Energy Resources and Global Development

Science

Volumn 302, Issue 5650, 2003, Pages 1528-1531

  Chow, Jeffrey ^a   Kopp, Raymond J ^a   Portney, Paul R ^a  

^a RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMBUSTION; ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS;

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES; GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM;

ENERGY RESOURCES;

CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON MONOXIDE; FOSSIL FUEL; FUEL; HYDROGEN SULFIDE; METHANE; NATURAL GAS; NITROUS OXIDE; PETROLEUM;

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY; DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS; ENERGY RESOURCE; ENVIRONMENT; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE;

AGRICULTURE; ARTICLE; BIOMASS; DEVELOPING COUNTRY; ECONOMIC ASPECT; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ELECTRICITY; ENERGY CONSUMPTION; ENERGY RESOURCE; FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT; GREENHOUSE GAS; INCOME; INDUSTRIALIZATION; NUCLEAR ENERGY; POLITICAL SYSTEM; PRIORITY JOURNAL;

EID: 0344827219     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1091939     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. We analyzed year 2000 data from 211 countries, using the World Bank's method of distinguishing between low-, middle-, and high-income countries according to GNI/pop. We refer to low- and middle-income countries jointly as developing countries, and high-income countries are considered industrialized or developed countries. Of the countries considered in this analysis, approximately 75% fall into the former category. Countries are low-income if GNI/pop is less than U.S. $750 (69 countries, including the Congo, India, and Indonesia); middle-income if GNI/pop is between U.S. $750 and $9250 (85 countries, including Argentina, Mexico, and Turkey); or high-income if GNI/pop is greater than U.S. $9250 (57 countries, including the United States, Japan, and Western Europe). We have also identified those countries comprising the poorest 10% (such as Cambodia, Chad, and Tajikistan) and the richest 10% (such as the United States, Singapore, and the United Kingdom). The developing-country group is heterogeneous in resource endowments and development conditions, whereas classification as a developed country does not imply a preferred or final stage of development. GNI/pop is a convenient criterion among many metrics for levels of development and does not necessarily reflect development status. GNI, GDP, and population data for 2000 are drawn from the World Development Indicators 2002, published by the World Bank. Population, GNI/pop, and income categorization for all 211 countries are available at (31).
2. These numbers are based on year 2001 data from (29). Reserves include only resources that are identified as economically and technically recoverable with current technologies and prices. Other resources with foreseeable or unknown potential for recovery exist but are not included in this report, because estimates are often highly speculative and unreliable, particularly estimates of resources in developing countries. Reserve estimates tend to expand overall with time, as technology increases the number of economically recoverable reserves.
3. These numbers are based on year 2001 data from (30). This estimate includes reasonably assured resources (RARs) identified by the IAEA and does not include other potential resources and secondary supplies from reprocessed uranium, reenriched uranium, and highly enriched uranium from the dismantlement of nuclear weapons. A list of reserves by country is available at (31).
4. However, 42% of uranium used for nuclear electricity generation is currently supplied by secondary sources, so the actual consumption of uranium reserves is less than this estimate suggests.
5. It should be noted that the three major fossil fuels are not perfect substitutes for each other, particularly in the short term. Petroleum derivatives offer versatility in use and ease of transport that make them ideal for the transportation sector. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel but generates the most airborne pollutants. Hence, coal-fired electricity generation plants are gradually giving way to gas-fired plants. Natural gas is the cleanest-burning and most energy-efficient fossil fuel, but supply is currently hindered by insufficient extraction and transport infrastructure, such as regasification and storage facilities for importing liquefied natural gas from overseas.
6. Similarly, the majority of reserves in the developed countries also are concentrated in a relatively few nations, notably the United States and several of the wealthier oil-producing Middle Eastern states. A map and list of global reserves by country as well as a more detailed descriptive analysis are available at (31).
7. These numbers are based on year 2000 data from (29).
8. Renewables include energy generated from sources such as geothermal, wind, solar, wood, and waste fuels. This percentage does not include the domestic use of fuelwood and other biomass common in developing countries, but does include energy derived from electric power generation using these fuels.
9. Global maps and tables of consumption by energy source are available at (31).
10. S. L. D'Apote, in Biomass Energy: Data, Analysis and Trends (International Energy Agency, Vienna, 1998), pp. 1-31.
11. The year 2000 data used to examine sectoral uses of energy are drawn from Energy Balances of the OECD Countries and Energy Balances of the Non-OECD Countries, compiled by the International Energy Agency. These data exist only for 133 countries and are not directly comparable to the data discussed above for 200-plus countries provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. This data set includes the consumption of combustible renewables and waste, such as fuelwood, whereas the EIA data set does not. Inferences drawn from direct comparison of the two different sets of data and analyses would not be robust. More detailed descriptions of end-use sectors as defined by the International Energy Agency are available at (31).
12. Residential energy consumption in many regions that are included among the developing states consists predominantly of combustible materials and waste such as fuelwood, manure, and other biofuels, rather than the forms of energy described in the analyses above. Biomass is often the only available and affordable source of energy for basic needs, such as cooking and heating, for large portions of rural populations and for the poorest sections of urban populations in developing countries.
13. Maps and tables of per-capita aggregate energy consumption by country are available at (31).
14. Country tables of per-capita energy consumption by end use are available at (31).
15. These numbers are based on year 2000 data from (29). Per-capita consumption is calculated by dividing aggregate energy consumption by population and does not account for imports and exports of energy embodied in the trade of goods.
16. It is generally accepted practice to use GDP rather than GNI when discussing the energy intensity of economic output. Our conclusions would be no different if we used GNI. Global maps and tables of aggregate energy consumption per dollar of GDP are available at (31).
17. IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (IPCC, Cambridge, 2001).
18. Coastal areas and plains are ideal for wind power, sunny areas such as equatorial regions for solar power, and volcanic basins for geothermal energy.
19. These fuels are also often used inefficiently because of poor technology (such as a lack of closed stoves or ventilation) and have negative health effects, depending on their method of use. Thus, the health hazards associated with traditional biomass are partly the consequence of sociocultural and developmental problems and can be mitigated with simple technological improvements.
20. In the case of hydrogen fuel cells, one must also consider the environmental consequences of increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere, should this technology be widespread in the future.
21. D. Burtraw et al., Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 97-31 (Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 1997).
22. A. Blackman, W. Harrington, Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 98-21 (Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 1998).
23. A. Krupnick et al., Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 98-46 (Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 1998).
24. D. Burtraw, K. Palmer, Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 03-15 (Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 2003).
25. S. Anderson, R. Newell, Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 02-68 (Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 2003).
26. Renewables referred to in this discussion include electricity generated from geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and waste sources, but not domestically combusted fuels.
27. These numbers are based on year 2000 data from (29).
28. J. Darmstadter, Resources for the Future Issue Brief 02- 10 (Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 2002).
29. International Energy Annual 2001 Edition [EIA, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 2003].
30. Analysis of Uranium Supply to 2050 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 2001)
31. See www.rff.org/energyresources/.
32. Oil Gas J. 99, 125 (2001)
33. The authors thank J. Darmstadter and R. Newell for reviewing and providing comments on this paper.