Regional integration in Central Asia: Current economic position and prospects

Central Asian Survey

Volumn 15, Issue 3-4, 1996, Pages 369-386

  Dieter, Heribert ^a  

^a Villa Borsig   (Germany)

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EID: 0343319529     PISSN: 02634937     EISSN: None     Source Type: Trade Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/02634939608400957     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. For example, an examination of the Fergana Valley, an old cultural region, demonstrates the nonsensical distribution of this valley among Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Two parts of the valley that belong to Uzbekistan are separated by an area belonging to Tajikistan. Today, the Fergana Valley is a hotbed of ethnic tension (cf. Kößler, 1993, p 26). In 1990, the rivalries between the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks led to bloody confrontations in Osh, Kyrgyzstan's second largest city.
2. At this time, the future economic development is completely uncertain. Although prescriptions for the transformation of individual sectors of the economies do exist, there continues to be a lack of coherent concepts addressing the overall transition process.
3. A distinction must be made between regional cooperation which does not involve the partial relinquishment of sovereign rights, and regional integration which requires that specific, limited sovereign rights of the nations are subordinated to a supranational institution.
4. The Cyrillic alphabet was introduced during the second half of the 1930s, with the intention of documenting Central Asia's orientation towards Moscow (cf. Kößler, 1993, pp 26-27).
5. One example is the expansion of cotton processing. To date, Uzbekistan, the world's fourth-largest producer of cotton, has been processing only one-tenth of its harvest in its own country (cf. Marnie & Whitlock, 1993, p 40).
6. Uzbekistan, for example, has been manufacturing transport planes. As late as February 1994, Uzbekistan delivered seven Model IL 76 TD planes to the People's Republic of China (cf. Wacker, 1994, p 3).
7. One of the difficulties encountered during the process of performing detailed examinations of the capacity of the individual branches of industry is the continuous lack of available and/or reliable data.
8. Buoyed by its natural gas exports, Turkmenistan's economic development during 1992/93 was relatively stable. However, 1994 brought a general economic slump which also eroded the basis for Turkmenistan's autarchic efforts. The 15 per cent reduction in the GDP and 25 per cent reduction in industrial production during 1994 emphasized that even Turkmenistan's prospects are none too favourable without cooperation with its Central Asian neighbours (cf. Götz, 1995, p 5).
9. In the following referred to as Interstate Council of Central Asia.
10. Significantly larger development disparities exist within the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). In 1993, Indonesia's per capita GNP was US$740 and US$850 in the Philippines. By contrast, Singapore's GNP was US$19,850 and even the Malaysian per capita GNP of US$3,140 was more than four times as great as that of Indonesia (cf. World Development Report, 1995, pp 162-163.).
11. For example, the grim consequences of this process of draining the sciences have already surfaced in Kyrgyzstan. Because of the meagre salaries that the government can afford to pay, the most capable scientists are leaving public sector employ for new positions within the private sector, frequently far below their educational qualifications. Subsequently, the use of foreign advisers in areas such as economic research continues to increase, as a direct result of this lack of native experts and the insufficient efforts made to fill this gap. Whether the transition processes can be successfully completed under such conditions, remains to be seen.
12. Between 1992 and 1994, bi- and multilateral transfer payments totalled US$800 million. In June 1994, an agreement was reached that provided another US$550 million for the upcoming 12-month period, representing approximately 10 per cent of the country's gross domestic product. Kyrgyzstan receives the largest per capita financial aid of any of the CIS countries and is considered a model for reform. In the opinion of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Kyrgyzstan's enthusiasm for reforms rivals that of the Baltic states (cf. Helmschrott et al., 1995, p 22). Priewe and Herr have developed an alternative development strategy for Kyrgyzstan that seeks to avoid the negative consequences of a transformation strategy based on a policy of monetarism and to relatively quickly stabilize the overall economic performance (cf. Priewe & Herr, 1995).
13. The Kyrgyz newspaper Bishkek at Night published a massive criticism of the services rendered by Western advisers. According to the paper, the advice provided by foreign specialists is so far removed from the realities in Kyrgyzstan that its implementation frequently has the opposite of the intended effect. Considering the negative example of Africa, financial aid is accepted, but advice rejected (cf. Bishkek at Night, 3 July, 1995, p 1).
14. However, several other explanations for the relative stable development in Uzbekistan have been proposed in the literature on this subject. Helmschrott et al.1, for example, suggest that the pace of reforms in Uzbekistan has been slower than in other CIS states and that Uzbekistan was relatively quickly able to find distribution channels for its raw materials, particularly cotton and gold (cf. Helmschrott et al., 1995, p 19).
