A simple model of hysteresis in employment under exchange rate uncertainty

Scottish Journal of Political Economy

Volumn 46, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 260-286

  Belke, Ansgar ^a   Göcke, Matthias ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EMPLOYMENT; EXCHANGE RATE; HYSTERESIS;

EID: 0345493669     PISSN: 00369292     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1467-9485.00132     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. AKHTAR, M. A. and HILTON, S. (1984). Exchange rate uncertainty and international trade: some conceptual issues and new estimates for Germany and the United States. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, 9, pp. 7-16.
2. AMABLE, B., HENRY, J., LORDON, F. and TOPOL, R. (1991). Strong hysteresis: an application to foreign trade.. OFCE Working Paper 9103. Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques, Paris.
3. AMABLE, B., HENRY, J., LORDON. F. and TOPOL, R. (1994). Strong hysteresis versus zero-root dynamics. Economics Letters, 44, pp 43-47.
4. ARIZE, A. C. (1995). Trade flows and real exchange-rate volatility: an application of cointegration and error-correction modeling. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 6, pp. 37-51.
5. ASSEERY, A. and PEEL, D. A. (1991 ). The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports some new estimates. Economics Letters, 37, pp. 173-77.
6. BAILEY, M. J., TAVLAS, G. S. and ULAN, M. (1987). The impact of exchange rate volatility on export growth: some theoretical considerations and empirical results. Journal of Policy Modelling, 9, pp. 225-43.
7. BALDWIN, R and KRUGMAN, P (1989). Persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, pp. 635-54.
8. BELKE, A. and GÖCKE, M. (1994). Starke Hysteresis auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. ZWS - Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaften, 114, pp. 345-77.
9. BELKE, A. and GÖCKE, M. (1998). Aggregation of Employment Hysteresis: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter?, Paper to be presented at the 1999 EEA Conference, 'Real Options' Session, Santiago de Compostela/Spain, and Invited Paper Prepared for the Fifth International Conference of the Society for Computational Economics 'Computing in Economics and Finance', Organized Session 'Hysteresis in Models of Economic Analysis', June 24-26, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, U.S.A. IEW Discussion Papers, Institut für Europäische Wirtschaft, 23, Ruhr-Universität Bochum.
10. BELKE, A. and GROS, D. (1997). Estimating the costs and benefits of EMU: the impact of external shocks on labour markets. Center for Economic Research Discussion Papers, No. 9795, Tilburg/Netherlands and Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 135, pp. 1-48.
11. BELKE, A. and GROS. D. (1998). Evidence on the Costs of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability. Paper presented at the (1997). International Seminar on Macroeconomics (NBER and EEA), Gerzensee (Switzerland) Center for Economic Research Discussion Paper, 9814, Tilburg/Netherlands.
12. BELKE, A. and GROS, D. (1998a). How costly is intra-european exchange rate variability? Paper presented at the IMF Seminar, August, 28th, Washington, DC.
13. BENTOLILA, S. and BERTOLA, G. (1990). Firing costs and labour demand: how bad is eurosclerosis? review of economic studies, 57, pp. 381-402.
14. CABALLERO, R. J. (1991). On the sign of the investment-uncertainty relationship. American Economic Review, 81, pp. 279-87.
15. CALCAGNINI, G. and SALTARI, E. (1998). Real and financial uncertainty and investment decisions. University of Urbino. Faculty of Economics, Urbino, Italy. Mimeo.
16. CÔTÉ, A. (1994). Exchange rate volatility and trade - a survey. Working Paper 94-5, Bank of Canada, Ottawa.
17. Cox, J. C. and Ross, S. A. and RUBINSTEIN, M. (1979). Option pricing: simplified, a approach. Journal of Financial Economics, 7, pp. 229-63.
18. CROSS, R. (1994). The macroeconomic consequences of discontinuous adjustment: selective memory of non-dominated extrema. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 41, pp. 212-21.
19. CUSHMAN, D. O. (1983). The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade Journal of International Economics, 15, pp. 45-63.
20. CUSHMAN, D. O. (1986). Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk. Journal of International Economics, 5, pp. 361-79.
21. CUSHMAN, D. O. (1988). U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period. Journal of International Economics, 25, pp. 317-30.
