Tests for Long-Run Relationships in Hardwood Lumber Prices

Forest Science

Volumn 49, Issue 6, 2003, Pages 918-927

  Luppold, William G ^a   Prestemon, Jeffrey P ^a  

^a USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

Author keywords

Cointegration; Posterior information criterion; Vector autoregression

Indexed keywords

HARDWOODS; INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS; LUMBER;

AUTOREGRESSIONS;

FORESTRY;

ECONOMICS; FORESTRY; HARDWOODS; LUMBER;

EID: 0346120005     PISSN: 0015749X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. ALAVALAPATI, J.R.R., W.L. ADAMOWICZ, AND M.K. LUCKERT. 1997. A cointegration analysis of Canadian wood pulp prices. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 79(3):975-986.
2. BUONGIORNO, J., AND J. UUSIVUORI. 1992. The law of one price in the trade of forest products: Co-integration tests for U.S. exports of pulp and paper. For. Sci. 38(3):539-553.
3. CHAO, J.C., AND P.C.B. PHILLIPS. 1999. Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure. J. Economet. 91(2):227-271.
4. DICKEY, D.A., AND W.A. FULLER. 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 74(366):427-431.
5. ENGLE, R.F., AND C.W.J. GRANGER. 1987. Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55(2):251-276.
6. FRYE, L.R. 1996. The most popular furniture woods: The historic perspective. Wood Wood Prod. 100(14):304-307.
7. GONZALO, J. 1994. Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships. J. Economet. 60(1/2):203-233.
8. GREDENHOFF, M., AND S. KARLSSON. 1999. Lag-length selection in VAR models using equal and unequal lag-length procedures. Comp. Stat. 14(2.99):171-187.
9. HAIGHT, R.G., AND T.P. HOLMES. 1991. Stochastic price models and optimal tree cutting: Results for loblolly pine. Natur. Resour. Model. 5(4):423-443.
10. HALL, A. 1994. Testing for a unit root in time series with pretest data-based model selection. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 12(4):461-470.
11. HÄNNINEN, R.A. 1998. The law of one price in United Kingdom soft sawnwood imports - a cointegration approach. For. Sci. 44(1):17-23.
12. HARDWOOD MARKET REPORT. 1953-2002. A. Lemsky (ed., 1953-1987), H. Jones (ed., 1987-2002). Memphis, TN.
13. HSEU, S., AND J. BUONGIORNO. 1993. Price elasticities of substitution between species in the demand of U.S. softwood lumber imports from Canada. Can J. For. Res. 23(4):591-597.
14. JOHANSEN, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. J. Econ. Dyn. Control 12(2/3):231-254.
15. JOHANSEN, S. 1991. Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica 59(6):1551-1580.
16. JUNG, C., AND K. DOROODIAN. 1994. The law of one price for U.S. softwood lumber: A multivariate cointegration test. For. Sci. 40(4):595-599.
17. LEWANDROWSKI, J.K., M.K. WOHLGENANT, AND T.J. GRENNES. 1994. Finished product inventories and price expectations in the softwood lumber industry. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 76(1):83-93.
18. LUPPOLD, W.G. 1983. The effect of changes in lumber and furniture prices on wood furniture manufacturers' lumber use. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. NE-514. 8 p.
19. LUPPOLD, W.G. 1996. An explanation of hardwood lumber pricing. For. Prod. J. 46(5):52-55.
20. MURRAY, B.C., AND D.N. WEAR. 1998. Federal timber restrictions and interregional arbitrage in U.S. lumber. Land Econ. 74(1):76-91.
21. NAGUBADI, V., I.A. MUNN, AND A. TAHAI. 2001. Integration of hardwood stumpage markets in the southcentral United States. J. For. Econ. 7(1):69-98.
22. PANSHIN, A.J., AND C. DEZEEUW. 1980. Textbook of wood technology: Structure, identification, properties, and uses of the commercial woods of the United States and Canada. Ed. 4. McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York. 722 p.
23. PHILLIPS, P.C.B., AND W. PLOBERGER. 1996. An asymptotic theory of Bayesian inference for time series. Econometrica 64(2):381-412.
24. PHILLIPS, P.C.B., AND W. PLOBERGER. 1996. An asymptotic theory of Bayesian inference for time series. Econometrica 64(2):381-412.
25. PRESTEMON, J.P., AND T.P. HOLMES. 2000. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 82(1):145-160.
26. REINSEL, G.C., AND S.K. AHN. 1992. Vector autoregressive models with unit roots and reduced rank structure: estimation, likelihood ratio test, and forecasting. J. Time Ser. Anal. 13(4):353-375.
27. SAID, S.E., AND D.A. DICKEY. 1984. Testing for unit roots in autoregressive moving average models of unknown order. Biometrika 71(3):599-607.
28. SCHIFF, A. 1999. Forecasting New Zealand's real GDP with evolving Bayes models. Masters of Commerce Diss., Univ. of Auckland, NZ. 112 p.
29. SCHNUTE, J. 1987. Data uncertainty, model ambiguity, and model identification. Natur. Resour. Model. 2(2):159-212.
30. STOCK, J., AND M. WATSON. 1988. Testing for common trends. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 83(404):1097-1107.
31. TODA, H.Y., AND P.C.B. PHILLIPS. 1994. Vector autoregressions and causality: A theoretical overview and simulation study. Economet. Rev. 13(2):259-285.
32. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. 2001. Current industrial reports. Lumber production and mill stocks. U.S. Census Bureau. MA321T(99)-1.
33. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. 2002. CPI - all urban consumers (current series). Available online at http:// 146.142.4.24/; accessed by authors June 18, 2002.
34. URI, N.D., AND R. BOYD. 1990. Considerations on modeling the market for softwood lumber in the United States. For. Sci. 36(3):680-692.