15. Brown is among those who are sceptical of the success of coordinating economic policies based on divergent concepts (Brown, 1994, p 35).
16. The concept of promoting the cultivation of cotton had a prominent advocate. In 1919, Lenin demanded a more intensive irrigation of Central Asia to achieve independence from cotton imports (cf. Klötzli, 1994, p. 18).
17. 3 per capita per year between 1970 and 1992, even the water consumption of the USA was significantly lower than that of the Central Asian countries (cf. World Development Report, 1995, pp 226-227).
18. 3 per hectare and a simultaneous increase in yield from 2.2 tonnes to 2.93 tonnes per hectare (cf. Central Asia Quarterly Labyrinth, Vol 2, No 1 - Winter 1995, pp 30-31).
19. 2 lake along the canal (cf. Klötzli, 1994, p 9).
20. For example, Rosegrant and Binswanger have suggested the establishment of tradable water rights to arrive at an efficient allocation of the scarce resource of water (cf. Rosegrant/Binswanger, 1994, p 1613). Such a measure would require a joint effort of all states of Central Asia.
21. However, from the very beginning, the format and structure of this single economic territory were unclear. The lack of a proper economic concept for this region was the primary cause for its process of economic disintegration, e.g. as a result of the abolishment of the rouble zone.
22. Sagorskij calls the CIS's decision-making processes the 'consensus of interested parties' (cf. Sagorskij, 1995, p 264). Since the individual member countries are not required to adopt specific resolutions, a systematic future development of the CIS appears to be impossible.
23. On 1 January 1995, the heads of state of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan signed an agreement on the establishment of a customs union.
24. Uzbekistan is currently in the process of negotiating its conditions of accession. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are still debating the issue of membership and have not yet applied for admission.
25. Brown, Bess (1995) 'Die Angst Zentralasiens vor dem russischen Bären', Internationale Politik, Vol 50, No 11 (November), pp 51-56.
26. Brown, Bess (1994) 'Three Central Asian states form economic union', RFE/RL Research Report, Vol 3, No 13, 1 April, pp 33-35.
27. Dieter, Heribert (ed.) (1996) Regionale Integration in Zentralasien (Marburg: Metropolis Verlag).
28. Dieter, Heribert (1995) 'Die Förderung der regionalen Integration als Aufgabe der Personellen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit'. Jahresbericht 1994 der Deutschen Stiftung für internationale Entwicklung (DSE), pp 22-25.
29. Dieter, Heribert (1994) Australien und die APEC. Die Integration des fünften Kontinents in den asiatischpazifischen Wirtschaflsraum (Hamburg: Institut für Asienkunde).
30. Freitag-Wirminghaus, Rainer ( 1993) 'Wer hat die besseren Karten? Der Einfluß Irans und der Türkei in Aserbaidschan und Zentralasien', Blätter des iz3W, No 188, March/April, pp 53-57,
31. Götz, Roland (1995) 'Die Wirtschaft der Mitglieder der Gemeinschaft unabhängiger Staaten (GUS), Teil III: Die zentralasiatischen Staaten Kasachstan, Kirgistan, Tadschikistan, Turkmenistan und Usbekistan', BIOST: Aktuelle Analysen, No 31.
32. Halbach, Uwe (1994a) 'Integrationsbemühungen in Zentralasien', BIOST: Aktuelle Analysen, No 21.
33. Halbach, Uwe (1994b) 'Nasarbajews Eurasische Union', BIOST: Aktuelle Analysen, No 36.
34. Helmschixm, H., Röhm, T., Schönherr, S. and Ufer, H. (1995) 'GUS: Haben die fünf zentralasiatischen Staaten die wirtschaftliche Talsohle erreicht?', Ifo-Schnelldienst, No 20, pp 14-25.
35. Klötzli, Stefan (1994) 'The water and soil crisis in Central Asia - a source for future conflicts?', Occasional Paper, Center for Security Studies and Peace Research, No 11, May.
36. Kößler, Reinhart (1993) 'Moskaus Kolonialismus: Das Erbe der sowjetischen Nationalitätenpolitik', Blätter des iz3W, No 188, March/April, pp 24-27.
37. Marnie, Sheila and Whitlock, Erik (1993) 'Central Asia and economic integration', RFE/RL Research Report, Vol 2, No 14, 2 April, pp 34-44.
38. OECD (1995): Regional Integration and the Multilateral Trading System. Synergy and Divergence (Paris).
39. Priewe, Jan and Herr, Hansjörg (1995) 'Entwicklungsstrategien für Transformationsökonomien am Beispiel der Republik Kirgistan - ein Diskussionsbeitrag', Osteuropa-Wirtschaft, Vol 40, No 1, pp 51-71.
40. Rosegrant, Mark W. and Binswanger, Hans P. (1994) 'Markets in tradeable water rights: potential for efficiency gains in developing country water resource allocation', World Development, Vol 22, No 11, pp 1613-1625.
41. Sagorskij, Andrej (1995) 'Was für eine GUS erfüllt ihren Zweck?' Aussenpolitik, Vol 46, 3rd Quarter, pp 263-270.
42. Senti, Richard (1994) 'Die Integration als Gefahr für das GATT', Außenwirtschaft, Vol 49, No 1, pp 131-150.
43. Wacker, Gudrun (1994) 'Neue "Seidenstraße" oder neues "Great Garne"? Li Pengs Reise nach Usbekistan, Turkemistan, Kirgistan und Kasachstan'. BIOST, Aktuelle Analysen, No 32.
44. Winterberg, Jörg (1995) 'Wirtschaftliche Transformation in Osteuropa - Lehren aus dem Marshall-Plan?' Aussenpolitik, Vol 46, 3rd Quarter, pp 271-279.
45. World Bank (1995) World Development Report 1995 (Washington: Oxford University Press).
46. World Trade Organization (1995) The Results of the Uruguay Round of Multi-lateral Trade Negotiations. The Legal Texts (Geneva).