A longer-term outlook on future energy systems

International Journal of Global Energy Issues

Volumn 14, Issue 1-4, 2000, Pages 348-373

  Schrattenholzer, Leo ^a   Fujie, Yoshiyuke ^a   Criqui, Patrick ^b   Soete, Luc ^d   Van Zon, Adriaan ^d   Herrmann, Dieter ^c  

^a Schlossplatz 1   (Austria)

^b Inst d'Econ de Polit de l'Ener   (France)

^c UNIVERSITY OF STUTTGART   (Germany)

^d NONE

Author keywords

Long term scenarios; R D strategies; RTD policy; Technology assessment

Indexed keywords

EID: 0346346296     PISSN: 09547118     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1504/ijgei.2000.004440     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy Council (1998) Global energy perspective in Nakicenovic, N., Grübler, A. and McDonald, A (Editors), Cambridge University Press, World Wide Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ECS.
2. Bos, E. and Vu, M.T. (1994) World population projections: estimates and projections with related demographic statistics, 1994-1995 Edition, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA.
3. Nakicenovic, N., Grübler, A., Inaba, A., Messner, S., Nilsson, S., Nishimura, Y., Rogner, H. -H., Schäfer A., Schrattenholzer, L., Strubegger, M., Swisher, J., Victor, D. and Wilson, D., (1993) 'Long-term strategies for mitigating global warming', Special Issue of Energy-The International Journal, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 401-609.
4. Wigley, T.M.L. et al. (1994) Model for the assessment of greenhouse-gas induced climate change version 1.2, Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK.
5. The calculations also included non-energy sector greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions taken from the previous IPCC IS92 scenario series [25].
6. Mathieu, P., Iantovski, E. and Nihart, R. (1998) 'The zero emission matiant cycle - technical issues of a novel technology', Proceedings of the Workshop 'Zero-Emission Power Plants', held at the University of Liège, 26 January, Liège, Belgium.
7. 2 atmospheric emission', Proceedings of ASME ASIA 97, Singapore.
8. Rasmussen N.B. (1998) 'Combined heat and power based on the MATIANT concept', Proceedings of the Workshop 'Zero-Emission Power Plants', held at the University of Liège, 26 January, Liège, Belgium.
9. See [26,27] for a critical discussion of the predominant features of mission-oriented projects.
10. This can be achieved through research and procurement policies which encourage co-operative development projects and parallel research by several organisations, though there is also a need for lead institutes that can fulfil both a leading research role and assist in the coordination of co-operative projects based on contracting-out to private and public organisations.
11. Associated for instance with the transition to a hydrogen economy.
12. The danger of failure to find a radical breakthrough over a time period that is relevant for a firm is one of the reasons why publicly funded R&D may be necessary to develop alternative energy conversion options next to existing ones. This is because, ideally, a democratic government would try to protect both the short-term and the long-term interests of the population they represent.
13. The latter case includes well-known examples such as chlorinated fluorocarbons (CFCs) used in refrigeration and which reduced food wastage, but damaged the ozone layer, DDT which provided protection from mosquito-borne diseases but killed beneficial insects, and irrigation schemes which increased agricultural land but in some cases led to salination problems and, paradoxically, to desertification. The former case is more difficult to document because examples are often controversial. Possible candidates include computers, which were originally developed for military use, and recombinant DNA techniques, which have raised concerns about the accidental development of new pathogens.
14. See, for instance, Romer [28] and Aghion and Howitt [29] on this subject.
15. For example, experience gained from generating electricity from photovoltaic cells in the few situations (niche markets) where this technology is economically competitive should lead to learning effects that gradually improve the cost effectiveness of photovoltaic cells and increase its competitiveness. Increasing competitiveness should then attract additional investment in this technology, leading to further technical improvements and cost reductions and a widening of the number of economically feasible applications.
16. See, for example, Meadows [30] who develop a simulation model for sustainable development based on estimates of world resources, population growth, rates of technological change, and pollution sources and sinks. They argue, on the basis of their model, that a major change towards environmentally sustainable growth and technologies is required to avoid severe economic and social problems on a global level at some time within the next century. Pearce et al. [31] argue for sustainable growth in order to improve the quality of life of both current and future generations.
