Impeachment Politics in the 1998 Congressional Elections

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 114, Issue 1, 1999, Pages 31-51

  Jacobson, Gary C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0344407712     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2657990     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. The Democrats picked up seats in 1934 during the New Deal realignment; both parties added seats in 1902, when the House grew by twenty-nine seats, but the president's Republicans picked up fewer than the opposition Democrats and so were relatively weaker after the election.
2. Bernard Sanders, the lone independent who normally votes with the Democrats, was also reelected.
3. Karen Foerstel, "Senate: GOP on the March," Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 24 October 1998, 2868-2872.
4. Based on nearly complete but preliminary vote totals reported in Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 7 November 1998, 3027-3035.
5. th Congress in 1999, compared to 115 in 1993, 86 in 1995, and 78 in 1997.
6. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
7. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
8. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
9. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
10. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
11. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
12. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
13. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
14. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
15. nd ed. (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1997), chaps. 4 and 7; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).
16. Real disposable income per capita was 8 percent higher in 1998 than it had been in 1994.
17. The survey question was, "How would you rate economic conditions in this country today, excellent, good, only fair, or poor?"
18. Douglas A. Hibbs, The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1987), chap. 5; Richard A. Brody, Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1991), chap. 5.
19. Douglas A. Hibbs, The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1987), chap. 5; Richard A. Brody, Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1991), chap. 5.
20. The survey question was, "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?"
21. I estimated a variety of plausible models and got forecasts ranging from small Democratic gains to medium Democratic losses; no particular specification was superior on theoretical grounds, and all electoral forecasting models have very wide error bands. See Nathaniel Beck, "We Should be Modest: Forecasting the 1992 Election," The Political Methodologist (Fall 1992): 23-27.
22. nd ed. (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1983), chaps. 3-6.
23. In the thirteen postwar midterms prior to 1998, the president's party's challengers have defeated only 33 incumbents, an average of 2.5 per election; the most victories (six) were won in a year in which voters were irate at incumbents of both parties. See Gary C. Jacobson, "Deficit Cutting Politics and Congressional Elections," Political Science Quarterly 108 (Fall 1993): 390-391.
24. Jeffrey Katz and Dan Carney, "Clinton's Latest, Worst Troubles Put His Whole Agenda on Hold," Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 24 January 1998, 165.
25. Gary C. Jacobson, "Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946-86," American Political Science Review 83 (September 1989): 773-793.
26. Dan Carney with Carroll J. Doherty, "GOP Struggles To Find Strategy To Deal With Starr Fallout," Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 14 March 1998, 643-644.
27. "Thrust and Parry: Gingrich v. Clinton," Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 2 May 1998, 1128.
28. Karen Foerstel, "Clinton's Address Fails to Defuse Ticking Time Bomb of Starr Report, Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 22 August 1998, 2281.
29. Data are from ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, Gallup/CNN/USA Today, Los Angeles Times, Harris, and Pew Research Center polls at http://www.pollingreport.com/ scandals.htm. Question wordings differ, making the stability of expressed opinions even more impressive.
30. Gallup Poll taken 7-8 August 1998 at http://www.gallup.com/polltrends/opinion.htm.
31. Gallup Poll of 11 September 1998 at http://www.gallup.com/POLL_ARCHIVES/98012.htm.
32. CBS News/New York Times Poll, 22-23 September 1998 at http://www.pollingreport.com/scan dal2.htm.
33. John Zaller, "Monica Lewinsky's Contribution to Political Science," PS: Political Science & Politics 31 (June 1998): 182-189.
34. Gallup Poll of 28 January 1998 at http://www.gallup.com/POLL_ARCHIVES/980131a.htm.
35. Pew Research Center Poll, 30 January-2 February 1998 at http://www.people-press.org/feb98 que.htm.
36. See footnote 21.
37. According to Federal Election Commission data, the six successful challengers had already spent between $648,000 and $1.25 million each by 15 October.
38. Gary C. Jacobson, "Reversal of Fortune: The Transformation of U.S. House Elections in the 1990s" in David Brady, John Cogan, and Morris P. Fiorina, Continuity and Change in Congressional Elections (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999).
39. For this analysis, I assume that the district's presidential preference is revealed by whether the average two-party vote for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 was above or below 53.5 percent. This is the point at which a regression of the House vote on the presidential vote predicts a majority for the Democrat; it exceeds 50 percent because Clinton ran ahead of his party's expected vote in both elections.