Evaluating the process of development in Egypt, 1980-97

International Journal of Middle East Studies

Volumn 32, Issue 2, 2000, Pages 255-275

  Adams Jr , Richard H ^a  

^a WORLD BANK   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY; INCOME; POVERTY; QUALITY OF LIFE;

EGYPT;

EID: 0343628047     PISSN: 00207438     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0020743800021115     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Human Development Report (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), 10.
2. P. Smith, "Measuring Human Development" (mimeograph, University of Southampton, Southampton, U.K., 1992).
3. Even the Gini coefficient, probably the most widely used measure of income inequality, is currently available for only 41 of 112 developing countries listed in the 1998-99 World Development Report (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1998-99).
4. These five questions represent a modified and expanded version of the original 1990 Human Development Index (see UNDP, Human Development Report), which focused on just three variables: life expectancy, adult literacy, and income. However, subsequent revisions to the 1990 HDI added variables relating to poverty and inequality (see UNDP, Human Development Report [New York: Oxford University Press, 1998], 15). Yet none of these revisions to the HDI has added the variable of productivity.
5. These five questions represent a modified and expanded version of the original 1990 Human Development Index (see UNDP, Human Development Report), which focused on just three variables: life expectancy, adult literacy, and income. However, subsequent revisions to the 1990 HDI added variables relating to poverty and inequality (see UNDP, Human Development Report [New York: Oxford University Press, 1998], 15). Yet none of these revisions to the HDI has added the variable of productivity.
6. See, for example, B. Hansen, The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth: Egypt and Turkey (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992); R. Adams, Jr., "Development and Structural Change in Rural Egypt, 1952 to 1982," World Development 13, 6 (1985): 705-19; and M. Abdel-Fadil, The Political Economy of Nasserism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980).
7. See, for example, B. Hansen, The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth: Egypt and Turkey (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992); R. Adams, Jr., "Development and Structural Change in Rural Egypt, 1952 to 1982," World Development 13, 6 (1985): 705-19; and M. Abdel-Fadil, The Political Economy of Nasserism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980).
8. See, for example, B. Hansen, The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth: Egypt and Turkey (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992); R. Adams, Jr., "Development and Structural Change in Rural Egypt, 1952 to 1982," World Development 13, 6 (1985): 705-19; and M. Abdel-Fadil, The Political Economy of Nasserism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980).
9. Mubarak assumed the presidency of Egypt in October 1981, after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat.
10. UNDP, Human Development Report (1990), 19.
11. Ibid. (1998).
12. In the 1998 HDI, Egypt was ranked 112. Among the forty developing countries selected as comparison countries, Chile was ranked the highest (31) and Ethiopia the lowest (169) (ibid., Table 1). For a full list of the forty developing countries, see Table 1 in this article.
13. A. Richards and J. Waterbury, Political Economy of the Middle East (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996).
14. F. El-Zanaty, E. Hussein, G. Shawky, A. Way, and S. Kishor, Egypt Demographic and Health Survey, 1995 (Cairo: National Population Council, 1996), Table 2.6.
15. UNDP, Human Development Report (1998), 151.
16. For example, in 1995, the female literacy rate was 38.8 percent in Egypt and 55.8 percent in Syria; in the same year, female literacy stood at 76 percent in Bolivia and 96.2 percent in Argentina.
17. El-Zanaty et al., Egypt Demographic and Health Survey, Table 2.5.
18. R. Adams, Jr., Development and Social Change in Rural Egypt (Syracuse, N.Y.: Syracuse University Press, 1986).
19. Richards and Waterbury, Political Economy, 119.
20. For example, the 1995-96 CAPMAS survey included 14,805 households, 6,622 of them urban and 8,183 of them rural.
21. Minimum food requirements for the 1981-82 to 1995-96 CAPMAS studies equal the cost of diet per adult equivalent unit to yield energy intake of 2,200 calories per day (see Institute of National Planning (Egypt), Egypt Human Development Report (Cairo: Nasr City, 1996), 117.
22. To estimate minimum non-food expenditures for the 1981-82 to 1995-96 CAPMAS studies, Engel curves were fitted by which the food share was regressed on the log of total per capita expenditure and household size. For more detail, see ibid., 118.
23. See Adams, "Development and Structural Change," Table 1.
24. The IFPRI study was done in collaboration with the Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Supply, and the U.S. Agency for International Development.
25. Average annual per capita expenditures (in 1997 terms) in the 1997 IFPRI study are 1,944 Egyptian pounds ($365) versus 1,417 Egyptian pounds ($411) for the 1995-96 CAPMAS survey. In both studies, expenditures are measured as the sum of total food expenses, total non-food expenses, and an estimated use or actual purchase value of durable goods. Expenditures do not include the actual or imputed rental value of housing, because the 1997 IFPRI study found that 90 percent of rural households and 52 percent of urban households own their own houses.
26. A thorough examination of the reasons for the large difference between the two surveys would require access to the individual-household-level data of the 1995-96 CAPMAS study. However, although both the 1997 IFPRI and the 1995-96 CAPMAS surveys include data on the value of durable goods, such goods account in the IFPRI survey for 16 percent of total per capita expenditures, whereas in the CAPMAS survey, they account for only 3 percent of such expenditures.
