On Setting Response Criteria for Calibrated Subjective Probability Estimates

Journal of Mathematical Psychology

Volumn 45, Issue 4, 2001, Pages 551-563

  Gu, Hongbin ^a   Wallsten, Thomas S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0346942398     PISSN: 00222496     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1006/jmps.2000.1337     Document Type: Article

References (16)

1. Budescu D. V., Wallsten T. S. Subjective estimation of precise and vague uncertainties. Wright G., Ayton P. Judgmental forecasting. 1987;63-82 Wiley, Chichester.
2. Budescu D. V., Wallsten T. S., Au W. T. On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment. II: Applying the stochastic judgment model to detect systematic trends. Journal of Behavioral and Decision Making. 10:1997;173-188.
3. Ferrell W. R., McGoey P. J. A model of calibration for subjective probabilities. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 26:1980;32-53.
4. Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U., Kleinbölting H. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review. 98:1991;506-528.
5. Juslin P., Olsson H., Winman A. The calibration issue: Theoretical comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell (1996). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 73:1998;3-26.
6. Juslin P., Winman A., Olsson H. Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect. Psychological Review. 107:2000;384-396.
7. Keren G. Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica. 77:1991;217-273.
8. Koriat A., Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B. Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory. 6:1980;107-118.
9. Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B., Phillips L. D. Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. 1982;306-334 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
10. Luce R. D. On the possible psychophysical laws. Psychological Review. 2:1959;31-95.
11. Murphy A. H., Brown B. G. A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States. Journal of Forecasting. 3:1984;369-393.
12. Sniezek J. A., Paese P. W., Switzer F. S. I. The effect of choosing on confidence in choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 46:1990;264-282.
13. Suantak L., Bolger F., Ferrell W. R. The hard-easy effect in subjective probability calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 67:1996;201-221.
14. Wallsten T. S., Budescu D. V., Zwick R., Kemp S. M. Preference and reasons for communicating probabilistic information in numerical or verbal terms. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society. 31:1993;135-138.
15. Wallsten T. S., González-Vallejo C. Statement verification: A stochastic model of judgment and response. Psychological Review. 101:1994;490-504.
16. Yates J. F. External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 30:1982;132-156.