17. Environmental goals are listed in Articles 130R, S, and T of the 1987 Single European Act amendments to the Treaty of Rome (Wright, 1991) and in the same Articles of the Maastricht Treaty.
18. European Commission, (1997) Second European report on science and technology indicators, DG XII Science, Research and Development, Brussels/Luxembourg.
19. An example is the use of catalytic converters to reduce noxious gases in the exhaust of internal combustion engines, instead of developing an alternative type of engine that does not produce noxious gases in the first place.
20. End-of-pipe technologies are designed to clean the waste stream of industrial processes. An example is scrubbers to remove sulfur dioxide from coal-fired electrical plants. Some end-of-pipe technologies can function as cleaner process technologies if the retrieved compound can be recycled, however, thereby reducing inputs.
21. Lower input/output ratios have been technically feasible, as shown by the average 20% fall in energy intensity of GDP in the EC between the first major increase in energy costs in 1973 and 1988. Energy intensity in Denmark fell by 33% in this time period [32]. It should be noted though that there is a clear structural component here, as apparent from the decrease in importance of the industrial sectors in Europe, and the increase of the services sectors. This implies that the proportional savings figures reported here are not readily applicable to the long term.
22. This conclusion is illustrated mathematically by Pearce & Turner [33] but in some cases a reduction in inputs will not be environmentally beneficial. This cannot be determined without considering the direct and indirect effects of reducing input requirements, because technologies to reduce inputs may increase environmental problems elsewhere. For example, energy-saving processes that require elaborate computer control systems could increase the use of toxic substances in the production of integrated circuits. The difficulty in assessing the environmental effect of a technology is compounded by international trade in materials and waste products.
23. The effect on costs was not known for three projects at the time of the evaluation [34].
24. This point is emphasized by Porter [35] and by Bill Clinton in an article outlining the environmental policy of the Democratic administration in the US (The Guardian, November 9, 1992). Jochem & Hohmeyer [36] illustrate the argument with data for Germany, which shows that German exports of energy saving products increased in the 1980s at twice the rate of all other industrial exports.
25. Pepper, W.J., Leggett, J., Swart, R., Wasson, J., Edmonds, J. and Mintzer, I. (1992) 'Emissions scenarios for the IPCC. An update: assumptions, methodology, and results', support document for chapter A3, in Houghton, J.T., Callandar, B.A., and Varney, S.K. (Editors) Climate change 1992: supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
26. Ergas, H. (1987), 'Does technology policy matter?' in Guile, B. and Brooks, H. (Editors), Technology and Global Competition, Washington, National Academy Press.
27. Ergas, H. (1992), 'A future for mission-oriented industrial policies? A critical review of developments in Europe,' mimeo, Paris, OECD.
28. Romer, P. (1990) 'Endogenous technological change', Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, pp. 71-102.
29. Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. (1992) 'A model of growth through creative destruction', Econometrica 60, pp. 323-351.
30. Meadows, D.H., Meadow, D.L. and Randers, J. (1992) Beyond the limits: global collapse or a sustainable future?, London, Earthscan.
31. Pearce, D., Markandya, A., and Barbier, E.B. (1989) Blueprint for a green economy, London, Earthscan.
32. Freeman, C., (1992) 'A green techno-economic paradigm for the world economy', in Freeman, C. The economics of Hope, London, Pinter, pp. 190-211.
33. Pearce, D. and Turner, R.K. (1984) 'The economic evaluation of low and non-waste technologies', Resources and Conservation, Vol. 11, pp. 27-43.
34. Dieleman, H. and de Hoo, S. (1991) 'PRISMA; the development of a preventative, multi media strategy for government and industry', in Fischer, K. and Schot, J. (Editors) Environmental strategies for industry: international perspectives on research needs and policy implications, Washington, DC, Island Press, pp. 245-75.
35. Porter, M. (1990) The competitive advantage of nations, New York, Free Press
36. Jochem, E. and Hohmeyer, O. (1992) 'The economics of near-term reductions in greenhouse gases', in Mintzer, I. (Editor) Confronting climate change risks, implications, and responses, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.