27. Both the 1997 IFPRI and the 1995-96 CAPMAS survey find that the poor are more likely to have low levels of education and to be unemployed or work in casual jobs in agriculture or construction.
28. In the 1997 IFPRI survey, minimum food requirements equal the cost of diet per individual to meet minimum caloric requirements (as set by the World Health Organization) for men and women in thirteen different age categories (see G. Datt, D. Joliffe, and M. Sharma, "A Profile of Poverty in Egypt: 1997," final draft report [31 March 1998], International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., Table 1). In the IFPRI survey, minimum non-food requirements are established by reference to the expenditure patterns of those households whose food expenditures are close to the food poverty line.
29. By comparison, adjusting the average poverty lines from the 1995-96 CAPMAS survey (in Table 3) into 1997 terms yields an urban poverty line of 1,021 Egyptian pounds ($296) per capita per year and a rural poverty line of 734 Egyptian pounds ($213). In other words, the urban and rural poverty lines used in the IFPRI survey are about 21 percent and 18 percent higher, respectively, than those used in the 1995-96 CAPMAS survey.
30. In the absence of reliable records, there has always been much uncertainty about the actual number of Egyptians working abroad. However, over the years, the remittances sent back to Egypt by workers living abroad have shown a generally upward trend. For example, net annual workers' remittances averaged $2,516 million a year in 1981-83; $3,495 million in 1987-89; and $4,484 million in 1993-95. Yet because these figures include only remittances that enter Egypt through official channels, they tend to underestimate the large proportion of remittances (perhaps $1,500 million a year) that enter the country by unofficial means.
31. For more on the slow pace of structural reform in Egypt, see I. Harik, Economic Policy Reform in Egypt (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 1997).
32. G. Amin, Egypt's Economic Predicament: A Study in the Interaction of External Pressure, Political Folly and Social Tension in Egypt, 1960-1990 (New York: E. J. Brill, 1995), 115-16.
33. Datt et al., "Profile of Poverty."
34. Adams, Development and Social Change.
35. In a study of the determinants of international migration in three villages in rural Egypt, I found that landless agricultural workers had the highest propensity to work abroad (see R. Adams, Jr., "The Economic and Demographic Determinants of International Migration in Rural Egypt," Journal of Development Studies 30, 1 [1993]: 146-67). Most of these agricultural workers went to work in a neighboring Arab country, such as Iraq, Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia.
36. A. Richards, "The Egyptian Farm Labor Market Revisited," Journal of Development Economics 43, 2 (1994): 243.
37. S. Kuznets, "Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations: VIII, Distribution of Income by Size," pt. 2, Economic Development and Cultural Change 11, 2 (1963): 1-80; and idem, Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1966).
38. S. Kuznets, "Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations: VIII, Distribution of Income by Size," pt. 2, Economic Development and Cultural Change 11, 2 (1963): 1-80; and idem, Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1966).
39. M. S. Ahluwalia, "Income Inequality: Some Dimensions of the Problem," in Redistribution with Growth, ed. H. B. Chenery et al. (London: Oxford University Press, 1974); and idem, "Inequality, Poverty and Development," Journal of Development Economics 3, 4 (1976): 307-42.
40. M. S. Ahluwalia, "Income Inequality: Some Dimensions of the Problem," in Redistribution with Growth, ed. H. B. Chenery et al. (London: Oxford University Press, 1974); and idem, "Inequality, Poverty and Development," Journal of Development Economics 3, 4 (1976): 307-42.
41. K. Deininger and L. Squire, "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," World Bank Economic Review 10, 3 (1996): 565-91; S. Anand and S. Kanbur, "Inequality and Development: A Critique," Journal of Development Economics 41, 1 (1993): 19-43.
42. K. Deininger and L. Squire, "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," World Bank Economic Review 10, 3 (1996): 565-91; S. Anand and S. Kanbur, "Inequality and Development: A Critique," Journal of Development Economics 41, 1 (1993): 19-43.
43. In Table 8, it would have been preferable to compare growth in labor productivity across countries by using data on changes in paid employment in manufacturing (or industry). Unfortunately, however, reliable inter-country data for this variable are not available. Thus, Table 8 is based on the changes in paid non-agricultural employment across countries. Obviously, the category of "paid non-agricultural employment" is much larger than that for "paid employment in manufacturing (or industry)."
44. According to Table 9, the average annual rate of employment growth in the public sector was only 0.60 percent, which is much slower than that for the government sector at large (5.02%).
45. In 1992-96, Egyptian wheat and rice yields averaged 5,323 and 7,977 kilograms per hectare, respectively.
46. During the same period of time, 1980-84 and 1992-96, rice yields per hectare in Egypt also grew at an average rate of 2.9 percent per year.
47. As noted in Table 11, it is unclear what is happening with respect to rural inequality.
48. If the results from the 1997 IFPRI household survey are used as an end point, then income inequality in urban Egypt as measured by the Gini coefficient increased by about 20 percent.
49. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, "Both the [Egyptian] government and the IMF admit that GDP needs to grow by an average 7 percent annually to create prosperity, while the IMF calculates that a rate of at least 4 percent is necessary to keep the country's unemployment situation stable" (Economist Intelligence Unit, Egypt Country Report [first quarter 1995] [London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 1995], 9).
50. H. Handy et al., "Egypt: Beyond Stabilization, Toward a Dynamic Market Economy," Occasional Paper 163 (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 1998), 8.