22. DARBY, J., HUGHES HALLET, A., IRELAND, J. and PISCITELLI, L. (1997). The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the level of investment. Universities of Strathclyde and Glasgow. Mimeo, September (1997). Later published as CEPR Discussion Paper. No. 1896, May (1998).
23. DE GRAUWE, P. (1987). International trade and economic growth in the European monetary system. European Economic Review, 31, pp. 389-98.
24. DE GRAUWE, P. (I988). Exchange rate variability and the slowdown in growth of international trade. IMF Staff Papers, 35, pp. 63-84.
25. DE GRAUWE, P. and BELLEFROID, B. ( 1987). Long-run exchange rate variability and international trade. In S. Arndt, D. Richardson, (eds.), Real and Financial Linkages Among Open Economies, Cambridge, MIT Press.
26. DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK (1998). Wechselkursabhängigkeit des deutschen Außenhandels - Perspektiven unter den Bedingungen der Europäischen Währungsunion. Monatsberichte. Monthly Bulletin, January, pp. 49-59.
27. DIXIT, A. (1989). Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Political Economy, 97, pp. 620-38.
28. DIXIT, A. (1992). Investment and hysteresis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 6, 1/1992, pp. 107-32.
29. DIXIT, A. and PINDYCK, R. S. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton, NY.
30. DORNBUSCH, R. (1987). Open economy macroeconomics: new directions. NBER Working Paper No. 2372, August (1987).
31. GÖCKE, M. (1993). Starke Hysteresis im Außenhandel. Ph.D. diss., Physica, Heidelberg.
32. GÖCKE, M. (1994). Micro-and macro-hysteresis in foreign trade. Aussenwirtschaft - Schweizerische Zeitschrift für internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, 49, IV, pp. 555-78.
33. GORDON, R. (1996). Macroeconomic policy in the presence of structural maladjustments. Paper presented at the OECD-Conference 'Interactions Between Structural Reform. Macroeconomic Policies and Economic Performance', Paris, January.
34. GOTUR, P. (1985). Effects of exchange rate volatility on trade. IMF Staff Papers, 32, pp.475-512.
35. GROS, D. (1987). Exchange rate variability and foreign trade in the presence of adjustment costs. Département des Sciences Economiques. Working Paper No. 8704, Louvain-la-Neuve.
36. GUISO, L. and PARIGI, G. (1997). Investment and demand uncertainty. Ente 'Luigi Einaudi' and Reasearch Department Banca d'ltalia. Rome. Mimeo, September (1997).
37. HOOPER, P. and KOHLHAGEN, S. W. (1978). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 8, pp. 483-511.
38. KENEN, P. B. and RODRIK, D. (1986). Measuring and analyzing the effects of short-term volatility in real exchange rates. Review of Economies and Statistics, 68, pp. 311-19.
39. KORAY, F. and LASTRAPES, W. D. (1989). Real exchange rate volatility and U.S. bilateral trade: VAR, approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, pp. 708-12.
40. KRUGMAN, P. (1986). Pricing to market when the exchange rate changes. NBER Working Paper no. 1926. National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge/MA.
41. KRUGMAN, P. (1989). Exchange Rate Instability. MIT Press, Cambridge/MA.
42. KULATILAKA, N. and KOGUT, B. (1996). Direct investment, hysteresis, and real exchange rate volatility. Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, 10, pp. 12-36.
43. MAKIN, J. H. (1976). Eurocurrencies and the evolution of the international monetary system. In C. H. Stern, J. H. Makin and D. E., Logue (eds.), Eurocurrencies and the International Monetary System. Washington/DC, American Enterprise Institute, pp. 17-53.
44. PERÉE, E. and STEINHERR, A. (1989). Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade. European Economic Review, 33, pp. 1241-64.
45. PINDYCK, R. S. (1988). Irreversible investment, capacity choice and uncertainty. American Economic Review, 78, pp. 969-85.
46. PINDYCK, R. S. (1991). Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment. Journal of Economic Literature, 29, pp. 1110-48.
47. PISSARIDES, C. A. (1996). The need for labour market flexibility in European Economic and Monetary Union. Centre for Economic Performance. London School of Economics, May. Mimeo.
48. SAPIR, A. and SEKKAT, K. (1990). Exchange rate volatility and international trade. In P. De Grauwe and L. Papademos, (eds.). The European Monetary System in the 1990s. Longman, London, 182-98.
49. THURSBY, J. G. and THURSBY, M. C. (1987). Bilateral trade flows, the Linder hypothesis, and exchange risk. Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, pp. 488-95