56), pp. 28-29.
88. Disarmament (ref. 56), p. 41.
89. A. D. Horne, "Nuclear climate more lethal than predicted, Soviets say," Washington Post, (December 9, 1983), A44.
90. Anon., "U.S. - Soviet forum on nuclear winter," F.A.S. Public Interest Report (Federation of American Scientists) 37 (January 1984), 1.
91. Shabecoff and Silverman (ref. 56).
92. FAS (ref. 65), p. 1.
93. Ibid.
94. Sagan interview by L. Badash, December 26, 1984.
95. Leon Gouré, "Soviet scientists as shills for a freeze," Washington Times, (December 19, 1983), C1.
96. Holden (ref. 44), quotes on p. 823.
97. George W. Ullrich, DNA, memo (apparently to himself), May 11, 1982, NRDC file.
98. Ibid., May 12, 1982, NRDC file.
99. See Robert Scheer, With Enough Shovels: Reagan, Bush and Nuclear War (New York: Random House, 1982).
100. Lee M. Hunt, executive director, Naval Studies Board, NRC, letter to T. K. Jones, June 11, 1982, NRDC file.
101. T. K. Jones memo to Dr. Gordon Soper, June 21, 1982, NRDC file.
102. Edward E. Conrad memo to T. K. Jones, August 5, 1982, NRDC file.
103. J. McGahan, SAI, memos to D. Auton, DNA, July 22 and 28, 1982, NRDC file.
104. NAS Proposal for the Support of the Workshop on Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Weapons Detonations, November 15, 1982, NRDC file.
105. J. A. Lyons, "Memorandum for the Chief of Naval Operations: 'The World After Nuclear War,'" November 7, 1983, 65B Memo 393/A112102-07 and two enclosures, NRDC file.
106. Ibid. The Soviet Union ultimately disappointed American scientists by not providing data on aerosols from large fires. Their lead scientist, Vladimir Aleksandrov, disappeared in Spain and has not been found; suspicions were levied against both the CIA and KGB.
107. Lyons (ref. 80).
108. Thomas Powers, "Nuclear winter and nuclear strategy," Atlantic Monthly 254 (November 1984), 53-64, quote on 59.
109. Editorial, "The winter after the bomb," New York Times, (November 6, 1983), E20.
110. Leo Szilard, "'Minimal deterrent' vs. saturation parity," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 20 (March 1964), 6-12. The concept continues to find favor. In a talk at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 1990, physicist Herbert York proposed a force of one hundred weapons. This talk appears as a chapter entitled "Minimum deterrence," in York, Arms and the Physicist (Woodbury, NY: American Institute of Physics Press, 1995), pp. 273-77.
111. Leo Szilard, "'Minimal deterrent' vs. saturation parity," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 20 (March 1964), 6-12. The concept continues to find favor. In a talk at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 1990, physicist Herbert York proposed a force of one hundred weapons. This talk appears as a chapter entitled "Minimum deterrence," in York, Arms and the Physicist (Woodbury, NY: American Institute of Physics Press, 1995), pp. 273-77.
112. Judy Mann, "Threshold," Washington Post, (November 11, 1983), B1.
113. Carl Sagan, "Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications," Foreign Affairs 62 (Winter 1983-84), 257-92, quote on 257-58.
114. Ibid., p. 257.
115. Ibid., p. 258.
116. Ibid., p. 275.
117. Ibid., pp. 275-78.
118. Ibid., pp. 279-80.
119. Ibid., pp. 282-83.
120. Ibid., pp. 283-85.
121. Ibid., pp. 285-86.
122. Caspar W. Weinberger, "The potential effects of nuclear war on the climate: A report to the United States Congress" (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, March 1985).